Saturday, June 24, 2006

The ODDS and ENDS of Soccer Betting!

I thought I was one damn BIG gambler (chance gamer) when I walk to the Singapore Pools outlet to place my $100 per match bets. My ego shrunk when the uncle wearing slippers in front of me put in a whopping of $4500 worth of bets. So where is the National Council on Problem Gambling (NCPG) ? ....nowhere to be seen...anyway who needs them when Singaporeans have been so lucky winning on the bets during the World Cup. Yes, Argentina is SURE to Mexico tonight...who needs the NCPG when making money as easy as taking a bet on Argentina.

If you have A-level (high school) maths and have an interest in soccer betting, I'll be able to make you see how lucky Singaporeans have been in the past weeks.

Although I was born Lucky, I don't take chances when it comes to soccer gambling. I acquired an expert system several years ago and it tells me the probability of each outcome and the confidence interval of the estimates. So what can I do with this system? ....Win money of course!
The system takes in historical and recent performance and tons of data to churn out probably estimates of various outcomes.

Take the Germany-Sweden match, my system says this:

Germany to Win : 55%
Sweden to Win: 16%
Draw : 29%

Based on these probabilities the Bookie (if he has no interest in making mone)
should pay for a $1 bet:

Germany to Win : $1.8
Sweden to Win : $6.25
Draw: $3.4

Now what I do is I take the output of my system and look for favorable bets on Singapore Pools. Singapore Pools payback for match:

Germany to Win : $1.42
Sweden to Win : $6.4
Draw: $3.9

You can see from the Singapore Pools payback that it is more favorable to bet on Sweden to Win or Draw. Betting on Germany is simply horrendous because Singapore Pools is paying so little for a win by Germany. However, this is the bet that most Singaporeans will go for. It is common gambler's fallacy to bet on favorites.

Now why do I say that Singaporeans have been lucky? ....They have been winning so far betting on favorities and on a strategy with the most negative mathematical expectation i.e. they have been winning against the casino. However, with each win the Singapore punter becomes bolder and surer. ...they are betting on Argentina like there is no tomorrow, they are almost 100% SURE Argentina will beat Mexico. The payback for Argentina winning on the Singapore Pools is $1.25.....they believe Argentina has more than an 80% chance of beating Mexico. My expert system says the probability is 65%.....this is a big difference. ...and international bookie odds suggest the upper bound of this probability figure about 69%.

Singaporean punters are so lucky they can win against the odds! For me I think I might be taking a chance with underdogs Mexico and Sweden tonight.....

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

Heard that many people are suicidal because Argentina draw with Mexico at 90 mins play time. Many bet $10K, $20K..etc for Argentina to win.

Anonymous said...

very chim. share how you calculate the odds leh. are you lucky this world cup? share tips also please

LuckySingaporean said...

If you don't know the basics of calculating odds, don't even start betting!

Once you can calculate odds, you instantly realise that Singapore Pools odds are damn lousy (ITS A RIPOFF).

Just look at Brazil-Ghana match, Singapore pools is paying 1.16 if you bet Brazil. This implies Brazil has a 86% probability of winning. ...based on my Expert system odds Brazil only has a 77% chance of winning....so right payback is 1.3 not 1.16. i.e. Singapore Pools makan 14cents from your winnings!!!

Odds are based on track record, current form, FIFA rankings, and formation. It is very complex system to work out the odds.

For Brazil-Ghana match, based on my system, the best Odds are to bet DRAW. Same for Spain-France match bet on DRAW to get maximum expectation. The probability of winning at least one of the 2 bets is 42%. Expectation is positive.

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