Thursday, November 23, 2006

Pop the Champagne! 3 Cheers to the Stock Market!!!

This posting is for stock investors.

Wow another new high!!! Looks like this market can do no wrong. High liquidity, record earnings announcements, merger and acquisitions. As of now the STI is 2841 and HSI is 19350, see making money is as easy as A-B-C or even easier, you don't even need to know anything except the phone number to your broker to ask him to BUY.
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Why am I writing about the stock market? ...Well about 6 months ago, I also wrote about the stock market : Read my June 2006 article here. At that time, no one wanted to buy stocks at all, doomsayers were saying there were all sorts of problems with the economy and analysts seem quite shy to recommend equities as an investment. Somehow my brain was wired quite differently from the experts so I did the horrid thing of buying into the falling market. Since most experts were hesitant and cautious, I guess I must have lived up to my name Lucky, the stock market rallied shortly after that non-stop to its current levels.
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Right now somehow things have gone into reverse, stocks have risen, every single analyst says there is more upside and there seem to be NOTHING, I repeat NOTHING that will go wrong. Although my name is Lucky, I think I'll not push my luck any further. I'm calling SELL in this market. When? Right at this very moment. Heck I may be totally wrong, PLEASE crucify me if I'm so I can learn a lesson. But for those who want a more convoluted explanation here it is:
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The recent rise in the stock market has discounted the best earnings levels and does not discount the risk of inflation and disruptive events such as terrorism, financial fraud etc. While the markets are nowhere near lofty levels of 2000, there are pockets of gross overvaluation. Put this together with the frenzy of M&A deals driven by liquidity in our economic system, I have doubts (though I can be wrong) that the current levels in the stock market can be sustained. My best judgement tells me today is a day to sell even as the market moves up, sell downs can occur fast and happen quickly.

I can be wrong. Of course I'm not as smart as Ho Ching. The markets may move up tons from here. ...but this is my assessment, you're welcome to flame me if I'm wrong.

15 comments:

Anonymous said...

maybe with Temasek planning to sell its shares to meet with a 49% ownership limit, then its time to buy Shin Corp shares?

Whispers from the heart said...

That one is a lelong every thai is waiting for ...

Like those patpong stuff .. real cheap and tacky.

freemason said...

Lucky: you are describing the 'contrarian' approach, a well-known secret to stock market dealers. yr earnings may be lesser, but you will get out alive, and should remain profitable over the long run ;-)
remember, stock market is akin to casino. be satisfied with modest profit & get out while u can. Its all a programme game ... always rely on NAV, earnings & economic fundamentals. buy on fact, sell on rumour ;-)

The Human Battery said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
LuckySingaporean said...

freemason,

You trying to tell me I'm a contrarian? As a collector of books on financial markets including rare out of print works, modelling the markets in fractals and chaos theory...developing valuation models in my spare time, I don't know I'm a ontrarian....Of course I know I'm a contrarian!

The reason I didn't use the word 'contrarian' is because people visit my blog to read the great achievements of the PAP might not know the word "contrarian". I can't write about the financial markets in jargon.

The Human Battery said...

Why are you people complaining so much? Look at me! I am a happy Human Battery living blissfully on my peaceful matrix island, governed by my all-knowing Matrix Master (MM).

Come here and pick the blue pill. You will be happy too :)

freemason said...

Lucky : hehe you didnt have to give all that away ;-). And, but of course, we are all here to mavellously praise, glorify and worship, singing praises to the Paternal Authority Patriarchs !
Al Heil !

The Human Battery said...

You sure are a happy lucky man, just like me. Life in the Matrix is good :)

LuckySingaporean said...

freemason,

You got it man. Making money is secondary. Life is good in this wonderful island with or without money.

Google said...

actually, lots of info on shares on google. It\'s just whether we want to find out more or not...

Anonymous said...

And that no man should be able to buy or to sell, save he that bears the glorious image of the one that rises from the seas.

freemason said...

yes yes life is goooodd.. mmmmm... marvellous without money , yes i can am the living testament to that.. YES I LOVE my poverty on this isle country club ! I cant stop singing their praises, i am so full bursting with JOY ! OHHhhh i can carry on forev... hmph ? wats that ? oh take blue pill time and replug Matrix Master charge every 15 mins or will revert to crash state... ok !

The Human Battery said...

> I can be wrong. Of course I\\\'m not as smart as Ho Ching

Yup, we are all stupid. She is clever. haha

freemason said...

anony 4:13 pm : ".... and their number was 66.6 ..." ?
?

Anonymous said...

Ho Ching is one of the most powerful women in Asia. Every feminist worth her 2 cents would want to be in her shoes. She's a role model for all women and had certainly achieved great things with her superior management skills and experience. Singaporeans are so lucky to have such talent around.