Friday, October 24, 2008

Is this the 'near-term' bottom?

FURTHER UPDATE: US Market is headed for a BLOODBATH. This is it - either it capitulates by hitting bottom and rebounding or it goes down and stay down.

UPDATE: I went shopping came back at 5pm and saw that the Yen has gain 4% against the US$. The Sing$ has sunk to 1.507 per US$. UK has sunk into recession. The Nikkei collapsed 10%. The HSI fell 8.3% and the STI fell by 8.6%. In my earlier post, I said bottom could be one of these 3 days from Wed to Friday. This looks like BLACK FRIDAY by all accounts. Someone said the bottom will be a day when the DOW open and plunge into the abyss then recover to close positive. Based on Dow futures (now -430pts), the DOW is set to open and plunge into the abyss....whether it will close +ve remains to be seen. Like I said all this is for fun, I hope everyone is still alright and watching with interest.

The time now is 12noon 24 Oct 2008. The STI is 1,660.19 ( -85.48).
....is the bottom???....at least in the near term?

It certainly feels like a bottom -the hopelessness, the despondency and fear.

They say nobody rings a bell at the bottom....I didn't hear any bells ringing...did you?

16 comments:

Anonymous said...

Lucky, bottom picking is dangerous. For all your intelligence, you will be as good as the monkey with a dart.

laucheow said...

That bell may well have been tolling for Greenspan's mea culpa while grilled by Congress yesterday. Now that the culprit for the housing bubble and meltdown has fessed up, maybe the market can recover now.

Today's extreme volatility in the Dow is often seen at turning points. VIX hit an intraday high of 96 today. Unheard of...

Let's see if your theory that the STI leads the Dow works. Asian markets are trending down badly now and if they end up negative, I'll short the SP500 overnight. Of course if the market continues today's end-of-day rally, then this trade is screwed and the bounce is in!

LuckySingaporean said...

Bottom picking is hardly a "science". I'm just saying from my years of observing the market, today seems to be a black black day. The type of day one sees once in a decade. The type of day when the towel is thrown into the ring.

I just chose 12noon as the time. half a day to sink to the bottom of ultimate darkness. A darkness for now that cannot get darker.

My intuition tells me it is near....

Bankdit said...

The very fact that you are calling a 'near-term' bottom means the market is not despondent enough.

There is still 'optimism'.

while said...

The type of day one sees once in a decade?

I think we are in the middle of a crisis one sees once in a century...

barttan said...

sti nose dive at near to 2pm to almost 1630...as of now at 3.04pm it is still struggling at 1611...crash is imminent...hold tight

laucheow said...

Heading for a 10% down day on the Nikkei and blood is in the streets. This, according to real men with balls, is the time to buy aggressively...

I live in the US and have never traded on the SGX. Why is there a 2-hr break in trading in the middle of the day? Does the market have to stop for lunch? What a quaint 3rd-world thing. And is it true that you can't short stocks? This would explain the steep plunges then.

Anonymous said...

of course, if you keep talking about bottom every week, every month, one day you can say, see i told you so! makes sense?

Anonymous said...

the man who said, when others are feaful be greedy has left a trail of broken hearts.

Anonymous said...

My intuition tells me it is NO WHERE near, the carnage is just starting brther.

Anonymous said...

wtf happened to the sing dollar?

LuckySingaporean said...

Anon 4:38,

The fall in Sing$ and the rise of Yen is consistent with what I observed in the my earlier posts. Most of the selling is funds dumping out of Asian and taking money back to US to patch up the black holes from the Lehman black holes. It has less to do with the recession which every already knows is coming.

Lets see if this selling continues into next week. If it does, I'm probably wrong. So is Jim Jubak.

AlphavilleSG said...

SGD is engineered by the govt. Let's just say it is the right signal, it should be down, looking at the 3-month SG govt bond, confidence in the PAP govt is steady if not strong. GBP is faring even worst. The only winner here is dollar, the US govt. probably couldn't believe how lucky they are to be the reserve currency of the world, able to fire off debt like no tomorrow.

Why do they ALWAYS leave it on a Friday!!!!

laucheow said...

Looks like we might be going for another crash after all. Futures have been halted limit down 5%. This means the Dow may gap down 400 or more on open. If there is no recovery on Friday, prepare for another Black Monday unless they intervene again. Count on another coordinated rate cut?

Anonymous said...

Way back when the stock market started in 2004, did you shout "toppish" evry weeks and months, all the way to 2007?

With the unfolding economic destructions yet to come our way, how the f anybody can come out with this bottom scenario is really beyond me.

Anonymous said...

Ecuse, Jimmy who? Other than warren buffet and known entities, dun pay attention to the other mccoys who come and go on the net.