Friday, October 24, 2008

This is IT!! US market set for a BLOODBATH!!!

A few days ago I posted that the bottom will be one of 3 days - Wed, Thursday or Friday. Everything seems to be coming together - the selling is going to climax on Wall Street tonight. In my post I said that I observed the the STI has been leading the DOW - on Thursday the DOW actually closed positive, but the STI began selling down today ...indeed it is leading to a bloodbath on Wall Street. There was a sharp drop in the US$/Yen rate this afternoon which indicates a massive unwinding of the Yen carry trade - probably the final unwinding of the carry trade.

"I would like to see a day when the DOW opens down by 800-1000pts and then rebound that will be the bottom " - Art Cashin, UBS Floor Trading Head NYSE.

Today the DOW Futures & the S&P Futures has hit limit down and halted from trading. There will be tremendous selling pressure when the market opens. Like I said in my post this selling is due to redemptions related in part to the collapse of Lehman Brothers - it is not due to any rational thinking or considerations.

I've prepared a lot of coffee to stay awake to watch the fireworks. There is this theory that there is a lot of money on the sidelines waiting to buy when the price is right. This market will crash and draw out this money from the sidelines and cause a rebound?....Lets see!!!!

Tonight is the night. I'm sure it will be a historic day on the financial markets.


AlphavilleSG said...

... or in interesting times like these, those with enterprise have not the cash, those with cash have not the enterprise...

AlphavilleSG said...

Here's what I rely on for stock analysis.

Anonymous said...

Is watching CNBC now. Only down 440 pts, that's not quite the capitulation I expected.

yawn . . . time for bed. May be I'll get up to watch the market close. Going by the last few days, all the major movement happened in the last hour of trade.

LuckySingaporean said...

anon 10:02,

Yeah me too drank all that coffee for nothing. Hmm...wonder if the market capitulated pre-open by hedge funds dumping futures.

Anonymous said...

There is massive intervention. Look at gold price. Then try to buy gold bullion from UOB at the spot price + say $10(small premium).

As u are aware, the PPT can do naked short/long and have full info.

Look also at individual stocks vs the indices.

LIBOR vs credit markets. Companies cant get credit.

Point is, we will not be able to predict. And it may be pointless.

Times have changed. The problem is that US now has the same social structure as SG and 3rd world nations. Top 1% controlling too much wealth. Middle class is now the new poor. And Bankers (esp Goldman, Morgan) has taken control. Trickle now economics is garbage. The only thing trickling down is piss.

A lot of the fear now is obviously manufactured. But soon will be self-fulfilling.

The amount of CDS is notional. The best way to resolve is really to get every1 to nett off before the next shoe falls. But will not happen.

Lets also see what happens when Goldman and gang forces oil to $50 and Iran\Russia cant finance their budget.

The parallels are there. You could say that the US banks (eg Morgan) made Hilter possible. Maybe its time for the Jews to step up to the plate and flex their mythical financial muscles for greater good. (For the record I dun think they are responsible for the mess. Bush, Paulson, etc, are mostly not Jewish)

Sometimes I wonder how the bankers at Goldman, the Republicans and our own beloved ministers sleep at night. apparently they are sleeping very well.

Anonymous said...

"Sometimes I wonder how the bankers at Goldman, the Republicans and our own beloved ministers sleep at night. apparently they are sleeping very well."

I think they are clueless and with tunnel vision.

AlphavilleSG said...

Another anonymous left a link where a commentator had the opinion that extreme poverty would be a outcome.

It is quite right to put in a reference of Mr Hitler, if the rich world finds in harder to get credit, what is happening in the third world? OPEC announcement incidentally achieve no effect.

The Yen went into rocket mode yesterday, so that is probably the reason ;)

Anonymous said...

Hi Lucky

Your coffee ready?