Thursday, December 11, 2008

Reuters : Singapore to be Asia's worst performing economy next year...

"Does he realise that Singapore’s GDP is only one-third of its external trade? Our external trade is 3 1/2 times that of our GDP, higher than Hong Kong. And if this economy ever falters, that’s the end of Singapore and its First World status. Denmark, Switzerland and Finland are part of Europe. You can fail and you’re still caught in the European situation. If you fail here, you go back to a Southeast Asian situation. Just look around you," - MM Lee during the debate on minister pay.
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"Sir, who designed this economy it looks horrendous to be so reliant on external trade. When HK had the same population as Singapore, its domestic economy was far bigger than ours relative to its external trade...."
- Lucky Tan
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Singapore seen emerging Asia's weakest economy
Thu, Dec 11, 2008
Reuters HONG KONG- Singapore is poised to be emerging Asia's worst-performing economy next year, when it is likely to remain entrenched in recession as the global downturn erodes demand for its exports, a Reuters poll shows. The poll predicts the island state's gross domestic product (GDP) will contract 1.1 percent in 2009. That marks a rapid deterioration in the economic environment from two months ago as the global financial crisis has deepened - a similar poll in late September forecast 4.6 percent GDP growth in 2009. "Singapore is particularly open to external trade - its export-to-GDP ratio is more than 180 percent, compared with an Asia average of 60-70 percent," said Eric Tsang, an analyst at Calyon in Hong Kong. "So as U.S., European and Japanese consumers spend less that will hurt Singapore's exports and have a knock-on effect on the rest of the economy." Economists see some rebound in 2010, forecasting 4.2 percent growth, but that would be well below average annual growth of 6.8 percent between 2003 and 2007. Singapore slipped into recession - defined as two quarters of negative quarterly growth - in the third quarter. Philip McNicholas, an economist at Ideal Global in Singapore, said the first quarter of next year would be especially tough - he forecasts GDP will drop at an annualised rate of 15 percent, seasonally adjusted, as exports plunge. "That will be mainly due to a collapse in U.S. sentiment," McNicholas said. "The U.S. plans a fiscal stimulus package early next year, but it's got to get that through Congress and to the people, so that may not be until the end of Q1 or the start of Q2." The government pledged $1.5 billion last month to help firms secure credit and said it was prepared to run a bigger budget deficit to boost the economy. Manufacturing accounts for about a quarter of the economy and factory output fell 12.7 percent in October from September, seasonally adjusted, and 12.6 percent from a year earlier, led by sliding electronics and drugs output. Manufacturing is expected to be harder hit next year as the downturn in advanced economies accelerates and job losses in the sector will rise as a result, analysts say. Rising unemployment will dent consumer spending, which is not being helped by a decline in tourism since August. As the weak economy will encourage the authorities to keep monetary policy loose, the Singapore dollar is likely to remain sluggish, the poll forecast.

30 comments:

The Hermit said...

So we are no longer in "Golden Age"?

Will our "Swiss standard of living" be affected?

No "more good years" left?

Are we still able to afford "Mee Siam Mai Hum"?

LuckySingaporean said...

Looks more like mee siam no ingredients please at 76% discount...

The Hermit said...

Why 76%? I thought it should be 66.6% discount with no ingredients?

Anonymous said...

Reuters better get your queen council ready.. singapore AG picking any words which can sue deframation. More good years to best law practice in SEA.

Anonymous said...

LKY must be the master of self fulfilling proficiencies.

On the one hand, he credits and pay handsomely himself for creating a "miracle" economy.

And on the other, he use this "miracle" economy to scare the population into how vulnerable the economy is.

Onlooker said...

Systematic destruction of internal production capability through the misguided GLCs.
IE there are used to be more independent companies that have production capabilities but the one who abuse the fund decided to Make themshelves look like they are talented elite.
PS-> TC having shares in Creative and murdering it slowly.
Plus overnuturing of "?elusive TALENTs?" who left at the first opportunity without serving bond.

Daniel Ling said...

Dun worry, it's ok... SGeans says
http://informationreadbyme.blogspot.com/2008/12/current-recessiondownturn-doesnt-affect.html

And also no problem if no job for 6mths.
http://informationreadbyme.blogspot.com/2008/12/its-ok-wait-no-its-not-ok-wait-it-might.html

sry for my shameless promoting.

Anonymous said...

Don't worry, no matter what there will be no protests or riots. Because 66% are OK and happy and has enough savings or a job to last it over the recession. The 33 %, sorry lah, see your MP for help. Or look out for charity free food, CDC grocery vouchers or ST pocket money fund for your kids.

When recession over, again 66% mandate and another golden period.

No big problem.

Anonymous said...

Old Fart love to brag and claim credit to everything that turned out good about Singapore.

So despite paying astronomically out of this universe salaries to these useless fat PAP cat ministers, Singapore's economy was still the first in asia to tank into recession, and now it also look like Singapore's economy would be the worst affected.

The 66.6% better forking wake up. This is precisely the 'good dose of bad governance' that Old Fart talked about when referring to the opposition, except its happening to his own government.

yamizi said...

Remember...when election comes...

Be a man...do the right thing!!!

Anonymous said...

It is hard for our domestic market to grow like HK when our leaders insists on depressing our wages in the name of keeping 'costs' down.

Land cost in Singapore is ridiculously high, and is set to go higher regardless the economic outlook.

How is our GDP suppose to grow, when more and more locals are contract workers whose wages are being depressed by the massive influx of 3rd World workers?

ArtBoon said...

US treasury sold at negative interest rate. It is like a black hole sucking money from the entire earth. Be prepared for severe winter coming up...

AlphavilleSG said...

On Wall St. everyone follows the same accepted accounting practises, the focus of financial results are hence optimised based on these standard. Why then was Enron able to make fools out of investors?

If the civil servants performance bonus is focus on the growth rate of GDP, the emphasis is clearly optimised to expand it.

How? Cheap labour, lax policy toward foreign workers, depressed wage lowers cost, offering low corporate tax, attracting foreign investment, maximising profit increasing export, pandering to commercial entities, levy taxation on consumer to expand revenue.

These may make economic sense on a macro level and probably few can question the 'economic quotient' of these mandarins.

But what the GDP of country doesn't represent is the wealth divide, the welfare of its citizen. A simple question suffice, what is the benefits of high GDP growth? Do we feel any part of it? Perhaps the most ridiculous claim to Singapore's GDP figure is the per capita breakdown.

tiredman said...

I still remember this saying: "There is no free lunch in Singapore”... (added by me) “but you must serve."

It seems like I did owe SG my life just because I am born in Singapore.

It seems like the gahman is telling me that she only has this type of jobs with these kinds of salaries... it is either you take it or you leave it... If you do not want to do, foreigners can replace you. Especially at this time when SG is in a recession. Whose fault? And again its the 66.6% of the citizen's fault ...

So, how? Unless you know how to fly away from this "country", you should LL sit at on corner and suck your thumb lo.

Clear eyed said...

Time to up the pay and bonuses of our extraordinary and super talented elites! If we don't, their morale and motivation will decline and our economy will falter and that's the end of Singapore!

yamizi said...

tiredman,

You're half right. Only combat-fit Singaporean male owe to the country with endless IPPT (RT) and various ICTs!

I wonder is there any avenue that we can seek into should our performance appraisal dropped due to these. Hmm.

Anonymous said...

Lets see how they're gonna request for a ministerial pay hike with the economy in shambles.

Anonymous said...

The people are suffering without food and jobs, and how the hell is Singapore a first world country with low class salaries in most jobs?

Now I seriously hope Singapore fails, and go back into the kampong era. Why not? Is there a difference?

Anonymous said...

Please don't fail. There is alot of difference for rich people like me. Recession a not i still eat, drink and be merry. Don't really bothers me.

Anonymous said...

Don't be poor in Singapore lah. Train and upgrade yourself through new skills and get a good paying job! Or do some small business and make it big from there. 66% can make it through the PAP system and hence support the PAP at every election, why not you?

That's why PAP knows what it is doing and doing it right. You think they are in power for so long and there is peace and stability for no good reason?

All this negative talk about economy worst performing is just noises only. Noises will die down after a while.

Anonymous said...

Surprised, casino stock in singapore got a rally at such a dangerous economy.. think sentosa Las Vegas plan going to be a sucess with so many punters buying up genting international today.

Anonymous said...

Train and upgrde our skills to avoid retrenchment?

When was the last time our politicians went for a skill-upgrading workshop?

Anonymous said...

be proud. worse performing but we don't look like it - most of us are still shopping and merry making. LOL.

Anonymous said...

anon 11.01 is a breathe of fresh air. LOL.

the rests need to see a psychiatrist. LOL.

xNSman said...

Anon 1.30am,

Yes, you right! Must... believe in our god-like jump out of the grave MM Lee and our leaders. Everything he does and says is correct and never wrong! Mussssssst believeeeee! Or else we are screwed!!!! Let's pray harder and things will get better. We citizens don't even have to think or do anything! Must believe.........!

Anonymous said...

Its the golden age alright...you lose billions, your daughter-in -law loses billions and your son is completely lost and yet all of you still keep a million dollar job and no one can touch you..now that a golden age for any family...reminds me of the Tang dynasty.

AlphavilleSG said...

Hmmm... No new stuff from Lucky...

Just a thought, anyone being hit by the layoffs button yet? By my account, pay cut simply doesn't cut cost as much as reducing head counts, look for companies hiring more part-timers too.

Anonymous said...

Singapore is a heaven for the rich and going to be hell for the poor.

Am i spouting nonsense?

patriot

Anonymous said...

anon 8:37am

the ministerial pay needs to adjust higher so that it can attract more talents to bring sg out of the recession. lol

www.albacete-3d.com said...

Well, I don't really suppose this is likely to have effect.