Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Economy : Looks really really bad...

You really have to go through the numbers to see what is happening to the economy...it is really as bad as it can get.

If you look at the exports to our major trading partners US & China, we are seeing falls of more than 50%. This is why I think JCS (Jobs Credit Scheme) will have very limited impact....the demand collapse is just too severe to overcome. At some point, the govt will have to have to implement off-budget measures because the fallout will simply be terrible. Where are the safety nets? Where are the safety nets? If you take it out too late, the bodies are going to hit the ground (not necessarily just figuratively speaking).
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Singapore January non-oil exports fall record 35% on-year
By Ng Baoying, Channel NewsAsia Posted: 17 February 2009 1322 hrs


SINGAPORE:
Singapore's January non-oil domestic exports suffered their largest year-on-year fall since records began in 1977, tumbling a worse-than-expected 35 per cent. January was also the ninth consecutive month of shrinking exports here. This comes on the back of falling demand from all of Singapore's top 10 markets amid a global economic slowdown. Compared to the previous year, exports to China fell by 52 per cent in January, while those to the US decreased by 50 per cent. Electronic products led the overall drop, falling by 38 per cent on-year after shrinking by 25 per cent in December. Non-electronic product exports fell by 32 per cent. Compared to December, non-oil domestic exports shrank 21 per cent. On a month-on-month, seasonally adjusted basis, exports fell by 3.2 per cent in January. This compares to December's 11 per cent slide. Analysts note that this decline is worse than that of September 2001, following the terrorist attacks in the US, when exports dropped 30.7 per cent. Across the region, Asian exports have been on the decline as the global economic downturn depressed demand for goods. Other badly hit countries include Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. - CNA/yb

25 comments:

Anonymous said...

They have SAF generals peppered all over the shop...from 4-5 full cabinet ministers...to generals running Termasek portfolio...to generals who became PS only to have the time to publish his high end cooking course....

i wonder whether this has had an effect on the "strength" of our country and our economy....

its about time we employ meritious specialists....not obedient soldiers....

Anonymous said...

Lee Kuan Yew once said, he would sit-up from his COFFIN when he knew what the future political leaders are doing to the national reserves.

Since he and his family had lost all of the national reserves, he can now rest in peace in his cardbox coffin, without worries of having to sit-up to check on the national reserves. Maybe he should bring some of his family with him.

No wonder we had the eclipse of the Sun on 1st day of Lunar New Year.

Anonymous said...

I don't think it is that bad. There are still lots of people with loads of cash. Wanted to get a unit at Alexis@Alexander on Sunday. Before i can turn into the showroom, there was a sign which says "100% Sold"

Anonymous said...

there are still making money out of fools.

when the world they have created for you collapses on you, just BEG for crumbs.

it's your new identity...beggar soh.

Anonymous said...

Anon610,

Wat u expect? If you looked at the whole system, it is a closed loop. Depends on which sides of the fence you are sitting on. Some will make while others will lose. Get out of the system if you cannot take the heat! There is no place for losers.

Anonymous said...

Spread your eggs to other places like HK, China, India, if you have many, Its either you win or lose.

Sadly, with the blessings of KY and Ho Ching, we LOST.

Anonymous said...

PAP: who cares how the peasants suffer? Recession or not, we're NOT accountable to you peasants! Money come so easy to us, our bank balance and waistlines get so fat we cannot even look down our ivory towers let alone understand why you people are so poor!

We're not affected as long as Singaporeans continue voting for us. And history have proven they will vote for us as long as we throw them some crumbs once every 5 years! Don't blame us, blame yourself for voting us fat cats into power!

Anonymous said...

winners or losers, it is all relative. but when you need to beg for crumbs, you are a loser relative to the one you seek help from.and the one that represents you is a relative loser to the one he/she answers to in the party. and the one sitting at the top of the party will too/soon be a loser when death comes and haul him into hell! lol.

Anonymous said...

To 6.06pm

Have you not realised by now that Singaporeans are like kia su lemmings...at least 66.6% of them and they are also kia si to boot.

Onlooker said...

They don't call it the George Bush Recession / >Depression( if it get that far)< for nothing you know?
As for protectionism, Our drop in export for china 52% says it all:- the country that called for other nation not to be protectionist is the most protectionist.Ironic isn't it?
So why are we still taking in their economic refugee really puzzling.
Unless it is to create an imported majority.

Anonymous said...

But how come the MRT still crowded? The condo launch still crowded? The restaurants still crowded? The shopping malls still crowded? The roads and highways still got traffic jams?

Maybe 66% are not affected. No worry PAP, even though bad news on economy, Temasek and GIC.

Anonymous said...

"At some point, the govt will have to have to implement off-budget measures because the fallout will simply be terrible."

And by then millions (if not billions) would have been wasted on the JCS.

Anonymous said...

"But how come the MRT still crowded? The condo launch still crowded? The restaurants still crowded? The shopping malls still crowded? The roads and highways still got traffic jams?"

That is because they are so foolishly fooled by our controlled papers...their naive blind faith with the gov, thinking that times are still good...and we will be having V-shape recovery....

BTW, the 50% export drop to China is not because of China's protectionism...but because China is itself only a middle-manufacturer...gettigs intermediate parts from SG n other places...assemble n ship to US consumers....so the real culprit is US consumption implosion...Pls get ur facts correct b4 talk cock.

Anonymous said...

The Job Credit Scheme is just a piece of shit clanged out by a bunch of wet behind the ears, post adolescent financial wizard wannabes.It is just throwing good money after bad and WTF, it is being given to people who don't need it. If taxpayers have to foot the bill, it is better to give it to the ah peks than the fat jerks who run supermarkets.

At least the ah peks can have a jolly good time in Geylang to cheer themselves up courtesy of shorty's ineptness in controlling the sea of PRC whores.

Anonymous said...

can beg so just beg and live like beggars.

problem solved!

AlphavilleSG said...

When the export drop is so abrupt so drastic, how to weight the cost cutting? JCS will not help retain staff when business owner, optimisticaly, can't expect a quick recovery. Reducing head count is the quickest way out.

Not only is measure too little to save jobs (what else to do when there's nothing left on CPF contributions to cut?), it caps the salary of those who can find employment. It depresses wage.

The right thing to have done would have been to cut GST, while needlessly throwing away of money on JCS, cold hard cash should be placed in citizen's hand, such vouchers could cover bills, stimulate consumption, bolster the domestic economy, at least let Singaporean better weather the recession. Not true?

Anonymous said...

"The right thing to have done would have been to cut GST, while needlessly throwing away of money on JCS, cold hard cash should be placed in citizen's hand, such vouchers could cover bills, stimulate consumption, bolster the domestic economy, at least let Singaporean better weather the recession. Not true?"

pap : "holy shit! this stuff blows my mind! better quickly implement it to help the people."

come on lah, in sg its u die ur business. the elites don't care.

u are right, whats wrong with just helping the people? why everything must have a return on investment?

AlphavilleSG said...

Mind I add, the other great plan by the PAP is to bloat the civil service, while Le Cordon Tan's extravagance shows the kind of quality judgement accorded by high pay. Common sense or sensibility? Clearly lacking in both and VERY expensive.

Although some areas justifiably can benefit from a dearth of attractiveness to employees, it begs the question, how is this a productive exercise in judicious use of taxpayers money, expanding civvies in SAF? Isn't it already the biggest black hole in our budget?

Forget the $100bn Ho Ching spent, how would you like to distribute the $20Bn Tharman claims to dole up?

Anonymous said...

Mr Lee, where is the golden period????

Mr Lee, what happened to the billions lost at Temasek and GIC???

Anonymous said...

I think some people are still foolishly buying into the recovery in the second half of 2009 or early 2010, or our fundamentals are still strong arguments.

This recession is unlike any other and if consumption does not pick up in US, and it doesn't look it will soon, with all those job losses, the wake up call to those still sleep-walking will come soon.

The world may never ever go back to the kind of boom of the last couple of years again, including Singapore.

Lost Citizen

SL said...

"Wat u expect? If you looked at the whole system, it is a closed loop."

I call it inbreeding.

Anonymous said...

PAP screw you not enough, somemore increase by increase $20,000 to $30,000. So tell you guys before, you give those clowns to do one thing, they will exploit it further. Now, this money is definitely due to the loss of investment, and now you pleasant have to pay for it !

"From 1 May 2009, CPF members must first set aside $30,000 in their Special Account (SA) before they can invest their SA monies under CPFIS."

http://mycpf.cpf.gov.sg/CPF/Templates/SubPage_Template.aspx?NRMODE=Published&NRORIGINALURL=%2fMembers%2fGen-Info%2fCPFChanges%2fCPFChanges_2009%2ehtm&NRNODEGUID=%7b25C0FD1C-930F-4685-96D9-E12858D3C6C8%7d&NRCACHEHINT=Guest#CPFIS

Anonymous said...

makes no difference to me whether it is 20K or 30K. I don't need the money anyway. Is it so difficult to have 30K in SA?

Onlooker said...

Erm Anonymous 10:15.
Yeah right I like to talk cock whatever.

优先采购国内生产

I know people who are physically there in China and knows what is really happening in the China Economy.
And this is not only happening in their auto industry, This protectionism extends to all industries esp in the provincial level.
The Chinese Garment want to protect their 8% growth with internal consumption. Don't you know anything?
China's forums is also abuzz with protectionism message.
IE They don't say "Buy China" but they say buy Beijing,buy Anhui,etc etc.
政府鼓励优先采购本省产品,这是不是属于地方保护主义<< self denial, tsk, tsk.

It's protectionism in the provincial level so it's fair for them to say it's not national protectionism LOL.
It's sama sama in the end.

Xinhua is China equivalent of CNA except it is slightly more credible.The other one being People daily -> ST.
More credible because they report on Garment departmental corruption truthfully.Too high level one, they still cover up.

FYI:- China medias are running propaganda programs(tv, press, etc ,etc) on Migrant workers now to get them to return to their village and wait for the upturn.

Even their garment do not want the Migrant workers to be in their Cities and step up regulation liao.

And they still dai dai come here paying huge deposit to their fellow countrymen who literally sold them here as coolie.

Anonymous said...

If you think the economic situation is bad, you haven't seen anything yet. All the bad news so far is the result of the problems in the west, i.e. bank busts, consumer loss of confidence, manufacturing shutdowns. Singapore's own problems will bloom second half of this year, when all those who bought property have to cough up cash when TOP comes about. With prices of property diminished, the banks will be asking for more cash upfront. That's when the shit really hits the fan.