Tuesday, March 03, 2009

Why I think an election is imminent....

There are a few things the govt did recently updating the registry of voters [link]and publishing the boundaries of polling districts[link] that makes an early election this year possible. If you think hard about it, an election is not just possible it is highly probable:

1. This recession will last until next year according to most economists. Any recovery will be weak and we will hardly be in a Golden Period in 2011 when an election is due.

2. At the rate this economy is plunging, the recession will be very deep and painful by the 3rd quarter. The small window is between now and the middle of the year. If this window is missed, they will have to do it in 2010 when things can get very bad and the populace disillusioned by the neverending crisis - GIC & Temasek losses, jobless, falling property & stocks prices. Like it or not our economy depends more on what Uncle Sam can do than what our own govt can do.

3. There is growing resentment and restlessness among a growing segment of the population. The growing influence of the new media and lost of control over information.

I believe an election will be held before the middle of this year. It is likely to be a snap election to catch the opposition off guard and not give them sufficient time to bond with the masses. If the opposition wants to gain any ground, they have to start doing work now.

24 comments:

Anonymous said...

Will there be any different to the Result whether the poll is done within a few months or a few years ?

Onlooker said...

Theoretically,They will lose less seat if they hold the election soon but Given they are always theoretically correct about their "Long" term investment.
Do they really want to risk a Gamble now?
I know quite a few "NEW" citizens who are regretting their decision to become Singaporeans and these are the serious type because they have either experienced true democracy in their home country or not.
And there are some who know the devastation/ negligence /abuse of power that can be caused by one party rule.
BTW that is also why there are so many proPAPganda news on how bad the situation in these "NEW" citizens home countries (China (Beijing "protest"), India(Mumbai "Terror"), Burmese (Rohingya refugees) on CNA ,Straits time :- the works(MSM).
Actually if a PR went back to China there is better opportunity (esp for the educated PHd. ones) because they still have good growth there likewise for India and Philippine.
But the thing is not many of them realized that until they are too committed here.As they (unless they are Malaysian) foolishly demand more citizens rights that they were denied in their home country b4.
The smarter ones are already making plans to either find another host via traveling + interview trips to S.Korea and China and South Asian countries or return home.
But I don't blame them because they are looking out for themselves, just like when they ignore the plight of their Migrants workers and only do something about these "Situation" when it is profitable or they were back by their own garment.

nofearSingapore said...

Hi Lucky,
If I were the PAP ( and as machievallian as them ie win at all cost) and not bleeding heart liberal that I am ( haha), what would I do?

I would use the impending threat of total economic collapse as the “bogeyman”. In the past, many different bogeymen were used- communist/liberal Marxists/Chinese language extremists etc.

Their USP ( Unique Selling Proposition) would be-

1. the PAP is the known. The opposition is the unknown ( let’s not talk about unknown unknowns).
2. The peril ahead means that this is not the time for “trying something new”
3. “It’s you and me against the world” ala Helen Reddy ( or was it Rita Coolidge?)
4. The opposition is fly by night etc etc ad nauseum

Other reasons- A certain elderly man is still lucid. He wants to make sure his son is fully entrenched so that his own legacy is entrenched.

The new media is still inexperienced. If the online media goes “viral” and has escaped the grasp of the PAP, they may not be able to contain it.

Yes, Lucky I think it will be 6 months or 9 months from now max.

Anonymous said...

i will respect pap if they hold election now.
if they get higher or even the same percentage, i will shut my mouth forever because it shows singaporeans are unsaveable, get fxxxx left,right,center since last election & still ask for more.

Anonymous said...

Election is imminent...till a few more changes have been finalised. Lets see the check list
1. Election Register (Done)
2. Redraw boundaries based on pass election results (Done)
3. Control of new media (in progress)
3.Bigger GRCs
4.Higher Deposit
5.Certificate of Entry for Election(COEE)

Anonymous said...

To add further:
Election is imminent...till a few more changes have been finalised. Lets see the check list
1. Election Register (Done)
2. Redraw boundaries based on pass election results (Done)
3. Control of new media (in progress)
3.Bigger GRCs
4.Higher Deposit
5.Certificate of Entry for Election(COEE)
6. Off budget announcement with plenty of goodies ($$$billions)

Anonymous said...

I tend to agree that an election is near. Right now there is no certainty that the economy will improve next year.

Holding elections now may not be a good idea, but perhaps they want to make the most of a bad situation rather than wait until next year when the economic situation may get worse.

After all, they probably think that Singaporeans are forever 'kiasu' and will vote for them in bad times for continuity and less uncertainty. Will this work this time around? It will still probably work, given the mentality of most Singaporeans.

And I also agree that the opposition parties should get ready fast, despite the MSM and the ruling party's denial of an election brewing.

Let's also not forget Low Thia Khiang's wish to have elections held every year so that Singaporeans will get pre-election handouts. Of course, if they do give handouts near election time, it will be just due to the economic situation and is just a coincidence.

Lost Citizen

Anonymous said...

The torching of MP Seng in the PAP heartlands probably sealed the decision.

However, it looks like the opposition is already fighting each other. Nice.

Anyway, its natural that weak are going to vote themselves into extinction.

Looking on the bright side, your blog will be highly entertaining.

NoName

Anonymous said...

The ruling party already lose credibility ages ago. If not my residence was graft under their dominant Marine Parade GRC where no opposition will dare to challenge, it unlikely they are going to get a walkover win.

All this voting is sham as it doesn't reflect the popularity or the support of the ruling government/party as only minority of those people get to vote.

The result from the votes doesn't reflect the actual ground zero as lot of people don't get to vote from walkover. It is not surprise our esteem PAP win both hands and legs up this coming election.

Anonymous said...

All MPs must be elected even if there are no opposition standing there. In such cases, the sole party standing for election must secure at least fifty percent of the votes, failing which a fresh election is called for that constituency. In that case, we can truly say that all MPs in Singapore are elected. Walkovers should be a thing of of the past.

Anonymous said...

Agree that it will be soon. The PAP garment will take the "opportunity" to settle some o/s issues with Malaysia re the POA signed by LKY and Daim, ostensibly before Najib takes over so that he will not be blamed for conceding too much to Citipoor. But Najib will probably use this "negotiation" to "deflak" attention from his Mongolian albatross, The likely outcome will be more Citipoor bashing. This will be just the right environment to hold a GE as the sour mood on the ground will be doused and replaced by ( they hope ) a rallying patriotism and closing of ranks. My suggestion to the opposition is stop sniping at one another and to go for two or three GRCs in those wards anchored by weak and unpopular ministars. If they succeed they can add 8 to 14 new MPs. This number should provide a better check and balance in Parliament.

Anonymous said...

LKY may screw up on investments, policy or whatever, but there is one thing he will not worry about -the opposition and the electorate.

Because he is the grandmaster in this aspect. He even said that there is very little that he does not know about Singapore and its politics. In other words, don't teach him how to suck eggs in this area.

That's why even at 85 years old, he still need to be mentor.

So I can tell you that when he died it will be a momentous event and even a turning point (for better or for worse I don't know)for Singapore.

Anonymous said...

LKY may screw up on investments, policy or whatever, but there is one thing he will not worry about -the opposition and the electorate.

Because he is the grandmaster in this aspect. He even said that there is very little that he does not know about Singapore and its politics. In other words, don't teach him how to suck eggs in this area.

That's why even at 85 years old, he still need to be mentor.

So I can tell you that when he died it will be a momentous event and even a turning point (for better or for worse I don't know)for Singapore.

Anonymous said...

@NoName

For entertainment value lim swee say's speeches are the best, his take on the cpf statement was classic, so was the one about the erp - peek peek, the one on the truck headlights was good too but nothing beat the latest when he can't count the number of mps in parliament on feb 5. So was his reply of the same stating that his figure for the feb 3 & 4 were accurate - when no one want to know about the attendance on these two dates but feb 5.

This guy is simply hilarious can't understand simple question and can't count yet have the cheek to accept million dollar salary.

Anonymous said...

@7.57

I agree completely.

If PAP holds an election this year. GOOD LUCK. I think we are going to see changes.

Anonymous said...

That's why it's time for those in the new media to start making party political video". That's one, targeted at the Chinese speaking silent(?) majority and here's another one. The the English-speakings, though not in the majority, need to be addressed too.

Anonymous said...

Lim Swee Say is a nobody.

Check out the increase in community hospital charges.

No worries, the weak will vote themselves to extinction.

Maybe the next election after this. Then we may see change.

NoName

Anonymous said...

PAP always abused the elections

I am staying at a place I can throw a stone at the Marine Parade Library when GCT visits and maybe if lucky could hit him or his bodyguards, yet I am not in the Marine Parade GRC.

They are so shitty esp LKY that when they talk, they are no better than puking.

Anonymous said...

Relationship between LKY AND SR Nathan

http://en.fooooo.com/watch.php?id=CWnD8MUNFvE

yamizi said...

In a true democratic (in their words, western democracy) society, there should always be checks and balances within the Parliament not just within the Party.

I hope that those who are not walk-over would exercise their rights as citizens to cast the right votes so that more alternative voices are heard in the Parliament.

Anonymous said...

It is obvious that the wiseman who coined the Golden Period of Asia has turned extra persismitic,he is very busy charting a new way out.

It is obvious to me that he has to give up his traditional god father-Uncle Sam,and his extreme optimistism for China and India has landed,it is not what he had calculated before.

My prediction is that he would now focus on Asean,the 500 millions people around us,but it is difficult and definitelty unsuited to PAP which is so used to find short cut.

Anonymous said...

They are just sending a Ping to see the response. Like an echo sounder to detect the enemy movement.

Anonymous said...

If the opposition field a monkey in my ward, I will vote for the monkey. Afterall, how many of us have been screwed by monkeys before?

Anonymous said...

If the opposition field a monkey in my ward, I will vote for the monkey. Afterall, how many of us have been screwed by monkeys before?