Monday, August 31, 2009

The Japanese vote for change and uncertainty....

Many voters said that although the Democrats are largely untested in power and doubts remain about whether they will be able to deliver on their promises, the country needs a change. "We don't know if the Democrats can really make a difference, but we want to give them a chance," Junko Shinoda, 59, a government employee, said after voting at a crowded polling center in downtown Tokyo. - AP Report Japanese election upends long-ruling party

The Japanese people culturally do not like change so it is very dramatic to see them vote out the LDP after 54 years of continuous rule. The electorate did send a strong signal in the 2003 elections when there was a significant swing to the opposition Democratic Party. However, bogged down by entrenched vested interests the efforts to bring about change foundered. It was more about the LDP getting thrown out than a viable vision of change from the Democratic Party. The Japanese people are well educated and they are not so easily swayed by the Democrats which embraced a more populist platform, promising handouts for families with children and farmers, a higher minimum wage, and to rebuild the economy. The Japanese govt has an enormous public debt to tackle spending more money and giving more handouts is a promise that is hard to keep. The Japanese have simply lost patience with the LDP and they know that change will be limited given LDP is contrained by its pro-business and conservative ideology.

Japan's main problems are its ageing population and export-oriented economy highly dependent on external demand. Even though the Democratic Party is going for change and very determined to solve these problems, it will not adopted short term, short sighted and easy solutions like opening the floodgates to foreigners just to fix the demographics. They know that importing people in a large scale will cause overcrowding, cost of living to rise and wages to be depressed. The income gap in Japan is already widening and going for such short sighted solutions will hurt a large segment of the population. The Democratic Party has proposed to ease the burden of families having children by promising to US$275 a month per child through junior high to boost the fertility rate. There is only one way to fix the Japanese economy - boost domestic economy[Link]. The export oriented model is dependent on foreign demand which is slumping and faces intense competition from developing countries. Due to the competition, Japanese exporters have been relocating their factories to cheaper countries causing unemployment to soar to 5.7%. They need to deregulate and reform policies that hinder competition to encourage growth in domestic industries something the LDP couldn't do due to entrenched interests.

It is not clear if the new govt in Japan will succeed or fail. What is clear is they will give alternative ideas a try and that is good enough for the Japanese people who are fed up with the LDP's inability to implement meaningful changes. Some credit has to be given to the LDP for not resorting to undemocratic and unfair tactics to remain in power to preserve the status quo - they did not tinker with the electoral system, change the constitution, repress their opponents, control the media and remove the freedom of ordinary citizens to assemble and speak.


Chee Wai Lee said...

And if the DPJ screws up this chance granted to them, the electorate can always choose to return to the LDP if the latter manage to reform and repackage themselves. No need to send in the Self-Defense forces after 2-3 years of this not-so-freak election.

yamizi said...

Is this...a sign...?

Anonymous said...

But the reality is, even if PAP lost in the ballot box, will there be a change in Government?

I think not, it will be more like the Burma of 1990. The army will come in!

Anonymous said...

Or, we can go back to 1963, operation Cold Store. Locked up all the elected representatives.

LKY said: Please don't assume that you can change the governments. Young people don't understand this.

If you guys are still thinking about removing the PAP thru elections, stop dreaming.

Anonymous said...

Come on guys, the civil service in Singapore works, with or without the PAP. We have to get this in our heads. The PAP only give the go ahead, and I must say, only when it matters. We must change if not we sink.

Bob Dylan's classic "Times are a changin " is buzzing in my head.

Anonymous said...

The reason why we want to vote against the PAP is not because we are against the PAP, but because of lack of checks and balances, lack of care for the poor and disadvantaged, etc... if the government uses the army to seize back power, it will lose credibility in the eyes of the western world, What do you think are the fallout from such an action?

Anonymous said...

Dear anon 08:02,

When those in power gets voted out do you think they're really concerned about world opinion? They will be thinking about their million dollar salaries.

Psst, I'll let you in on a little secret. It's ok to be totally undemocratic as long as you're an US ally. The world media will grumble a little but largely leave you alone. Tell me how democratic is Saudi Arabia? Do you hear CNN and BBC calling for the overthrow of the royal family? The old man knows how to play the game. You will never win. The only game he can't win is his date with the gream reaper. He will have to meet is maker sooner or later.

Anonymous said...

Good morning yamizi,

This will not happen in S'pore.

TV, Newspaper & Radio are VERY POWERFUL which opp has no access.

I think there is a Chinese drama with setting in 50s-80s in the midst of "nation-building" coming up soon and this is very powerful in its subtle msg

The reach of Internet is still limited and not "intense" enough to undo our many years of "nation building" educations. Ask around & majority will give U 10-year series standard model answer and they will not vote for any other despite the blunders and weaknesses of the ruling party.

It's deeply entrenched into the Singaporeans' brain and Lucky label this as "social engineering" in his earlier posts

derek demos said...

Wow, I can't believe it, is it possible???

Anonymous said...

"All the bad things over the last 54 years finally caught up to them," said Fumio Morita, 45, who runs a bar in Tokyo. "It's good that they are no longer in power."

I certainly hope this will happen to Singapore, our deprived motherland, soon.

Anonymous said...

No one can stop the history wheel rolling. Dynasty or empire or country or any organization rose and fell. Historical event will recur with similarities, or just repeat itself.

But, stop dreaming... Singapore is no Japan. Japan is already a democratic country and Singapore is not. What happen in Japan yesterday will not happen in Singapore in near future simply because of these differences. However, it will happen given time if the ruling party does not act on this wake-up call.

Regarding Army intervention, it is a joke given that SAF is a national service army. Are you sure SAF can act and is royal to the rotten ruler blindly? Also, the Singaporean culture and mentality do not warrant such army intervention.

Stop dreaming... make your money and enjoy your life. If you have money and you do not like to live here, just ****off and forget it.

TechSlice said...

It seems it's a good year for democrats world wide.


This blog is very real. I read it everyday.

To be frank, I love Singapore and hate to see it going down and slowly "belongs" to those CHINKIES. Lots of CHINKIES who act and behaves as though they own here.

Heng heng I am still 1 way above them by blasting my car whenever i saw them crossing the roads at NTU. Though a bit stupid but I just "hate" to see so many of them in our Us.

Give a chance for Singaporeans to live and prosper here.

ringisei said...

Hi Lucky,

WRT your point about the Japanese not importing loads of foreigners, it's actually more similar to the situation in the US where they close one eye to a lot of illegal immigration (from social/student visa over-stayers to those smuggled in by the crime syndicates).

If you spend enough time in any of the large cities, you'll realize that many of the wait staff, counter staff and karaoke girls etc are from mainland China. They blend in more easily not just because of skin colour but because, since most Japanese cannot speak Chinese, they have to level up their Japanese pretty quickly.

So my point is that the Japanese government does kind of allow the import of many foreigners but not in segments that compete directly only with the working class (but not with the more vocal middle class) and they don't admit it openly.

Anonymous said...

To anon 09:55,

is name-calling and taking pleasure at honking people the best you can do? stop your cowardly, childish behaviour. I am ashame of Singaporeans like you.

Anonymous said...

Just vote for the opposition and do not read the MSM or watch the news over TV.

Anonymous said...

As has long been said, in Japan "... it is they (bureaucrats), not politicians, who have been running the country." LINK

It is not just about overthrowing LDP but how to tackle this very entrenched bureaucratic power structure after that.

In Singapore even if the opposition wins, a similar situation exists - the extensive GLC network that are filled with PAP people, and community organizations like PA, CCC, CDAC and may be even NTUC that PAP had claimed are symbiotically linked ot PAP.

Not that it is impossible to revamp the system; just that challengers must understand what they are up against. What is going on inside, how they operate and work hand in hard with each other to benefit PAP and its supporters all the time - and I wish to add at the expense of ordinary Singaporeans?

Anonymous said...

I don't think Mee Pok King is being childish. He just can't find a way of vetting his frustration about how he feels about his motherland overrun by useless FT here to exploit Sg. Give you an example - I give tuition and some of my students are dropouts from their own system back in their homeland. Some of them are really useless. I have a new one from Malaysia, now Singaporean. He fails maths even though he has tuition every year but is smug and arrogant. Surfs jobsdb to find highest paid CEO jobs and dreams of making easy money. So pathetic that you have to give him money to get him to buy his mum a flower for mother's day. Plays computer games late into the night, not awake until 5pm everyday, no homework. When you ask him if he will defend singapore, he asks me back "Why don't you do it?"

Anonymous said...

I see some similarity between LDP and PAP government:

-- Long-term reign resulting in complecency. Government ignores social problem like structural unemployment, income gap, healthcare cost due to aging population;

-- Younger generation disillusioned with the future;

-- Intertwined-interests between government, business and bureacrats. Big businesses like banks, retail giants, manufacturing given preferential treatment. Retired officials given second career in private sectors, or government-affiliate organs.

Like LDP, PAP deserves to lose power as it is no more a party for the people.

Lim Leng Hiong said...

["We don't know if the Democrats can really make a difference, but we want to give them a chance," Junko Shinoda, 59, a government employee, said after voting at a crowded polling center in downtown Tokyo.] - AP

Here are some other responses from the Japanese people:

[Takao Masuda used to vote for the LDP, he says from his pottery shop, but he doesn't anymore "because business has been down for the last 10 years."

When asked why their vote is for the opposition party, parents of two young children say simply, "For our kids' future."] - ABC

["It's going to be challenging for the DPJ to allocate money properly, but I think we should give them a shot," said 38-year-old restaurant owner Yasuhiro Kumazawa. "If it doesn't work out, we can re-elect the LDP again in four years."] - Reuters

["We need a change in government. I think the Democrats will really tackle the pension problem," said 60-year-old Sachiko Nogi in Tokyo. "If it's not fixed, there's no tomorrow."] - Reuters

["The election is more about emotions than policies," said Takashi Mikuriya, a political science professor at Tokyo University. "Most voters are making the decision not about policies but about whether they are fed up with the ruling party."] - The Guardian

["I cast my vote to see a change of power in this country, rather than paying attention to details of each party's campaign manifesto," Norihito Inoue, a house wife told Kyodo news agency.] - The Australian

["All the bad things over the last 54 years finally caught up to them," said Fumio Morita, 45, who runs a bar in Tokyo. "It's good that they are no longer in power."] - AP

I find it interesting that voters in Japan have the same sort of pragmatic concerns that most Singaporeans have - about their jobs, their children's future and their retirement.

But the most chilling aspect of these responses is that they suggest the Japanese people are not strongly against the LDP, nor are they strongly attracted to the DPJ.

It was the slow, simmering frustration with the government over a long period of time that provided the fuel for change. No single event can be attributed as the main cause.

Despite the constant hammering by the ruling party about the riskiness and inexperience of the DPJ, the Japanese people were just too tired of the same old thing to listen.

Whether the people were understating their resentment, or they were actually quite ho-hum about it, the fact remains that few during the Koizumi-era could have predicted that the DPJ would emerge as the dominant party in less than three years, and by tripling its number of seats in just one election.

Not everything is hunky dory simply because the people look "disinterested" or "apathetic".

Do not ignore reality. said...

I am also shocked at the landslide victory.

Anonymous said...

"The Democratic Party of Japan (民主党, Minshutō?) is a political party in Japan founded in 1998 by the merger of several opposition parties." - Wikipedia

The important term here is "merger of several opposition parties". As is always the case with opposition parties in every country that hope to make a dent on ruling parties the key is always "alliance" or "merger" of opposition parties.

We are looking for a solution to PAP dominance. Perhaps it has always been looking at us in the face. Just that the opposition parties here for some reasons - and there is always no lack of such even if petty - are not interested in it.

Anonymous said...

I watched the Japanese TV covering th elections. Some interesting observations I have:

--Every defeated LDP politicians blamed themselevs for not doing enough. They apologised to supporters, promised to work harder to win back the trust. No bad-mouthing their opponents, threat to cut services or to bring in the army.

--Some defeated veteran LDP said there saw no signs of vote swing before the election. They were caught by surprise.

So PAP better take note, and learn something, like gracefulness in defeat.

Anonymous said...

Graciousness and being charitable
are never the hallmarks of the PAP.
Despite having won, they would go all out on their political opponents after every elections with ISA detentions previously and
defamation suits currently even though their cases may not be clear cut.
With sweeping political changes across the world, the good news is
time is not on their side

Anonymous said...

Japanese can do it. So can Singaporean. Oops, sorry i am wrong here. I am talking about the apathetic, ball-less, kiasi, kiasu, brain dead Singaporean.

If you want change, you have to effect the change yourself. Can't sit back and wait for others to do it for you. Opposition can't do it on their own.

Please wake up for your own sake.

Anonymous said...

Please be prepared to see PAP slaughter the chicken to scare the monkeys in the coming months. Something is bound to happen just to remind everyone that Singapore is different and don't go around having some bright idea of voting for the opposition. I don't know who the sorry "chicken" will be but some unfortunate guy out there will be made example of as usual. Singapore is no Japan. There is no DPJ in Singapore. Neither is it the US and there are no Obamas. Any Obama wannabe will soon find himself in court sued for defamation and bankrupted.

Richie said...

I do believe change will come to Singapore. The winds of change are happening. U.S., Malaysia, Japan, Why not Singapore?

Anonymous said...

The voters said things that are eerily similar to us like:

Rich poor wide gap
Policy without consulting people
drought of subsidies to offset policies implement
jobless rate high
education(ok here), child care
too pro business policy

Now is really a good time for a 'refreshing' change.

My wish is :

There be splinter group from the ruling party that is GOOD and experienced enough to run the 'show'. Many older ministers sure fit in the bill as some maybe...not really satisfied with the existing party.

Hope no army is going to CRUSH us when that happens.HAHA just joking, now that they have increased their pay and plenty promotions.

Anonymous said...

If most of us can't even get to vote during elections, how can we possibly effect the change in parties? The same party will get the most votes in the end.

Anonymous said...

The very sad thing is that here there are not enough opposition candidates in the election.

Sometimes the same old faces recycled don't know how many times every election.

Here opposition means everything to lose and nothing to gain due to kiasoo and kiasi voters and people.

But can't blame really because not many true Singaporeans still around, many are PRs, foreigners or PRs just turn citizens who of course cannot take part or also don't care about politics. They are already so grateful to PAP!

Anonymous said...

All well and good but the Japanese themselves don't seem to think it'll make a big difference - they liken one party to "curry rice" and the other party to "curry with rice"

Anonymous said...

Success is not guaranteed by a change of government but failure is definitely guaranteed by sticking to the same old incompetent government.

I am not even talking about japan.

Anonymous said...

Not at possible in Singapore for two reasons:
GRC and Singapore votes are scared and timid, compliant and apathy.
Dont dream.

Anonymous said...

The result of the coming election can go the way of the JAPANESE as we recently saw or the way of the Burmese back in 1990.

watch this documentary.

Anonymous said...

I have done a informal poll and almost 80% of my friends will vote for the opposition unless things improve fast. But about 56% said they never had a chance to vote. So in reality, if it was all single seats the ruling party would have been or will be shown the door and they know this. The opposition needs to adopt a strategy to overcome the odds. They have to change the weakness to strength. Winning a few GRC might give you the majority. Let them have the single seats and take on the key leaders. Just imagine if the opposition hade won AMK. We would have has a new PM

Anonymous said...

Yes, the opposition should target GRCs where the most hated leaders are and contantly remind people how much these guys make for the little that they do.

Anonymous said...

The Ghurkas are paid by your generous tax, so as to slaughter you and your family when necessary. Young people do not understand this.

SAF is made up of ordinary Singaporeans like you and me. If there are >50% in the general population that are against PAP, there will be also >50% in the army. Unless the paper generals who are pro-pap due to their high salaries, can suppress Singaporeans by themselves without the rank and file NSmen and NSF?

Thus, LKY was referring to the Ghurka Contingent at Mount Vernon, when he said "army". FYI, these Ghurkas are issued with machine guns, grenades etc. Why do we need them in Sg despite having a hugh conscript army? Isn't it obvious that they are here to kill Singaporeans for the Lees, if and when Singaporeans turn against the Lees?

Anonymous said...

Ghurkas can kill Singaporeans in Singapore. But they and their families will be going home in cardboard boxes.

Anonymous said...

I wonder who the Gurkhas take their orders from? The government of the day or can it be used by certain individual as his own private army?

Lim Leng Hiong said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Lim Leng Hiong said...

There are some commenters who say that Singapore is not Japan and nothing will change in Singapore.

1. Firstly, it is indisputably true that Singapore is not Japan. Of course there are numerous differences. To find out if we can even learn anything from the Japanese situation, Richie has the clue - start by doing a comparative analysis using data from many countries, eg. US, Malaysia, Japan.

But to constantly harp on the differences between Singapore and Japan is to miss the biggest significance of the Japanese election results - that it is even POSSIBLE for a new opposition party to displace an established ruling party.

It may be a low probability event in any country, but it is not a hypothetical scenario anymore - in Japan the chance of this happening has just become 100%.

It has become reality.

When people realise that some goals have transformed from "practically impossible" to "very very difficult", the psychological barrier is removed. It becomes possible to envision a future where such a large change has occurred.

This is a crucial first step.

2. Next, to say that nothing will change in Singapore is incorrect.

Singapore has changed. It is still changing and it will continue to change in the future. This is true of the government as well.

Even if the opposition parties cannot gain significantly more seats, the government will still have to adapt to change. At least some of this adaptation will be due to the policies that the government itself has set in the past.

Again the Japanese situation tells us that it is POSSIBLE that a major change can occur without strong affection for the opposition parties, and possibly without strong resentment of the ruling party as well.

The future is not set. It remains unpredictable. A government can make small changes in policy now that will reduce the frustration of the people and thus reduce the chances of a much larger change later.

Or it can insist on its own way because it has misinterpreted the frustration of the people as "apathy" or "disinterest".

Not all cultures display their unhappiness outwardly and vocally; in that respect Singapore not too different from Japan.

In such settings, evaporation of ground support can occur swiftly with little or no warning.

Qing said...

Hi Leng Hiong

I like your post for providing a wider perspective.

Well, actually I also think opposition politics is not the only way to keep check and balance alive.

If PAP is really smart, it should know that keeping in touch with and being responsive to general public sentiments is vital. It is the humanity of the people speaking up.

How it is going to do that is up to PAP. It is the gov and paid to think of solutions.

Be a dictator if you must but ensure that people's interests are looked after. You can't say that old folks collecting dishes and trash for a living is okay for a gov that claims first world status. You can't continue to say that state welfare for such a small minority of needy is wrong.

Then what is the gov for?

Qing said...

Hi Leng Hiong

I like your post for providing a wider perspective.

Well, actually I also think opposition politics, especially the types in Singapore, is not the only way to keep check and balance alive.

If PAP is really smart, it should know that keeping in touch with and being responsive to general public sentiments is vital. Public sentiments are the humanity of the people speaking up.

But how is PAP going to achieve this responsiveness which it has lost? Well that's up to PAP. It is the gov and paid to think of such solutions.

Be a dictator if you cannot change your spots but it is fundamental to any gov to ensure that people's interests are always looked after.

You can't say that old folks collecting dishes and trash for a living is okay for a gov that claims first world status. You can't continue to say that state welfare for such a small minority of needy is wrong - even while you think it is nothing to donate $60 billion to failed Western banks.

You can't say that it good to have a free-for-all with unlimited FT import and Singaporeans.

Then what's the advantage, where are the privileges and rights of being a citizen?

Then what is the gov for?

Why do we need the PAP gov for if not to look after the country, and that means first and foremost Singaporeans and not just GDP growth which does not necessarily benefit the people.

Back to basics, PAP!

Anonymous said...

it takes blood to overthrow a dictatorship.

Lim Leng Hiong said...

To Qing:

Thanks for your kind words. As you have observed correctly, chasing GDP growth does not necessarily benefit the people. In fact, overemphasis on this single metric might lead to a feedback loop of escalating expectations from both the people and the government.

I think that the government is facing a real problem. I say this, because in the past, critics of the government were mainly idealists who want to have more freedom, rights, fairness etc. But if you notice carefully, in recent years the dissenting voices are actually as pragmatic as the government itself.

These new critics are only tangentially interested in things like free speech or freedom of assembly.

What they want are basic things that any citizen of any country wants - jobs, affordable homes, a future for their children and a quiet retirement.

They had to forgo many of the freedoms and rights that citizens of other countries enjoy for "pragmatic" reasons. They were told not to question government policies or investment decisions because the government knows the big picture and is acting for their best benefit.

These things the people have accepted as part and parcel of being Singaporeans.

But now they are told that they have to fight for their jobs, not only with each other but with a large influx of foreign workers who are faster, sharper, cheaper and younger. They are told that this will actually create more jobs for them.

They are told to upgrade their skills all the time, nevermind the actual demand in the job market, nevermind the fact that their target position is still contested by foreign workers. They are told that if they cannot find work it is their fault because they are too choosy, nevermind the fact that the employers never even gave their application a look because of their age or too little/ too much/ not relevant qualifications/ experience etc.

They are told that their children have to fight with foreigners for school positions and scholarships. That they will grow up on a tiny island crammed with 6.5 million people, fighting for space in school, on the bus, on the MRT, in public parks, shopping centres etc.

They are told to keep working and working while their retirement age has to go higher and higher. If they end up collecting cardboard boxes or drink cans until the final days of their lives they are told that they have "the dignity of employment". Or even better, Singaporeans who have worked their entire lives can now spend their last days in JB!

This sounds like a cruel joke, and an increasing number of Singaporeans is not finding it funny any more. They mostly keep quiet because they don't want any trouble, but deep inside the frustration and anxiety grows. The government thinks that they are "apathetic" and "disinterested", but in reality they are just giving the government the benefit of the doubt, for now.

Anonymous said...

Hi Lucky

LDP and DPJ are like PAP GCT faction Vs PAP LHL faction and the japanese know it.

Hopefully Singaporeans will see that even voting in a equally incompetent opposition has it benefits. At least both sides will now try harder and show more respect.

Anonymous said...

the best thing i heard all day.. incompetent oppositions... hahaha

Anonymous said...

u cant be sure that the damn cock opposition will not pay themselves the million dollars salaries once they are in. nothing wrong mah...

Anonymous said...

well if any opposition party pays themselves obscene amt of money and deliver nothing, just vote them out.

Afterall, voting is about choosing the best government of the people. If they can't deliver, out they go.

It's harsh, but hey, isn't it the same for us lesser mortals currently?

Anonymous said...

The first thing any credible opposition party taking over the government must do is to get rid of the million dollar salaries. Reward the ministers fairly but by no means at the current obscene level. That will go a long way to give them legitimacy to work for the people. The true meaning of public service.

Anonymous said...

The Singaporean have to fight, to survive in this grim situation which the contemporary government has created. The ever growing FT, PR has threatened the very fabric of our basic livelihood.

The PAP and Lee cronies have taken the threat too personally. It is not Singaporean vs THEM. It is about humanity.

Singaporeans are just fighting for their own survival.

PAP has not done their job well, infact they have not contributed much to the well being of the normal Singporeans. PAP is here to enrich themselves, such selfish government.

Anonymous said...

Actually the DPJ leaders were formerly from the LDP. In a sense DPJ is a breakaway group of the LDP.

Here do we foresee any breakaway group from PAP?

Unlikely, because really nothing to gain and everything to lose by doing so. Isn't it obvious?

Hence what happened in Japan will never happen here.

PAP rewards its members well for a reason. They understand human or rather Singaporean mentality.

Anonymous said...

There are many that are already 'prematurely' retired or still harbour political ambitions. To them money is not a major push factor anymore (MP pay scale). Also many who once hold high positions but now have to let to younger generations.

I think that even from same party, political thoughts can also vary, hence puzzled when people say that 'still the same' etc. Politics are not simple and clear...We just need them to fulfill people's expectations.

onlooker said...

Nothing is permanent.

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