Saturday, August 29, 2009

Why the LDP is likely to lose the elections.

The LDP of Japan which has held power in Japan for 5 decades looks set to face almost certain defeat at the polls this weekend. Found this short paragraph explaining how LDP lost the support of the people and why the Japanese people are no longer grateful to the LDP which helped to transform Japan into an industrial giant after the war:

What went wrong for Japan's LDP?


"Working closely with bureaucrats and the business sector, the LDP-led government delivered high growth, ample jobs and a steep rise in living standards. But cracks emerged when the bubble burst in the early 1990s. There was a general feeling that the LDP was losing touch and that it wasn't delivering for everybody. Jobs were no longer for life, a gap emerged between rich and poor (Singapore has a bigger gap) and demographic change posed a challenge. Women were having fewer babies (Singaporeans are having even fewer children) and the population was ageing - with serious implications for social security.
Reform was needed but the close bureaucratic and business links that had benefited the LDP also served to constrain it (The PAP govt has even wider links to GLCs & businesses than the LDP). Efforts foundered in the face of entrenched vested interests (whose interest has the PAP been serving? Economic stake holders or the citizens who vote
). Part of the problem was that the LDP was slow to get things done, because it was trying to keep a variety of interest groups happy."

The lesson here is very simple. To win and maintain the support of the people, govts have to serve the interest of the ordinary citizens and nothing else. Once a govt becomes entangled and its interest becomes diversified it risks losing support.

21 comments:

Anonymous said...

The PAP knows this and this is why the playing field is not level.

Anonymous said...

Sometimes I wonder whether scenario like this will happen in the not so distant future :

Ruling part lose the majority seats and within itself splintered to some new party. Opposition parties become active and capitalised on disgruntled voters.

Then we have many social problems like CASINOS, loan shark, FT related tensions, poor people in the street etc... In short, the decline.

By then I will take up the books by MM and relish the good old days of Singapore.

Anonymous said...

Singapore is not Japan lah. In Japan where got 50% walkovers in elections?

In Japan where got opposition sued to bankruptcy?

Kojakbt said...

If Japan can change, so can Singapore... pass the message around, bros. Do the right thing in the coming election of Singapore...

Anonymous said...

In sg, things are not so simple.
The garment will win no matters how.
Unless people's thinking and minset change drastically. But this is difficult.

Anonymous said...

The books written by MM are books that sing of his praises, of how he is correct, and how much of a hero he is.

If I wanted to read books authored by MM, I would rather stick to "Harry Potter" and "Arabian Nights"; they are both better quality fiction books.

blisteringbarnacles said...

The Japanese have a free press, and we have a propaganda tool masquerading as a press, that's the difference

Anonymous said...

"the close bureaucratic and business links that had benefited the LDP also served to constrain it (The PAP govt has even wider links to GLCs & businesses than the LDP). "

its sad that majority of those that work in glc and civil service vote for pap year in year out and destroy all hope of a change for a better singapore.

Anonymous said...

Not only does the PAP know this, they have already in place all the changes necessary to ensure their continued survival, eg the changes to boundaries, GRCs, preventing opposition from carrying out activities and improving their opposition constituencies. All this to make the oppostion look bad in the eyes of their voters.

Are we really as democratic as Japan? Far from it.

Anonymous said...

Actually, if enough of us are pissed off, all we need to do is vote against PAP.

And PAP will lose, regardless of how they redraw the boundaries.

So, the fact is, many ppl are still voting for PAP, cuz they are scared, or cuz they think PAP holds the answer or they have vested interests in PAP remaining in power.

Kojakbt said...

PAP votes in elections since 1980:

Year PAP Walkover
Votes Percentage
1980 77.7% 47%
1984 64.8% 37%
1988 63.2% 13%
1991 61.0% 50%
1997 65.0% 59%
2001 75.3% 67%
2006 66.6% 43%

Next election?

Qing said...

What had been happening to China economically and societally over the last 2 and half decades has caused some observers to surmise that perhaps democracy might not be the only way forward.

Afterall, before the advent electoral democracy, empires had been governed for milleniums based on non-democratic systems.

In those days, democracy (people power) only became real when things could no longer be tolerated resulting in long periods of revolts and wars to install a new regime.

Anyway, in our times, despite lacking electoral democratic checks and balances, China's economy and society have been humming along quite phenomenally.

How to explain this? Is there an excellent feedback/response mechanism between society and the government in China that has served as a viable substitute for electoral democracy?

Yes or no, can such dictatorship really be viable in the longer term?

And how about Singapore's form of dictatorship? Will it stand the test of time?

Is the current regime too dependent on a singular personality who brooks not challenges to hold things together rather than on real good and efficient governance?

I would like to hear your thoughts.

Anonymous said...

Talking about when push come to shove, we may end up living under martial law. Don't think this is a real democratic country like Japan or US or Taiwan. Don't be naive.

Anonymous said...

We are only a small island, running a very tight ship and struggling to survive.

We need to do more than anyone else in the world just to be 'alive'. No one owe us a living.

On the other hand, I do feel this garmeh is out of touch with the people. Did a survey myself, asking people from young chaps to uncles. Their attitude from young is 'Bo chap' to 'cannot do anything'

IT IS TIME TO DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT,PEOPLE.

But then again, I see a lot of Singaporeans look very tired and stressed.

Anonymous said...

Minister lim said sg is turning on attacking mode, fr the previously defensive (ie. job saving) mode. Anyone can guess what attacting means? I catch no ball.

Anonymous said...

PAP losing election ?

Kid me right ? What make old fart so confident that PAP will win in next election ? The answer is Old Fart who is willing to do anything including lies, deceit and exploit to retain his leegime. Old fart is adamant that he will be living up to next ten years of 96. that is why election is imminent.

Anonymous said...

In offensive mode like a buzzing bee who work more, harder and protective of the system, willing to die with a single sting.

It is then to be casted aside once its economic value is exhausted.

What they say seem so 'shallow' nowadays. Basically just fine tuning and calibrating the existing system that works.

Onlooker said...

There is always the possibility of PAPaya losing but most of those who supported PAPaya are only loyal to money.

That's why They want to kept these grass root well fed even when they do not merit it.

Some even like to engage people by saying people with different view are repetitive.

What to do? It happened....

Steve Wu said...

Do not ask yourself what you can do for PAP, ask yourself instead what you can do for your country when the time comes. This decision may not be for you alone, but it will certainly be for your children and the ones you love.

PAP is certainly NOT Singapore.

Anonymous said...

Dear Sir,

If the ruling party loses, they will still retired a millionaire and might even migrate to enjoy the fruits which they have kept much for themselves.

The people are the one who will continue to suffer. So, what has each individual of the ruling party got to lose?

Anonymous said...

Lee Kuan Yew proudly declared that if the PAP ever get voted out of power, he will send in the Army to seize back power. Japanese politicians, even LDP ones, are not as shameless as these Peranakan Bananas in Singapore. There lies the difference.

"You are wrong, we are right, we know best, you don't, Singapore is a special case; we're different from everyone else on the planet; and so we should always get to do things the way we please.

Do you disagree? Are you trying to make trouble? We'll either sue you; ban you; fine you; revoke your PR status or your newspaper licence; lock you away on Sentosa Island; zap you with the riot squad; get our police officers to physically encircle you with their arms so as to restrain your movement; or call in the army should you win in a freak election."

— Lee Kuan Yew