Monday, November 09, 2009

MM Lee predicts 3% growth next year...

His latest prediction on the economy found here
In March 2009, he predicted the Singapore economy will contract 10% in 2009[Link]
The other thing I remember him predicting was UBS being a good long term investment. He predicted in 2007 that we were in a golden period. In 2008, he predicted that it would take 3-5 years for the world economy to recover[Link]. Before the recent recession he predicted that Singapore will be able to escape a recession because of growth in China and India:

"This economic downturn will mark the first time that when America sneezes, Asia doesn't catch a cold. Yes, Asia will be affected, but not as severely. Because China and India will not experience a recession, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the Asean countries will avoid it...."
- MM Lee in 25 Feb 2008 explaining why there will be no recession in Asia[Link].

I remember MM Lee once predicted that if the Hong Kongers were to leave en masse because they didn't like the authoritarian Chinese govt after the handover, the Hong Kong economy can keep going with imported foreigners. That one about foreigners he got right but on the wrong island.

Given his track record for predictions, I think I better start preparing for a second dip of this economy next year. I think the stimulus induced growth is too good to be true and when the stimulus runs out, many govts simply cannot keep borrowing to push the economy along.

20 comments:

Anonymous said...

If he predicted 100% correctly I doubt you would be praising him now. You clearly are shit stirrer looking for every piece of shit to stir. If he do something right you diam diam. If he say something wrong, you come with your knife. In office politics this technique is call back stabbing. Let me guess, you are jealous of PAP ruling? You want to get into PAP management but cannot?

I don't see any reasons why you want to stir any shit unless you are jealous. So tell me are yu or are yu not?

Anonymous said...

To 22:32

Why don't you tell us what he has done right?

As if we have not been force-fed enough by the 133th how great a "founding father" of Singapoire he is.

You want to hear something nice? Go and ask the Chua sisters lah!

Anonymous said...

Its his blog, he can shit whatever he wants, you blow meh? lol

Onlooker said...

"Given his track record for predictions, I think I better start preparing for a second dip of this economy next year. I think the stimulus induced growth is too good to be true and when the stimulus runs out, many govts simply cannot keep borrowing to push the economy along."

LOL how true.

A facade is still a facade.
Curing the symptom does not necessarily cure the problem they caused.

Anonymous said...

LOL! Keep it up, Lucky. I always look forward to reading your blog.

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Clear eyed said...

"That one about foreigners he got right but on the wrong island."

This is so funny! So it's still zero marks for him?:)

Anonymous said...

"Remember Mao Zedong screwed his people and escaped by dying. This MM Lee can escape to US or UK with your CPF money laughing."

I bet that MM Lee is now dying to take out the superficial heart apparatus to save his embarrassment. Better dead than never.

Nostradamus said...

Hahaha, clap clap, very droll, Lucky! Ever since he had his prostate castrated the old goat's crystal balls are notorious for turning leaky and opaque at the most embarrassing times.

Now that our hero has crept out of his closet after licking his '10, 20, 30 years long-term investment' wounds and begun to pontificate on the state of the Singapore economy, we can be certain that we're in for a prolonged W-shaped recession.

Would you buy a used financial condom from this lawyer with his track record? Buckle up!

Anonymous said...

I check for your Blog's update everyday. We the people who follow you will know where your true intention lies evident from your effort to keep this Blog updated, takes commitment and conviction. Keep it up.
Heaven and earth will discern, and people can tell (even though we keep mouth shut) if one does good or bad deed.

K

xl said...

Change is happening on an accelerating pace.

In past when things happen slower, things are fairly predictable.

Since is 9th Nov, is 20th anniversary of fall of Berlin Wall. Back then most experts believe tearing down the wall is close to impossible.

Sometimes dramatic change happen from small unthinkable place. Small protest took place in town, police did nothing. Then another town also got protest. Then another, & another & another. Soon 1 million protesters in Berlin & wall......

anon 22:32,
What lucky stated in his blog are mostly stuff lacking by govt.

When one is successful for a long time, they tend to stick with their winning strategy. In times of rapid change this is dangerous.
Having much to lose, they tend to stick with status quo. Fear is more dominant than courageous experimentation.

I just returned a rental dvd to machine around midnight. Walked past a few blocks. I saw elderly sleeping on void deck decks & tables. I don't see such sight a few years back.

Can see more & more people are left behind.

Anonymous said...

Thanks for this overdue post.

I saw the headline some time ago, but couldn't bother to click on it.

LKY has outlived his chameleon skin. He makes "predictions" depending on how the wind blows, much like his actions.

As post65, I know how my life has improved (or not) over the years compared to my parents' generation. GDP growth is no longer tied to income level of ordinary Singaporeans --- crystal sparkling clear.

greyfox said...

Wait a minute. Does his million dollar salary include predicting the future? Don't think that is in his job scope. No one can predict the future, no matter how smart you are. If you are dump enough to believe in his predictions, it is you own fault. If he gets it right, that is call luck. Get real.

Anonymous said...

greyfox said... "Wait a minute. Does his million dollar salary include predicting the future? Don't think that is in his job scope. No one can predict the future, no matter how smart you are. If you are dump enough to believe in his predictions, it is you own fault. If he gets it right, that is call luck. Get real."




If he gets right, he takes credit and have more pay raise for himself, no? When did we ever see him held accountable for shooting off his mouths? But he sure knows how to pad his own pockets.

greyfox said...

If he wants a pay rise, he just give himself a pay rise. Who is to say no to him? He doesn't have to give any reason. Get real.

Anonymous said...

Hello Lucky,
I've been following your blog and would like some advice. How do you invest when you believe the market is due for a correction?

(I believe you mentioned that options in Singapore are overpriced and not worth their value.)

Anonymous said...

Thanks Lucky, for being brave enough to question and expose the truth. You know what is the basic problem with us,we dare not question or criticise, because we have been engineered to praise and be rewarded. Just like dogs being rewarded for doing a taught trick. I am also sick of all the the accolades being pinned on the old man's soldier for things which were in truth a collective effort of many. Yet no one dares to question him on the grave mistakes caused by his myopic vision on certain areas (definitely not succession planning). The most glaring would his population control policy, which is cause for our present situation and could lead to social unrest due to the huge influx of foriegners. There is a limit to idol worship, and to think that a man can do no wrong is simply Singaporean

Anonymous said...

"There is a limit to idol worship, and to think that a man can do no wrong is simply Singaporean"

This is not a unique trait of Singaporeans. The North Koreans are doing it too. So did the Chinese during Mao's era and the Soviets during Stalin's era. The only difference is Singapore is a democratic country.

On you point of succession planning, there is a very good succession plan. It depends on who's perpertive you're talking about. I don't think I need to make it any clearer to you.

I happen to think the population control policy was necessary 30 years ago. Perhaps it could have been discontinued sooner. Without the policy, the country then simply did not have the resources the educate and house the growing population. We would end up with huge number of unemployed and unskilled labour. That will be a real problem in a place like Singapore. Yes, we are paying the price of the policy today but the price without such a policy is even higher.

Anonymous said...

Sorry for this belated reminder.

I just cant stop myslelf fr going back to the days when a Harvard professor was the GURU of our mighty MM Lee.

He was the chap who wrote:JAPAN NUMBER 1,and immdeiately earned the full respect and admiration fr many at that time,including one PM Lee KY,who then went on to lecture the more active group of global admirers then why Japan had such a super system.LKY hasnt changed a single bit and is great to always get a ready audience,thanks largely to the British who founded the RI.

The professor and his so called number 1 country Japan are no longer crowding the world radar screen,the only exception is of course our hero,now MM Lee who has gone on to admire China and USA,one up and coming and one with huge staying power as number 1 which he wrote off in the 90+.

My 1 cent view is of course he would be proven wrong,but it does not really matter.

RIP LKY said...

This old man is full of shit, better off sleeping in a coffin with his wife..