Thursday, December 24, 2009

Andy Xie : China's property bubble will burst...

Most of China's massive stimulus package didn't go into investing in factories because its manufacturing sector suffered from overcapacity. In a video I showed several weeks ago, a large chunk of this money went into real estate speculation both residential and commercial.


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China Asset Bubbles Will Burst on Inflation, Xie Says (Update2)
By Shiyin Chen
Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) --

China’s property and stock markets are a “bubble” that will burst when inflation accelerates in 2011, former Morgan Stanley chief Asian economist Andy Xie said.

“China’s asset markets are a ponzi scheme,” Xie, now an independent economist based in Shanghai, said in an interview in Hong Kong. “Property is heading for one huge bust that will take a year and a half to unfold.

”The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index tumbled 2.1 percent today, led by a plunge in property shares including China Vanke Co., the biggest developer. A measure of real estate stocks fell 9.3 percent this week, the most since August, on concern the government will step up measures to curb property speculation.

Chinese residential prices climbed last month at the fastest pace since July 2008, spurred by China’s 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package and record lending. The Shanghai Composite has gained 71 percent this year, while the 15 real- estate shares on the MSCI China Index have risen by more than 90 percent on average.“It’s a less glamorous version of the Greenspan bubble and the story will end with inflation,” Xie said, referring to former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, who was once regarded by some observers as the greatest central banker and has seen his legacy criticized since the U.S. subprime-mortgage market collapsed in 2007.

Interest Rates

Economists estimate China’s interest rates may increase 54 basis points in the second half of next year, Bloomberg data show. One basis point is 0.01 percent. Borrowing costs may climb 54 basis points to 81 basis points in the second quarter, according to Gabriel Gondard, Shanghai-based deputy chief investment officer at Fortune SGAM Fund Management Co., which oversees about $7.2 billion in assets.A central bank survey this week showed almost half of Chinese view inflation as excessive, contrasting with government figures showing that consumer prices have fallen for most of this year. On Dec. 11, the government announced that consumer prices climbed 0.6 percent in November from a year earlier, snapping a nine-month run of deflation. Prices will stay largely stable and the chances of significant inflation next year are not big, the nation’s top economic planning agency said Dec. 14.“Inflation is a concern,” Mark Konyn, who helps oversee about $12 billion as chief executive officer in Hong Kong at RCM Asia Pacific Ltd., said in an interview yesterday. “It will be an issue in 2010.”‘

Struggle

In the shorter term, China’s yuan-denominated stocks may “struggle” in the next three to four months before staging a rally that may help the market exceed its 2009 highs as banks resume lending, Xie, who correctly predicted in April 2007 that China’s equities would tumble, told Bloomberg Television.The Shanghai Composite, tracking the larger of China’s two stock exchanges, has fallen 10 percent from this year’s Aug. 4 peak of 3,471.44.Poly Real Estate, China’s second-largest developer, plunged 7.5 percent to 21.88 yuan today, its ninth straight loss. China Vanke dropped 6 percent to 10.59 yuan, the most since Sept. 30.Property stocks slumped this week after the Xinhua News Agency reported the government will target “excessive” growth in property prices in some cities. That follows the cabinet’s statement last week that it will re-impose a sales tax on homes sold within five years, after cutting the period to two years in January. Even after this week’s retreat, the measure of property shares has gained 99 percent, the second-best performer among the gauge’s 10 industry groups.

New Highs?

“Markets are going to struggle in the next three to four months and then afterwards, China’s lending policy may help it along in the second half,” he said. “It’s possible that the A- share market may make a new high in terms relative to the Aug. 4 high this year.”Xie said today that Hong Kong stocks are also about 30 percent “overvalued” and may face a “major correction” in the next four to five months as the market factors in a possible stimulus exit by the Fed. The market may recover in the second half, he predicted.Morgan Stanley, Xie’s former employer, said this week that China’s stock market is headed for a “boom and bust” in 2010 because a rally in the first half may stall as inflation accelerates and the government withdraws some stimulus. The brokerage predicted that the MSCI China Index may rise to 81.7 next year, 29 percent higher than yesterday’s close.To contact the reporter on this story: Shiyin Chen in Singapore at schen37@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: December 18, 2009 03:10 EST

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

I guesstimates that there are more than 1 million Mainland Chinese business owners with
annual saving-bankable income of over 100,000 USD.
If you are one of them then what would you do with your money ?

Given that :
01) You already own a home (home = apartment to most Chinese).
02) You already have a car.
03) You have only one child by law.
04) You have to tend your business over 12 hours a day, 350 days a year (10-14 days off
for Chinese New Year).
05) No property tax, local tax, state tax, federal tax, no whatsoever tax.
06) Property maintenance fee 0.30 USD per square meter per (10 square feet) per month.
07) Down payment for the nth (n > 1) apartment is 30-40%
08) Mortgage interest rate 4.75% (2009-12-24)
09) Before late 70s
*) You had no right to choose the color of your cloth.
*) You were not allowed to buy more than a few sets of cloth per year.
*) You were not allowed to choose the place to live or to work.
*) Consuming even an oz of meat was a privilege reserved for those in power.
*) Rice, sugar, salt, etc. were available thru ration if you were obedient.
*) Stores all over the countries were stocked with empty shelves.

Any suggestion would be appreciated.

www.china-doll.org said...

l like Andy very much always speak the truth
www.china-doll.org

puertas metalicas exterior said...

This will not have effect as a matter of fact, that's what I suppose.