Sunday, January 10, 2010

Opposition Election Strategy - Part 2

A political compass is a 2 dimension model used to label political thoughts. The vertical axis measures one's opinion in the social sense in terms of how much political freedom an individual should have. The horizontal axis represents the one's view of how the economy should be run - towards the left more socialistic and right we have capitalistic style of economic management.

There is a survey online that you can take to see where you are on this political compass[Link].

Where do we put the PAP govt on this compass?



The PAP is somewhere on the upper right hand side. Suppose you gather a group of people to decide what kind of govt they would like to have. If they are not under the fear or danger (war) , they will naturally not give up their civil liberties, and if they are not under severe economic strain...and there are competent people that represent various parts of the political compass and a free press, what you usually get is usually a govt in the square box.

In a one man one vote system is actually quite hard to hold power staying out of the square. The electorate will naturally want to use their votes to get a govt within the box. So how does the PAP stay there for so long? Before we answer that question, I would like to roll back to a time when everything was in a political flux 50 years ago. How did the PAP get dominant power in the first place?

From the chart above showing % of votes for the PAP, you can see the PAP did not start with dominant power in 1959 elections. A large fraction broke off to form the Barisan Socialis and losses at 2 by-elections meant that PAP hang on to power with a fragile 1 seat majority. The Barisan Socialis was formed because leftwing members disagreed with PAP on various matters:

"The Big Six – Mr Lim, Mr Fong Swee Suan, Mr Woodhull, Mr Dominic Puthucheary, Mr S.T. Bani and Mr Jamit Singh – had stated that while they supported the PAP in the coming by-election, they would not compromise on issues such as detention without trial and freedoms of press, speech, assembly and organisation" - Straits Times, 27 Dec 2009[Link]

Lim Chin Siong in a Fajar article dated Aug 1961 written shortly after the formation of Barisan Socialis explained the importance of democracy and freedom because without these, people in newly independent countries previously exploited by colonialists will again later find themselves dominated and controled in a way no different from colonialism.

The Barisan Socialis had a good chance of winning the 1963 elections if not for Operation Cold Store (Feb 1963) which detained 111 leftwing activists including key members of Barisan Socialis. The weakened Barisan Socialist led by Lee Siew Choh still won 13 of the 57 seats in the Sept 1963 elections and the PAP had only 47% of the votes - the opposition had fewer seats because their support was concentrated in a few areas.

The PAP govt won by a landslide in 1968 when the Barisan Socialis boycotted the elections. The PAP then went on to win 3 more elections with 70% or more of the votes. These wins can be attributed to a weakened/repressed opposition and one-off rapid economic transformation. During this period the HDB's successful housing program improved the lives many citizens who moved from villages to housing estates. Along the way, swept by the rapid economic growth across most if not all East Asian countries, the PAP took the opportunity to repressed it opponents, shutdown independent newspapers e.g. Singapore Herald closed in 1971 when its license was revoked by the govt. The PAP soon had control over the media and a climate of fear was prevalent among the people. People were too afraid to join the opposition.

However, even with all its advantages, support for the PAP started slipping after the 1980 elections. Seeing the slippage, the PAP govt changed the rules to have GRCs in 1988. The votes it secured hit a low of 61% in 1991. With this level of support, if not for the GRC, they would have lost, maybe 10 or more seats because the 61% cannot be spread evenly across the constituencies - GRCs have the effect averaging the votes of the combined constituencies. Even with GRCs, the PAP's support was still falling, so in 1992, the PAP govt announced it will link votes to HDB upgrading right down to the number of votes for the PAP in each block[Link]. This form of pork barrel politics immediately resulted in improved results for the PAP in the next 2 elections before it started slipping again in the 2006 elections. During the 2006 elections, the PAP was announcing $400M-$500M upgrading packages all over the place but still couldn't stop the slip in support.

I walked through some amount of election history to illustrate several key points:
  • The one-off economic transformation earned widespread support for the PAP in the late 60s to late 70s is no longer possible.
  • The support for the PAP slipped with every election during the 1980-1991 period even with its control of the media & repression of opposition.
  • The PAP changed election rules and used estate upgrading to push up its votes. The also controlled the media and repressed opponents to deny the people a choice.

The one man one vote system will always pose a challenge to the PAP because of where it is positioned ideologically in the political spectrum (out of the box). Its policies are frequently unpopular among the vast majority of the voters e.g. GST hikes to cut corporate taxes..only the businesses are happy. Many vote for the PAP although they don't like the PAP policies for one of following reasons:

  • The linking of votes to upgrading.
  • They believe the myth that the PAP is super-competent, honest and efficient even though they don't agree the policies, they are willing to tolerate them. We know that this is a myth because when the same problems occur in a number of countries and the PAP handles no better than other govts - e.g. minibond issue, SARS, capture of MAS Selamat (Malaysians did it). Other govts appear to have many problems because they run countries 10-100 times the size of Singapore not because they are less competent.
  • The opposition appears weak and often portrayed as less competent by the state media.

There is little the opposition can do about estate upgrading. To overcome PAP's media control, the Internet can be harnassed to help ordinary citizens make more accurate assessments of PAP's performance. The most important thing for the opposition is the recruitment of new members. Since the PAP is so far out on the political compass, there should be a large number of pool of qualified people who do not share their views. The opposition parties should pro-actively reach out to them through seminars, talks and walkabouts.

The PAP in the past 4 years implemented a number of policies that have negatively affected a large number of ordinary Singaporeans. The most unpopular and the most poorly executed one is the foreign talent policy. The PAP govt has not been able to explain this policy clearly with regard to the number of foreigners needed and how the policy can benefit Singaporeans. So far all the direct results of this policy appear negative for ordinary Singaporeans. The next most important issue is the income gap - the fruits of economic development has not be equitably distributed among Singaporeans. A large number became worse off and many fear they will be worse off in the coming years. The 3rd issue is the cost of living which has risen sharply especially the cost of housing. The cost of housing rose much faster than the rise in income - this undermine families' ability to upgrade and young couples ability to own a home.

I believe the wind is blowing in the direction of the opposition for the coming elections. The opposition needs just to unfurl its sail to catch it - move into action, campaign passionately and confidently. Many of you think it is impossible for our opposition to achieve something as spectacular as opposition in Malaysia. Don't forget before their big win, most people also thought it would be impossible. Badawi had 64% of the votes in the 2001 elections and LHL was not too far ahead with 66% of the votes (for the PAP) during the 2006 elections.

50 comments:

Anonymous said...

Well, Lucky I do not agree with most of your point here, esp, the part where you compare with the 2008 Malaysian GE.

Singaporeans do not have as much grievances as the Malaysians, esp the Minorities issues. And Singapore has a smaller percentage of minorities compare to Malaysia.

The Malaysian oppositons parties are pretty much establish parties and what they needed was someone like Anwar to unite them. There isn't a Singapore opposition that is even close to its Malaysian counterpart in this respect. As the Chinese saying goes,its" a pan of loose sand." God bless as long as they don't fight among themselves.

As for the kiasu and kiasi Singapore voters, there is a higher level of percieved fear in Singapore and also the PAP had also some what convince them that freedom and democracy is not important compare to their rice bowl.

I still think, the old man has to go first before we can see change.

Anonymous said...

Lucky,

If you expect Singaporeans to read such articles, or even listen to something similar during elections, be prepared to lose!

Most Singaporeans don't give a shit about your chart!

Are you talking to the masses, or the elite few?

Be careful that in your quest to whack PAP, you don't end up following their example; catering to the elite.

Most Singaporeans, including the highly educated, care more for their pockets and their immediate gains.

Anonymous said...

I believe the pap is going to get a rude shock this time, losing at least 10 seats to the oppositions.

One key factor: the Malay who had given them overwhelming support in the past, is going to vote against the pap for bringing so many PRC FTs.

Anonymous said...

Singapore is small so GRC or single seat is about the same with rich and poor voters. Also sure have some HDB housing estates.

If not the same can redraw boundary, like include Bukit Timah or Serangoon garden area into some GRC or single seat. Rich people sure support PAP what.

Anyway with 5 million people, 66% are OK no problem achieving what. Not like China with 1 billion you want 66% OK no joke man.

Anonymous said...

I'm not as optimistic as u. Many voters don't use Internet n their only source of info is msm n tv. These non stop brainwashing will make d voters dull n predictable.

Until all s'porean access d Internet alternative news then there mdybe a change

Anonymous said...

Is it possible to vote out PAP ?

YES, DEFINITELY. ALL YOU NEED TO DO IS SIMPLY TO DO YOUR PART IN CASTING YOUR VOTE FOR OPP PARTY. THERE IS POWER IN UNITY. BY YOURSELF, YOU THINK YOUR VOTE DOESN'T MAKE A DIFFERENCE, BUT BY VOLUME IT PERFORMS MIRACLE.

DO NOT BE SO STUPID TO VOID YOUR VOTE BECAUSE EVERY VOTE COUNT FOR OPP PARTY. PAP ALREADY SECURE A CONVINCING WIN BY THEIR KANGAROO FOREIGNER POLICIES AND ILLEGALISED CORRUPTION TO LINK STATE RESOURCE WITH VOTE AMONG THEIR KANGAROO TACTICS.

IF YOU DO NOT WANT TO HELP YOURSELF, NO GOD WILL EVEN HELP YOU. YOU CAN CRY AND WHINE BUT THOSE MIW WILL IGNORE AND DESPISE YOU AND PUNISHING YOU WITH MORE PAY AND PAY SCHEME TO ENRICH THEIR WEALTH.

DO NOT BE NAIVE TO THINK THAT YOU CAN HAVE OPPORTUNITY FOR ANOTHER ELECTION BECAUSE YOU ARE ALREADY IRRELEVANT AND REPLACED BY FOREIGNERS IN THE SHORT TERM. IN THE LONG TERM YOU ARE AS GOOD AS DEAD FISH.

LET THE NEXT ELECTION BE PAP'S ARMAGEDDON AND TOGETHER WE CAN MAKE IT HAPPEN.

Anonymous said...

"Many voters don't use Internet n their only source of info is msm n tv."

TRUE, THEN IT IS OUR DUTY AND RESPONSIBILITY AS PATRIOTIC CITIZEN TO SPREAD THE NEWS AND REPORT THE FACT OF PAP'S OPPRESSION AND LEEGALISED CORRUPTION. LET US EDUCATE PEOPLE WHO UNABLE TO USE THE NET. LET US WAKE THEM UP FROM THEIR SLUMBER BECAUSE THEIR DAY OF RECKONING IS NUMBERED.

WHATEVER GOD LESSER MORTALS PRAY TO WILL TURN A BLIND EYES TO THEM IF THEY COULDN'T EVEN HELP THEMSELVES.

WE HAVE BEEN DECEIVED BY MYTH OF SINGAPORE'S MIRACLE AS TAUGHT BY PAP. SO FOR ONCE IN THIS LIFETIME, LET US THE CITIZEN PERFORM THE TRUE MIRACLE IN VOTING THE FALSE RULERS OF SIN. LET'S NOT THE SIN OF OUR GREED AND FEAR PASS ON TO FUTURE GENERATION.

LuckySingaporean said...

anon 23:50

:::
esp, the part where you compare with the 2008 Malaysian GE
Singaporeans do not have as much grievances as the Malaysians::

In 2004, Badawi had 64% support versus 66% for Lee Hsien Long in 2006. It is very close. Singaporeans have many grievances build up over time and I believe some of it is very serious like the FT & Housing issue.

Even if we don't see a Malaysia type political tsunami. The effects will be there.

anon 02:08,

:::Until all s'porean access d Internet alternative news then there mdybe a change::::

The Internet is only one part of the overall picture. The Internet penetration in Malaysia is even lower but the Internet was instrumental in swinging the votes.

Although most people don't read the Internet directly...the story about the blogger who tried to get a cake from OCBC has travelled to every corner of Singapore.

Anonymous said...

Good analysis.

Anonymous said...

Many older people in spore are jobless or under employment.
THEY ARE VERY FREE. THEY ARE VERY BORING.
If u go to CC, you can see many such very poor - old people go there to read free newsapaper.
If someone can take the initiative and teach or train them to use internet (for free), it will have a big impact.
Many of these older people have internet at home because their children use them. They do not know how to use them, so they go cc to read free newsapaper. They can't even afford newspaper because too expensive at S$1 a copy.

Kenneth said...

I can add a fourth reason to the voting of PAP even when the people are not pleased.

The subtle fear that PAP is able to trace their vote and deny them promotions, education opportunities and benefits later in their lives. Catherine Lim sums it all up very well in her article.

Anonymous said...

The "Wan Bao" are now so expensive. If u have access to the internet, who want to pay so much money read such "news"??
And "Wan Bao" have a lot of impact (and influences) on the older people in spore.
If there are more mandarin and dialect short movies (and short articls in Chinese) on the internet, and if the older people are able to use internet to read news, that could make a big differenc.

Anonymous said...

The PAP will win! the only party that can keep the prosperity. Freedom of speech, media and all that western crap are snot. economic preservation and growth are key.

we must have a new opeation to eliminate the internet separatists and digital communist. their fanning of hatred is an act of treason.

Lim Leng Hiong said...

"we must have a new opeation to eliminate the internet separatists and digital communist. their fanning of hatred is an act of treason." - Anon 10/1/10 10:59

You think you are watching Star Wars ah?

What "separatist" talking you?

The Rebel Alliance of Sentosa? Or Pulau Sudong Independence?

Or Wookiees from Yew Tee?*

*It rhymes.

Anonymous said...

the fact that "vote the pap out" facebook by alex (who only became famous recently) is gathering over 2000 fans less than a month shows that the winds are indeed changing.

Anyway,there's no need to get everyone to vote for opposition. just a swing of abt 10-20% vote will do the job.

Anonymous said...

Overseas Singaporeans help to lay mines to blow up the PAP dogs.

Anonymous said...

I think the time and mood is right for major change in Singapore. I am very confident that the pap will lose big - at least 10 seats. They may even have their 2/3 majority threaten. Though I think they will probalby retain it.
1. More new and younger voters are coming in and most of them are fedup with the way the pap bully the oppositions and Singaporeans.
2. Under LHL, the pap has tripped over a number of mis-steps in their total obsession with driving the economy at all cost.
3. Singaporeans these days are more cynical but more brave. The mood is definitely anti-pap except for those very successful ones who are immuned from the daily hardships of the vast majority of Singaporeans.
4. Foreigners are crowding out the number of successful Singaporeans as can be seen from the disappearing middle class.
5. International attention is restraining the pap from manipulating the electorial system in their favour.

Anonymous said...

" just a swing of abt 10-20% vote will do the job."

Don't be naive. Even a swing of this pathetic percents means that the foreigner policy and kangaroo law changes are still going to go through anyway by majority of PAP MPs vote. The win is what matter now, not wayang number.

Anonymous said...

//we must have a new opeation to eliminate the internet separatists and digital communist. their fanning of hatred is an act of treason. 10/1/10 10:59//

another deranged self-appointed vigilante on the loose.

//Freedom of speech, media and all that western crap are snot. economic preservation and growth are key.//

Aren't you exercising it here. Think "and" not "either" on freedom of speech and economic preservation which can feed on one another positively.

a kind of chicken said...

I agree with you whole heartedly.

In the past, people supported the PAP as the best, long term solution to Singapores problems, no one but the most delusional members still believes so. The tide is turining.

Anonymous said...

Hi Lucky,

I would hesitate to be so positive for 2 reasons. For sure, PAP's percentage of valid votes has been decreasing, but for real change in political power requires 2 huge hurdles to be passed, neither of which is likely in the coming elections.

1. Opposition parties' lack of unity. At the last election, despite some amount of opposition inter-party co-operation, 3-way fights were still present. This results in the "dislike PAP" votes (to borrow Yawning Bread's terminology) to be split between the 2 oppositions, resulting in PAP winning.

2. GRC's. As long as the GRC dilution effect is present, PAP is likely to win. Compound the effect over several GRC's, PAP still end up with more than 2/3 of parliamentary majority. Thus PAP can still rough-ride any policy through.

I'm not optimistic that the above will be overcome. Not in the coming election, anyway.

Anonymous said...

whatever your grievances are towards the pap(mostly PERSONAL), few can deny they have more or less achieved what most government failed to do.

fifty years of peace, progress and prosperity is nothing to sniff at.

they have laid the foundation and created opportunities for you to make something of yourself however, happiness is subjective.

but to those who feel you have been denied the opportunity to do what they have been given the privilege to do, you can still try voluntary or social work if that's not beneath you.

remember, the 12 were not chosen by people. the man picked 12 to form his rule.

Anonymous said...

now is the time to change..not only for us but for next new generation...time to rise up and say no..

xl said...

Nice chart. Same suspicion as me on interpreting where pap lies on the chart. In the past i swallowed whatever programming by pap. I don't understand why my parents always vote opposition when the country has progressed much. Msian friends told me our govt very good compared to theirs. Now that i'm older & no longer so naive i started to see the other side of the coin.

To those who doubt, perhaps look at Fall of Berlin wall. Experts on both sides doubt wall will come down anytime in near future. So many nuclear missiles pointing at each other. Something that went to extreme for extended periods would eventually encounter a 'tipping point' & revert back to the mean.

While i do agree with MM Lee that locals have gotten soft due to our comfort compared to foreigners who got drive & will to do well, his party policies lately has been rather extreme. Don't quite agree with his philishopy of strongest survive, poor ought to die. If that's the case then pandas, polar bears etc etc ought to be extinct since cannot better than humans.

[thanks for link. i'm -3 on left-right & -0.63 top-bottom]

Anonymous said...

i believe the gist of the analysis is simple, that it is in fact possible, if we put aside our 'disbelieve' n simple vote based on the results of the last 5 years, then there will be a significant swing away from the PAP.

Even if the swing results in less than 1/3 seats in favour of the alternative, it could be seen as a clear signal from the electorate that what has been done in the past 4 - 5 years by the PAP, can and should not be repeated.

They cannot be continuing to argue and justify our continued support based on what they managed to achieve for 1963 to 80s or 90s.

Our million dollar ministers failed to see the asian economic crisis, the bursting of the dot.com bublle, the SARS epidemic, the global financial meltdown, etc, just like all other governments around the world.

A government that over-promises and under-delivers need to pay the price at the ballot.

No outcome can be worse than what we have endured in the last 5 years.

I believe that we will not be worse off even if the PAP does not form the next government.

The alternative, though untested, are committed to ensure that Singapore succeeds, and it is pure rhetoric that a 2-party or multi-party parliament will result in the fall from grace of Singapore.

Lim Leng Hiong said...

"whatever your grievances are towards the pap(mostly PERSONAL), few can deny they have more or less achieved what most government failed to do." - Anon 11/1/10 00:00

Not quite.

If 2 people have the same grievance towards the government, that can be easily considered "personal".

If 2,000 people have the same grievance - a minority complaint. Can be dismissed with a small amount of mainstream media "correction".

If 200,000 people have the same grievance - a notable concern. Will need a massive amount of media bombardment and candy-tossing to resolve that.

If 2,000,000 people have the same grievance, well, I don't know what you would prefer to call it, but it certainly isn't "personal" anymore.

"they have laid the foundation and created opportunities for you to make something of yourself however, happiness is subjective."

Wrong again.

If 2 people are unhappy about the same thing, that can be easily considered "subjective".

If 2,000 people are unhappy... OK, you get the idea.

Anonymous said...

Singaporeans are known to be complainers. Maybe those who think they can do a better job than the over paid ministers should consider setting up a complain bureau similar to CASE so "grievances" that have been ignored, swept under the carpet or unjustly attended to by the powers may report these cases to those who distrust and hate pap monopolistic and dictatorial ways.
I think they will stand a better chance of toppling the incumbent if all these complains were the fault of pap and not theirs( please ensure thorough investigation to these "grievances" or risk being sued for false accusation)
Build up enough number of cases( no need 2000000, 200000 will do), and publish these cases in a book( sure outsell chee's book) and peddle it to the masses, I assure you, pap will be history.
Anyone game for the challenge???

Lim Leng Hiong said...

"Singaporeans are known to be complainers. Maybe those who think they can do a better job than the over paid ministers should consider setting up a complain bureau similar to CASE so "grievances" that have been ignored, swept under the carpet or unjustly attended to by the powers may report these cases to those who distrust and hate pap monopolistic and dictatorial ways."

What a strange suggestion.

Why not just vote for other candidates who have the potential to do a better job?

"I think they will stand a better chance of toppling the incumbent if all these complains were the fault of pap and not theirs( please ensure thorough investigation to these "grievances" or risk being sued for false accusation)"

Why not just vote?

"Build up enough number of cases( no need 2000000, 200000 will do), and publish these cases in a book( sure outsell chee's book) and peddle it to the masses, I assure you, pap will be history.
Anyone game for the challenge???"

Er... just vote?

You sound like an anonymous government supporter - if you are doing this at 2 am on Monday morning then I suspect they have to be paying you really well indeed.

Anonymous said...

generally, there are three violations/breaches that will bring the gahmen down.
1)corruption-internal and external
2)incompetence
3)making life miserable for the majority.

prove the above three(must be together) conclusively and we shall have a new government if not, more oppositions in parliament.

Anonymous said...

Most of the older people are poor. They have no job, no promotion to talk about. They have little future. They have plenty of times. Some of them are well educated (in Chinese). They are asking for very little. They can satisfy easily.
If you can win they hearts & minds, you will have a great advantage.

Anonymous said...

To be honest, I have not seen any tangible efforts by the opposition to really change even if they are voted in. They have not been effective and many times, fumble in parliament on issues. I do wish that there are better opposition candidates, not that I like the ruling party. I think there are some who like to be in it for the MP's allowance, opposition or not.

Anonymous said...

i wonder whether the coming election will prove that singaporeans got balls as much as malaysians...

vote out pap, or i'll really really must emigrate.

Anonymous said...

No Case

lim said...

@anon 11/1/10 09:59

>> They have not been effective and many times, fumble in parliament on issues.

At least the opposition MPs, NCMP bother to be in parliament, when compared to so many pap "absentees" mp who didn't even bring up issues..

And also, 2 votes against 82, how can they be effective? If you want effective opposition, you must deny pap 2/3 majority in parliament.

Anonymous said...

Anon 10/1/10 10:30,
"If there are more mandarin and dialect short movies (and short articls in Chinese) on the internet, and if the older people are able to use internet to read news, that could make a big differenc."

You mean something like this translated speech in cantonese, this song in Teochew, and this election speech in Mandarin with perfect accent? Btw, Malay is important too :)

Anonymous said...

Good for nothing only know how to wayang and collect fat paycheck.

runroad said...

'remember, the 12 were not chosen by people. the man picked 12 to form his rule.'

Well bugger me with a changkol, now I've heard everything! You are actually drawing a parallel between LKY and Jesus Christ???? ROFLMAO!!!

Whatever next? Will LKY be miraculously resurrected 3 days after he kicks the bucket and will it be a new golden age with Singapore as the Promised Land of soy bean milk and chapati? Will he turn New Water into wine for his cronies to get pissed on as they enjoy the free loaves and fishies that he magics up?

Dun worry, I'll be sure to vote PAP just as soon as I see him walking across MacRitchie Reservoir without drowning like a rat. Until then I'm voting the opposition.

Alan Wong said...

PAP will most probably lose support from these groups :-

1) Singaporeans fed up with lower wages, higher costs & taxes
2) Jobless PMETs and workers who lost jobs to foreign immigrants
3) Malays threatened by greater influx of non-Malay citizens
4) Gays and singles discriminated by Govt's pro-family policies
5) Singaporeans sidelined in tertiary opportunities and language policies
6) Singaporeans disillusioned with PAP's unfair tactics towards political opponents
7) Young idealists disillusioned with PAP's elitist style of leadership

I think for the next GE, PAP will have to work harder on how to 'fix' the opposition as for this time round, it will not be to convince us that the carrots are for real !

Anonymous said...

Mr Lucky

As u correctly identified, the turning point was when Barisan Socialis stuck to pretty ideals and boycotted the elections. The rest, as they say is history.

Fast forward to 2010, Mr Lucky Tan is still sticking to his noble ideals.

Pls wake up.

Elections need money. In a capitalistic country, $=power.

Up north, the opposition coalition has money.

Lucky Tan. Money. Money. Money.

Let me explain in simple terms .. again ... why the opposition in the present form will LOSE. BAD.

Take Mr average John Tan. Low-mid level wage slave. With HDB loan. And others. A retrenchment/major illness away from ruin.

To Lucky Tan, the pre-election handouts is nothing.
To John, its life saving manna from *lightning* God.

To well educated Lucky Tan, voting opposition is common sense.
To not so well educated John, its Quantum Physics.

To the clever Lucky Tan, that PAP would waste resources on nobodies who vote opposition is nonsense only morons would believe.

John is a moron.

If things turn sour, Mr Lucky Tan have no problems relocating.
To John, black-marked by PAP is a death sentence.

Yes, the other reason why opposition will lose is that PAP understand what is happening on the ground. They pay the grassroots leaders very well.
Opposition like Lucky Tan stick to their books and wiki wondering why the voters do not vote for them.

Mr Tan.
elections are expensive.
Money Money Money.

Anonymous said...

There are actually a large pool of people dislike govt recent action and policy. As we have know, the people are been "educated" from young that there is a fear to vote for opposition even though their heart is with opposition.

If opposition is able to somehow provide assuarance of voting opposition with no ill after effect.

Anonymous said...

All there needs is for a sizable swing in the support for the PM and MM in their respective GRCs, making them one of the poorest performers at the next general election...

The initial response from the rest of the PAP would be that they still support the PM.

However, the PM and MM political capital would have diminished greatly after that, and we may see a transition period where a new Prime Minister takes over, with the PAP taking a different direction.

Vote for change.... it is more likely that you image... a change of leadership within the PAP after the next elections.

Anonymous said...

I have to agree with the first post in the comments, that the old man needs to go first before any real change can be seen.

But having said that, I also feel that the present situation would result in a drop in support for the incumbent that will be sufficient to divide the PAP internally as a result of the reduced political influence of the old man and his son.

The next election may well spell the need for a new PM, given that it is not possible to reverse the present policy in terms of housing and FT, etc without detrimental effect on the overall Singapore economy.

It would therefore end with a change of leadership within the present PAP to signal an acceptance of the stand taken by the electorate.

Anonymous said...

This is wishful thinking. We Singaporeans (me included) are a apthetic lot. PAP will be in power for the next 30 years, at least. Even with a (small) proportion of the population awakening, they are easily overwhelmed by our "new citizens" who I feel will lean towards supporting the PAP. I mean, didnt they emigrate to Singapore thinking this is better to where they came from? Would these new Singaporeans want to change something they specifically came here for? Not likely. Also, you can count on the PAP to have many more tricks up their sleeves. Call it pork-barrel or whatever, these work wonders on shallow-minded people like me. I'm now eagerly awaiting the next pre-GE bonu$... Seriously I hv too many bills to pay for me to care about stupid darn politics

Anonymous said...

39% voted of all the valid votes went against the PAP in 1991.

In all likelihood, given that there may well be a significant portion of the population that is apathetic, it is likely that the overall percentage garnered by the PAP in the 2010/2011 elections will be lower than in 1991.

A win for the PAP is without a doubt, the pertinent question therefore is, how much lower will their share of votes be.....

........the triggering point for change within the PAP leadership, to do away with the aggressive and arrogant attitude displayed most prominently by the old man and his son.

Hazel Poa Koon Koon said...

Hello, Lucky Tan. I have been following your blog for some time and was delighted to see you urging the opposition parties to " pro-actively reach out to them through seminars, talks and walkabouts. "

On behalf of the Reform Party, I would like to invite you and your readers to a discussion forum on 23 Jan 1:30pm at Berkshire School Pte Ltd, 100 Beach Road #02-19A, Shaw Towers, Singapore 189702. The topic for this month is Education (for mainstream and special needs children).

As you know, we are a new party slightly over one year old, but active for less due to the death of our founder. Many of our policies are works-in-progress. Through the discussion forums, we hope to seek views and suggestions from as many quarters as possible, and to introduce ourselves and our beliefs to fellow Singaporeans. Registration for the event can be done via our facebook - The Reform Pary, or email to me hazelpoa@gmail.com

We would be very happy if you and your readers could come. Give us the benefits of your thoughts, or just come and buy some books lah!

On a separate, personal note, thank you very much for your blog!

Ittakescourage2migratebutittakesmorecourage2stayinSingapore said...

MY FELLOW NATIVE SINGAPOREANS,

THE PAP IS DESIGNING OF NEW SOCIETY. A SIMILAR SOCIETY LIKE IN THE 70s WHERE UNCERTAINS MAKE THE CITIZENS COMPLIANT TO ANYTHING WITH THIS "FOREIGN" TALENT POLICY. I could quite fairly firmly believe that if they are NOT toppple within this crucial 10 years, they are here to stay with the new citizens voting them in. Now, I'd like to say to you, "If the spurs are in your hide, and the native Singaporeans are struggling, that's their problem! Not mine." ;-)

Anonymous said...

MY FELLOW NATIVE SINGAPOREANS,

THE PAP IS DESIGNING OF NEW SOCIETY. A SIMILAR SOCIETY LIKE IN THE 70s WHERE UNCERTAINTIES MAKE THE CITIZENS COMPLIANT TO ANYTHING WITH THIS "FOREIGN" TALENT POLICY WHICH HAS BEEN IN PLACE SINCE THE LAST 8 YEARS. I could quite fairly firmly believe that if the PAP is NOT toppple within this crucial 10 years, they are here to stay with the new citizens voting them in for another 20-25 years more. Now, I'd like to say to you, "If the spurs are in your hide, and the native Singaporeans are struggling, that's their problem! Not mine." ;-)

GLOW said...

JUST LET US VOTE..

No 3 - corner fight please.. only winner is PAP.. losers are the people..

contest every seat.. the people will get a chance to have a referendum on the PAP..

critise the PAP unabashedly.. call a monumental Fxxk Up a monumental Fxxk Up...

tear down their arguments in a way the polple can understand.. eg.. LSH explanations.. http://theonlinecitizen.com/2009/12/year-in-review-hdb-flats-subsidy-affordability-prices/

Moe Gan Thai said...

I hope come the GE, all oppositions can cooperate and contest all 84 seats, win or lose does not matter.Important is: don't let pap have walkover. Try to swing 10 to 15% of the votes to oppositions.pap votes will be 56% or 51%. Then they will respect you, next time they want to any how change the law.

www.filmoteca.biz said...

So, I do not really think this will work.