Thursday, April 08, 2010

Mah Bow Tan : We don't fudge the numbers....

Yeah? But they are pretty good producing nice graphs.

In yesterday's Straits Times article about HDB flats being affordable, there was this chart:

It shows household income rising in tandem with HDB prices.

Credit goes to Hazel Poa[Link] for unveiling the trick here. Move the base year around and you get some other interesting graphs, here's one of the graphs generated by Hazel Poa:


Yes, not so "in tandem" if the base year was 2001. In fact only when you choose 1999 to be the base year instead of any other year in the last 10 years, you can show this "in tandem" movement.

Someone dropped a comment to the previous post on the topic to say that using household income is really inappropriate.

Definitions of household income[Wikipedia]

1. The residents of the household do not have to be related to the head of the household for their earnings to be considered part of the household's income

2.That the size of a household is not commonly taken into account in such measures may distort any analysis of fluctuations within or among the household income categories, and may render direct comparisons between quintiles difficult or even impossible.[3]

Using resident (which includes PRs) household income instead of Singaporeans household income takes us even further from the real situation for Singaporeans. The fact is HDB flats are expensive and put Singaporeans in debt for 30 years and that takes away their financial ability to retire properly.

45 comments:

Anonymous said...

Oh dear lucky...why u like dat. Soon we'll expect ANOTHER article on Mah on MSN...kind of sick of his explanation leh

Anonymous said...

Good job...like MIWs, we've also learnt the art of shifting the goalpost from 1999 to 2001

Anonymous said...

Dear Lucky,

I have followed your blog for a long time now. Your tone has changed a lot but the message is still the same less the humour. I miss your sarcastic wit haha.

By the way, I heard from a little bird ( an old one ;p ) that election is coming very soon.

Cheers and take care now,
Economist with a heart :)

Anonymous said...

I'm so angry and sad that they keep trying to deceive us. 4 room flat already hit 900K in some areas...

Aurvandil said...

This just the latest in a series of funny statistics which Mr Mah thinks he can use to fool "daft" Singaporeans.

Goh Meng Seng had previously explored another trick.

http://singaporealternatives.blogspot.com/2010/03/myth-and-truth-of-hdb-ii.html

In a highly innovative use of statistics, Mr Mah showed that HDB flats are affordable by the looking at the median income of those who had bought a flat !

If you use the HDB methodology, you can prove all sorts of things. For example, you can prove that $100,000 Rolex watches are affordable. This is because you can:

1) Limit your sampling frame to people who had bought Rolex watches in the past 12 months

2) Calculate the average income of this group of people (e.g. $200,000 per month)

3) Conclude that $100,000 Rolex watches are “affordable” because they cost less than 5% of annual income of those who bought them !!!

Btw, you can no longer find those tables in the HDB web site. After the trick got exposed, they were quietly removed.

Anonymous said...

Very simple. The minute i read the part where Mah uses loan tenure of 30 yrs in his computation of affordability, i switch off liao. No arguments, no need to read on or listen to him further. Pure and simple: HDBs are now overpriced and not affordable.

Anonymous said...

Hi, we need more people like you.

It is very hard or may I said "daft"---MM lee to be an opposition. But like I always tell my Friend, sit down and blame the government and worst I don;t want my opposition to lower my property price! What a Singaporean we have become!

let me share my thoughts on HDB price.

The PAP had to restore to property to finance our retirement or may I said pension.

Very sad, they know we have used up 60% of the CPF in Housing, most people left with 20 to 30% for CPF life and the rest is in Medisave.

If they don;t not let this 60% of eggs appreciate over times, we are all in trouble as inflation creeps in.

We are in Deflation after the 1996 housing bubble until PAP started to use the FR to fill up the demands. the problems are same as Japan.

a. Birthrate 1.2
b. population aging
c. housing stagnant 1997 to 2004
d. Competitive age loss to China and India

Use the FT large influx never mind about the discomfort and subsequent social issues.
They achieve it, 5 million in 10 years. tell me which country can grow their population 20% in ten years.

Cheap FT everwhere, demand for house is up, economy will growth and when 2020 to 2030 come, the baby boomers can collect their pension,CPF or sell their house to the new wave of FT to turn to Singaporean.

Problems solve for the next 10 to 20n years.
IF not from the netcitizen- they will continue to growth until 6.5 million in 2020. that;s their plan.

Now people complaining , slow down a bit and once election over, they will continue.

So, HDB will never dropped their price because, they can collect more money from the new Singaporean or young Singaporean and once the old Singaporean sell their old mature estate house, they can fetch a good price and got money to retire.

So, Using property to fund the immediate 10 to 20 years pension needs of the old Singaporean!

Who is going to pay for it? Young Singaporean or FT
who had converted to Singaporean and buying HDB.

Thats is it. I hope my children is not gong to pay for it.

We need just another crisis to test the resolve of new Singaporean and see how HDB is going to keep rising price.

Look at the COE, if not from the change in formula
COE cannot going for about 50K. the agent already said last month it will go up!.

PAP solution is using money as the best way to solve problems. Market forces with them controlling the supply.

Pls I dont pay millions to them to tell me that I need to pay 50K for COE or price is Ok in housing.

Now if you vote for them in next election. they will do something to the HDB. Once you sell your house, they lock up the profits and you can only use it if the minimum sum and medisave are topped up to the ever uprising targets. I suspect it will hit 200k and 50K in 10 years time respectively.

After election is the payback time.
What happen to our CPF----no eyes to see

Anonymous said...

Hi, we need more people like you.

It is very hard or may I said "daft"---MM lee to be an opposition. But like I always tell my Friend, sit down and blame the government and worst I don;t want my opposition to lower my property price! What a Singaporean we have become!

let me share my thoughts on HDB price.

The PAP had to restore to property to finance our retirement or may I said pension.

Very sad, they know we have used up 60% of the CPF in Housing, most people left with 20 to 30% for CPF life and the rest is in Medisave.

If they don;t not let this 60% of eggs appreciate over times, we are all in trouble as inflation creeps in.

We are in Deflation after the 1996 housing bubble until PAP started to use the FR to fill up the demands. the problems are same as Japan.

a. Birthrate 1.2
b. population aging
c. housing stagnant 1997 to 2004
d. Competitive age loss to China and India

Use the FT large influx never mind about the discomfort and subsequent social issues.
They achieve it, 5 million in 10 years. tell me which country can grow their population 20% in ten years.

Cheap FT everwhere, demand for house is up, economy will growth and when 2020 to 2030 come, the baby boomers can collect their pension,CPF or sell their house to the new wave of FT to turn to Singaporean.

Problems solve for the next 10 to 20n years.
IF not from the netcitizen- they will continue to growth until 6.5 million in 2020. that;s their plan.

Now people complaining , slow down a bit and once election over, they will continue.

So, HDB will never dropped their price because, they can collect more money from the new Singaporean or young Singaporean and once the old Singaporean sell their old mature estate house, they can fetch a good price and got money to retire.

So, Using property to fund the immediate 10 to 20 years pension needs of the old Singaporean!

Who is going to pay for it? Young Singaporean or FT
who had converted to Singaporean and buying HDB.

Thats is it. I hope my children is not gong to pay for it.

We need just another crisis to test the resolve of new Singaporean and see how HDB is going to keep rising price.

Look at the COE, if not from the change in formula
COE cannot going for about 50K. the agent already said last month it will go up!.

PAP solution is using money as the best way to solve problems. Market forces with them controlling the supply.

Pls I dont pay millions to them to tell me that I need to pay 50K for COE or price is Ok in housing.

Now if you vote for them in next election. they will do something to the HDB. Once you sell your house, they lock up the profits and you can only use it if the minimum sum and medisave are topped up to the ever uprising targets. I suspect it will hit 200k and 50K in 10 years time respectively.

After election is the payback time.
What happen to our CPF n--no eyes to see

Anonymous said...

"The fact is HDB flats are expensive and put Singaporeans in debt for 30 years and that takes away their financial ability to retire properly."

you are so daft. cheap housing doesnt mean ppl will save enough for retirement. on the contrary, more money for them to spend(you no eyes to see temptation all around to bait you to buy buy buy meh?) elsewhere. if money don't go to investing in a home it will be spent on cars,jewelry, electronics products, food, glorious food, EXPENSIVE HOLIDAYS, GAMBLE GAMBLE,WHORING, mistresses, COSMETICS, PLASTIC SURGERY etc etc..

aiyoh, ask you you DAFT people, especially the STUPID opposition, which is better for these folks who are neither rich nor poor to put their money in?

waste their hard earned money on luxury and unnecessary expenses WITH NO INVESTMENT VALUE OR FUTURE RETURNS?

pls. first, ensure the bulk of their earnings go to securing future expenditure so they won't become social beggars and burden to future generation.

if they want to spend on luxuries, they just have to learn to be more useful to society like work smarter, harder, faster and better lor. HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

lim said...

@anon 8/4/10 14:00

>> on the contrary, more money for them to spend(you no eyes to see temptation all around to bait you to buy buy buy meh?) elsewhere. if money don't go to investing in a home it will be spent on cars,jewelry, electronics products, food, glorious food, EXPENSIVE HOLIDAYS, GAMBLE GAMBLE,WHORING, mistresses, COSMETICS, PLASTIC SURGERY etc etc..

Wow, I didn't know that we can use cpf for all these.. Do you happen to know that cpf is gonna be liberalise further to allow cpf $ to be used for these luxurious stuff?

Anonymous said...

Looks like the oppositions are terrorizing or bombing/destroying HDB to get into power

Becareful, you may lose the roof over your head(or plunging homeowners into severe financial debts) for many people. Notwithstanding a huge percentage of our retirees, and the coming and rising greying populace, will become serious social liabilities when confidence in the property market is lost

Like japan, they haven't gotten out of their economic devastation for decades after home prices hit rock bottom.

So don't Play And Play with people's future or you may destroy the city(and yourself) - economically.

Anonymous said...

the government is not helping our own citizen, my own experience here;

im a singapore citizen, born here, serve National Service and even completed my 10 years cycle reservist. i marry a Chinese PR, we got a new born son Nov 2009.

we try to get my wife parent here to look after our new born son, as im an orphan, my side got no relative that can help in looking after my son. we are also not high income earner, so both my wife and I need to work to support the family.

ICA reject our application. we ask them for a reason as we found out alot of our neighbour from China both couple are PR (not citizen) applied and got their parent to stay here on 5 years social visit pass.
We question them why they approve their application and not ours since Im a citizen who should get the same privilege here.
Their answer is that that approve base case by case basis, and they dont care whether you are citizen or pr.
make me sad that i lose out to pr on my own ground.

Anonymous said...

lucky implied that if we spend less on housing there will be more money left for other things like...retirement.

i say, crap. where got left over one. most people are like that. more money spend more less money spend less. do you think they care about saving for retirement? pls lah unless of course, you make enough to set aside for retirement lah

but for the average person, better the gahmen lock up a large proportion of their income for future expenditures than give them the liberty to squander their money away
but does that mean we deprive them of the joy of consumption? no. what it means is that they have to find better ways to improve themselves and earn more to spend on subsidiary. HAHAHAHAHAHA

lim said...

anon 8/4/10 15:12

>> "but for the average person, better the gahmen lock up a large proportion of their income for future expenditures than give them the liberty to squander their money away"

But it is alright for the "above average, talented" people in TH/GIC to squander singaporeans money away.. you certainly have some kind of weird argument here..

Anonymous said...

Is the MBT's dicky in the picture ?

Anonymous said...

Thanks Lucky for pointing out the wools over our eyes!!!

Damn angry, what MBT did all this???

Why?

And yes, the news article and the graph was not longer shown in the HDB website....

Hai....why?????

Anonymous said...

Hey what I read is also very fuming. What is that comparison of 40 years ago granpa buy cheap cheap HDB flat? Hey check out the prices for the last 4 years and it has gone up some at DOUBLE rate.

and like some said about rolex watches... when I first started working, my pay was 1.4k and HDB priced at 140K. Now it is 300K and so is my 3K pay.

and when will my pay be 10k for a million dollar flat hhaahhaha.

Mr Mah, please use your supreme innovative talent (like the ERP introduction) to convince us lah....

but now we have come to the point of no return and so please up the value of the flats continouosly at constant rate and let's not stop the music.. I want to live comfortably to ripe old age. The rest of the story (the bubble) leave it to the next generation lahhhhh

Alan Wong said...

I still strongly believe that most of us would be enjoying an early retirement if a large portion of the potential earnings that our CPF funds would have rightly earned had not been channelled away as the Govt's profits for further investment of the sinking funds.

If our neigbours up north can earn a modest 5~9% yearly dividend from their EPF funds over the past 20 to 30 years, I really doubt why our world-class CPF can't even achieve their minimum yield.

If it is indeed true that our hard earned CPF funds has been manipulated by our PAP govt to produce profits for themselves. what difference are they really from those daylight robbers ?

Do you want to vote for someone who is cunning enough to steal your hard earned monies to become their own investment monies ?

Anonymous said...

I can hardly what I am reading here that so many have the mindset that a home is considered as part of retirement funds? So where the hell you want to live after retirement? Depend on your kids, live in old folks home? In other parts of the world, the home is where you lived, bring up your family and lived until you die. It is a heritage that you can do whatever you want with after you are gone.

Here we think it is for us to sell so we can live comfortably in our old age. You still need a roof after retirement. So what if the prices goes up or down? As long as you have a home is all that matters, unless you can buy more than one, then you should be concern about profits. The crux of the matter is that the government is playing this game that is cause for concern as young couples are unable to afford a home to set up their basic family unit.

One more thing about this Singaporean mindset is, when will they have this attitude that life is not all about saving for old age by buying a HDB in order their retirement is secured? Life is living to the fullest in pursuit of happiness, rather than a life of drudgery paying for a roof over the head to have a decent retirement. This is pretty extreme and quite disturbing. Singaporeans really has no life at all.

Anonymous said...

read wanbao. our dear vivian actually said we shld depend on our children for $$$ when we are old.

i guess that's because a lot of our money is tied up in cpf/hdb flat. if it is not for the fact that the flats cost ridiculously expensive, there will be no need to depend on our children when we retire.

what next for our children's generation? will the cost of living/hdb flats be so high that our children's children's children will have to support their grandparents + parents????

vote wisely. kick out the pompous asses party!

btw, my 7 yo son said ERP is "electronically robbing people".

Anonymous said...

Vote for change! Vote out Mah Bow Tan! Vote in Goh Meng Seng for Cheaper housing and fatter pockets!

Vote out GST,COE AND CPF too!!!

Vote for MORE MONEY IN OUT POCKET!!!!

Vote to take back CONTROL of our own money!!

Vote wisely!!!

Anonymous said...

The PAP has no integrity. That is my conclusion.

Anonymous said...

Money is essential to singapok survival. Hence, the high value of land(deliberately engineered over the decades) is the greatest source of revenue for the government and its people and ultimately, will lift or has already lifted the standard of living for MOST people - including the poor.

To reverse and suppress our true land value is equivalent to dropping an atomic bomb in the heart of orchard road and watch it disappeared from the map

So you guys are talking rubbish when you denounce our brilliant Mr Mah BT. You should be grateful he has created so much wealth for Singapok.

Long live Mr Mah!!! Wan Suay Wan Wan Suay!

Anonymous said...

Lee Kuan Yew has structured the reward system in Singapore like a pyramid. The few at the top will have heavenly lives while all the rest slog like dogs to feed the few at the top.
Another thing few people notice is he keep on raising the bar for all except themselves. Take for e.g. those at the top. It used to be the rich Indonesians. Now even these people are losing out to the mega rich from India, China and the rest of the World.

Anonymous said...

May I suggest that we lead a reclusive lifestyle. Away from the struggles and repression of life.

Just do what is necessary and what comes. Unless we are in power then we do some changes for the bigger good.

I have given up on and currently pursuing a degree completing soon. I will lead once at the first instance if allowed.

Clarence said...

i knew it. when i saw the base year 1999 i was already very suspicious, just that I was very lazy to do the numbers.

why 1999? why not any other year? 2000 would have made sense cos it's 10 years away from now. but 1999?

The government is good at fudging numbers and those who studied statistics before know JUST HOW MISLEADING charts can be.

Anonymous said...

Free ourselves from 30 years of debt to SIN dictators! Pick the candidate that will best reduce the debt level to no more than 10 years!

Once you are freed of mortgage,you are freed to live as you choose!!

Vote wisely!

Anonymous said...

He dun have to produce such graphs and I know he is just crapping his words out from his butt again...

Till now, I still never believe in any words spoken by these puppies in the parliament. Especially the old man nowadays....

Anonymous said...

Maybe Mah should try fudging chocolate instead

Anonymous said...

Voting is hard anyway because they made it sooo hard for oppositions to come up, almost impossible because they have criterias.
If the government wants to be fair they should make voting fair !!

The said...

You should shift the base year to 2006....

Anonymous said...

pap think the singaporeans are daft. if that is so, it simply means the singapore education system has not been world class as stated.

the minister has been giving example after example why their policies are good and etc. what pap take us for. The public should be the judge of their damned policies.

pap think they earn million and are talent. i think they are talented in draining money and betraying those who voted them into the office.

I would rather vote a dog in, at least a dog is loyal. pap is totally inhuman and shameless.

Anonymous said...

From a statistics point of view, longer term data is more reliable than shorter term data. The mean and median of such data is more independent of economic cycles. Therefore Minister Mah’s chart from 1999 to last year would be more reliable compared to Hazel’s chart from 2000, 2001 or 2006 to last year.

I think the government has heard and value feedback of HDB prices from the ground. The government has increased BTO projects and legislated rules to prevent speculations in response to these feedback.

imelda said...

I have visited this site and start n i found it useful for doing a part time job i really love it!!!


earn & learn

evision said...

I have visited this site and got lots of information than other site visited before a month.


earn and learn

Anonymous said...

hdb flat price is very much influenced by supply & demand. mr mah cut the supply drastically, natural the prices went up

so now we pay high price to hdb, then the elites from the temasek holding will manage our funds......wat a brillant idea!!!

Web Design Company said...

Nice information, many thanks to the author. It is incomprehensible to me now, but in general, the usefulness and significance is overwhelming. Thanks again and good luck! Web Design Company

2011bagnews said...

One of the more miu miu matelasse bag affordable and versatile pieces from the miu miu borse collection of Miu miu luxury handbags for fall 2008 is the Monogram kfjgcxy0fsd canvas Boubourg, miu miu swallow shoes which is a classically designed tote bag with shiny brass hardware and the brown and tan classic signature print. Bear in mind that miu miu glitter shoes is the one you will probably have to hold for the entire night. miu miu satin platform pumps Therefore, it is more than important to ensure that Miu miu handbags are not only beautiful to look at, but also comfortable to hold.Another thing that you will need to consider when choosing miu miu purse sale an Miu miu handbags is the size. Do not choose an Miu miu handbag that is incredibly large, instead pick the one that is large enough to accommodate a number of essential items you want to carry with you.
Features of the luxury handbag from Miu miu include textile shoulder straps, miu miu jeweled ballet flats textile bands with leather piping down the sides, a front flat pocket, golden round studs, textile lining.

luck said...

Importantly make sure the Nike Air Max are very good vibrates resistancewe.Nike Air Griffey Max 1 with Nike shoe sole for traction technology and physical mobility Nike Free technology.TheNike Air Max 1 is a beautiful ship and very flawless.The shoes Nike Air Max 180 hovercraft significantly in the heel which is visible side of the base on most models.the design using cotton lining inspired Leahter feet. There are more and more popular, the success is to make materials and design feature styles. Nike Air Max 2009 is worth buying, rushed to use the time for direct purchase, brings great joy to you.

Nike Mercurial Vapor Superfly said...

This Nike soccer cleats ultra vibrant New nike soccer shoes ...The Nike soccer cleats has a huge army of fans across the globe, and if you're one of them we know you love them to be bright, flashy and in-your-face colours. Checking out these nike mercurial vapor superfly III fg versions, part of Nike's Fall seasonal releases, we're sure you're going to love these Nike Football Cleats too, they combine Laser technology and Nike Mercurial Vapor Superfly with the Vapor series!especially once they start appearing en masse on pitch. You can click "VIEW MORE" for more detailed pictures. New levels of performance after nike mercurial vapor superfly III new levels of performance after.

Web Design And Development Companies said...

fantastic nice information tat you shared.

qinbincai123 said...

My love is like the grasses Hidden in the deep mountains.
Though its abundance increase, There is hiehwfdh none that knows.
Wholesale New Era Hats
Cheap 59fifty Hats
Cheap New Era Hats
New Era Snapback Hats
New Era Fitted Hats

Moultriekrzj said...

Hi, we need more people like you. It is very hard or may I said "daft"---MM lee to be an opposition. But like I always tell my Friend, sit down and blame the government and worst I don;t want my opposition to lower my property price! What a Singaporean we have become! let me share my thoughts on HDB price. The PAP had to restore to property to finance our retirement or may I said pension. Very sad, they know we have used up 60% of the CPF in Housing, most people left with 20 to 30% for CPF life and the rest is in Medisave. If they don;t not let this 60% of eggs appreciate over times, we are all in trouble as inflation creeps in. We are in Deflation after the 1996 housing bubble until PAP started to use the FR to fill up the demands. the problems are same as Japan. a. Birthrate 1.2 b. population aging c. housing stagnant 1997 to 2004 d. Competitive age loss to China and India Use the FT large influx never mind about the discomfort and subsequent social issues. They achieve it, 5 million in 10 years. tell me which country can grow their population 20% in ten years. Cheap FT everwhere, demand for house is up, economy will growth and when 2020 to 2030 come, the baby boomers can collect their pension,CPF or sell their house to the new wave of FT to turn to Singaporean. Problems solve for the next 10 to 20n years. IF not from the netcitizen- they will continue to growth until 6.5 million in 2020. that;s their plan. Now people complaining , slow down a bit and once election over, they will continue. So, HDB will never dropped their price because, they can collect more money from the new Singaporean or young Singaporean and once the old Singaporean sell their old mature estate house, they can fetch a good price and got money to retire. So, Using property to fund the immediate 10 to 20 years pension needs of the old Singaporean! Who is going to pay for it? Young Singaporean or FT who had converted to Singaporean and buying HDB. Thats is it. I hope my children is not gong to pay for it. We need just another crisis to test the resolve of new Singaporean and see how HDB is going to keep rising price. Look at the COE, if not from the change in formula COE cannot going for about 50K. the agent already said last month it will go up!. PAP solution is using money as the best way to solve problems. Market forces with them controlling the supply. Pls I dont pay millions to them to tell me that I need to pay 50K for COE or price is Ok in housing. Now if you vote for them in next election. they will do something to the HDB. Once you sell your house, they lock up the profits and you can only use it if the minimum sum and medisave are topped up to the ever uprising targets. I suspect it will hit 200k and 50K in 10 years time respectively. After election is the payback time. What happen to our CPF----no eyes to see

Calvin Brock said...

Since then I've been addicted to vintage Chanel and so I've done some research on where to best buy online and thought I'd share with you guys what I've found. A lot of these sites do sell other designer brands but since I'm mainly interested in Chanel, that's where I focused on. www. http://www.lovedagainluxuries.com/

rocky case said...

Stephen Stapinski

Really your blog is very interesting.... it contains great and unique information. I enjoyed to visiting your blog. It's just amazing.... Thanks very much for the share.