Sunday, April 11, 2010

Secondary School Teacher turns property speculator.

Yesterday's Straits Times carried this story in the My Money section about how a secordary school teacher ended up with 3 investment properties (see story below). He sold his freehold terrace house (fully paid?) in April 2009 for $965K, used the money to buy a terrace house for $1.43M and a penthouse for $1.18M. In Jan this year, he bought another terrace house for $1.14M. His investments are sitting on nice capital gains and he's getting good rental yield. He did well...in fact his gains in these investments have probably surpassed what he earned as a teacher for the past 15 years.

What the teacher did is no different from what hedge fund managers do, REITs do and shipping tycoons do. The basic strategy is to borrow cheaply to buy higher yielding but riskier assets for both capital gains and recurring income. A hedge fund manager may leverage what investors give him by borrowing cheaply in Japan or US where interest rates have hit the floor then put the money in emerging markets e.g. Brazilian stocks or real estate. Its a no-brainer but they get paid millions when they make double digit returns from this strategy. A REITs manager specialising in Indonesia commercial property that yield 12% can borrow money at 4% - so he goes out to borrow at 4% then use this money to buy Indonesian shopping centers and earns a net of 8%. See making money is not so difficult right? ....In fact it looks so easy it makes a morkery of hard work, instead of teaching his students maths and science, the teacher should be teaching Robert Kiyosaki's Guide to Financial Freedom.....why not?

In 2001, I was in California for a business trip. Unable to sleep due to jet lag, I decided to watch a bit of TV. Late night TV in Calfornia was mostly advertising - infomercials. A number of these infomercials were about financial freedom through real estate investing - buy the DVDs (for USD$100?) to learn about the secret of real estate investing and make millions. The secret strategy in those expensive DVDs is probably no different from what our secondary school teacher did in Singapore - borrow cheaply to buy then rent out.....become a millionaire when you sell later at a higher price. For the next 5 years (2001-2005), this strategy created hundreds of thousands of millionaires when the US had the biggest housing boom in its history. The problem with simple strategies is that almost everyone and anyone can do it ...when everyone does the same thing, that is when it goes wrong and the destructive force on the way down creates 10 times more paupers than the millionaires it created on the way up.

The surest way to make money....sell blue sky and hot air to the gullible:

Last year I wrote about investing during recessions[Link] - most of the time it pays to the contrarian and apply good strategies when nobody is interested in doing so. It is necessary and healthy to have some level of speculation in the markets. However, when everyone thinks they can become real estate tycoons, that is when it gets dangerous. Teachers should concentrate on teaching, engineers should concentrate on building new gadgets and doctors should concentrate on their patients. When we have these wild swings in asset prices, the people that get rewarded the most are the people who can speculate well...not the people who produce useful goods and services for our society.

There are many pitfalls with the "borrow cheap to invest strategy" - interest rates can surge within a short time, asset prices can fall sharply and catch you off-guard, rental yields can fall killing your cashflow and so on. Instead of financial freedom, you can end up shackled by debts and financial troubles that keep you awake at night.
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[Full Story in the Straits Times : Link]
Q: What property do you own?
I got married in 1996 and bought my first home, a three-room HDB flat at Rochor Centre for $250,000. It made sense as it was very near my parents' flat and they helped to take care of my son.

I 'lost' $50,000 when I sold my flat in 2002 for $200,000. But I took the opportunity to upgrade and bought a one-storey, 2,000 sq ft freehold terrace house in Sembawang Hills estate at a low price of $820,000.

In April last year, I applied what I learnt about property investments and leveraging and sold my terrace house for $965,000 to free up cash.

I then bought three houses. One was a 21/2-storey, 2,900 sq ft corner terrace in Sembawang Hills estate, bought in April for $1.43 million. The current market value is about $2.2 million.
I bought, also last year, in September, a 2,662 sq ft penthouse unit at Nuovo in Yio Chu Kang for $1.18 million. It is being rented out at $4,600 monthly.

Finally, in January this year, I bought a three-storey, 3,200 sq ft terrace house at Century Woods in Marsiling for $1.14 million. It is next to the Singapore American School and should fetch a rental of at least $5,500 when construction is completed.

I made sure that my home loans are on fixed rates and my investment properties must be able to attract tenants easily, to generate a positive cash flow. This simply means that the rental income that I get is more than enough to pay the bank loan so there is sufficient buffer.

110 comments:

Anonymous said...

I totally agree that when people start speculating on property and stock etc. and make millions, they will be hit hard sooner or later.

Kenneth said...

What people should never do is feed a bubble. The larger it grows, the greater the aftershock it is going to leave behind when it pops.

Unfortunately, the 'property' bubble (the use of inverted commas as the idea of HDB flats as an asset is dubious at best)has been growing of late. Who knows what would happen when it finally bursts?

Anonymous said...

There may be many like the school teacher. That's why the property, stock and lately the COE bubble are very good for them.

That's why whether there is recession, inflation, bubble or what not, there are people who suffer but a lot more become rich and richer.

That's partly why PAP has at least 60% support all the time. And of course no different this time.

skeptic said...

well we should congratulate him for taking the initiative early. The suckers are the ones who do it too late.

But just because he succeeds doesn't mean anyone can and I caution people to not just look at the success stories but the horror stories too.

The problem with any investment technique is that you only hear the successes and not the failures due to survivorship bias.

Anonymous said...

There's also publication bias.
ie Straits Times is more interested featuring success stories than investment failures.

Singapore Short Stories said...

Property is one of the ways people hope to get rich via.

Anonymous said...

Property speculation is the only way to be rich fast. Actually ordinary folks can try lah, instead of whining and complaining money no enough. Singapore under PAP provide you the chance, if you got the guts and luck.

Do it right lah, of course. Do it wrong it means bankruptcy.

jamesneo said...

He at least make sure that it is fixed interest rate but there are two pitfalls that will kill him if the bubble burst. The banks will ask him to top the the difference between the decrease in value and original value by cash. Secondly, rentals will collapse and he will have to sell of his houses with great debt if did not have spare cash. As an investment strategy he fails never put everything into one basket.

Anonymous said...

"Secondly, rentals will collapse and he will have to sell of his houses with great debt if did not have spare cash. As an investment strategy he fails never put everything into one basket."

if enough people speculate, ie buy houses with no intention of living in them, rentals will probably collapse due to the glut of supply. by that time if his rentals are not enough to cover the monthly payments, it's gg for him...

jamesneo said...

Hi lucky can i ask you if you know if for bank loans, when your house depreciate in value tremendously is there a specific clause they can ask you to immediately to top up the difference in cash. If you are unable will they repossess your flat?

Anonymous said...

I think it is better to watch yan can cook than this fellow,just cannot stand this kind of accent. But the former taught me how to cook at least.

LuckySingaporean said...

Jamesneo,

Yes, there is clause in by housing loan. When the debt is higher than the valuation of the home, there is a negative equity situation. The bank has the right to ask for a top up to restore it to a certain level. I've never heard of anyone being hit by this clause probably because there is a 20% downpayment which means property prices have to go down by 20% for your equity to become negative. For this to happen you have to buy near the top and the drop has to be sharp. I believe some loans were negative equity in 1998 when the Asian Crisis hit. But I don't remember local banks taking action - as long as you service your loan, you are okay.

Many people did get hit in Hong Kong during Asian Crisis. Over night they were required to pay $100K or $200K to the bank to prevent foreclosure.

Anonymous said...

Unlikely property can drop by 20% or more drastically.

Because gahmen is the biggest player in the property market and almost the sole owner of all available land here. With public housing and land sale, they control the base price from which all other property take reference. They can hold or make it go higher.

Unless of course majority of Singaporeans want to emigrate and not many foreign talents want come also. You say possible or not?

Anonymous said...

"they control the base price from which all other property take reference. They can hold or make it go higher."

precisely, that's why GMS, and those who subscribe to his nonsense, is an idiot.

Anonymous said...

you might be holding something that has good paper value , but when the bubble bursts, what happens to that paper value ?

Cash in hand is still the best, the bubble will burst soon.....

And we imagine many people who are on cloud nine will come crashing hard onto the ground....

Anonymous said...

Problem with cash is inflation, especially in the past 3 years. So it is still better to diversify according to one's risk aversion.

Anonymous said...

Teachers should concentrate on teaching, engineers should concentrate on building new gadgets and doctors should concentrate on their patients.

How Utopian. I wonder what should bankers do, lend money?

Anonymous said...

Yes go for the jugular and enjoy the exhilaration while they last, he could diversify his speculative activities to the casinos to further enhance his enjoyment. To do big things, he must think, hope big becos opportunities cannot be hoarded once gone it is usually irretrievable. Way to go!

Anonymous said...

The Shit Times is gahmen propaganda loudspeaker. That article about the teacher's success in property investmnt is meant to brainwash the mass that high property price is good and that it should go higher .

Looks like that shit times article is telling u that Hse prices in Sg will rise even higher (via fake market demand)

and if u expect the so called educated ppl to refrain from speculating property, just forget it! Greed rules in ppl's mind and the gahmen knows how to play the psychological game

Onlooker said...

It's not speculation per se.
it is the total lack of control in the garment policies.

The MSM are doing the speculation angle because the ministry involved are not able to do it job properly.

Anyway, it prove the ineptitude and complacency that is entrenched in the PAP garment.

jamesneo said...

"they control the base price from which all other property take reference. They can hold or make it go higher."

"precisely, that's why GMS, and those who subscribe to his nonsense, is an idiot."

Hi lucky can you tell this guy the drop in price in 96 and the collapse of the world economy in 5-10 yrs time if lucky and 3-5 yrs if not with a possibility of reverting back to the gold standard.

Anonymous said...

todays news reported japan is on the brink of bankruptcy and why? they were stupid to allow their property market to sink beyond redemption or for too prolong a period in the early 90s. since then, they have never recovered.

if our garmen will to be that foolish not to defend(which it can be done) the property market or the people's assets from sinking or plunging, the social and economic carnage will be as devastating.

98% are homeowners don't pray pray.better a healthy property market is far better than an unhealthy one. the former result in less suicides than the latter.

remember, ppl dont commit suicide because they haven't commit to a property. ppl can commit suicide because they are burdened by irrecoverable debts!!!

Anonymous said...

btw, i have been singing this tune for years so, let the blood be in the hands of those in power.

Anonymous said...

The secret to success in all these strategy to richness are:

1. Timming
2. Leverage conservatively and well within your means.

Best time to pick up assets is during a recession or when everyone is bearish. Worst time is when everyone is bullish.

Leverage by asking yourself this: Can u ride out the worst case scenario. If u borrow only 50% of the value of the asset, u have a better chance than borrowing 90%. Of course your return will be less.

Anonymous said...

I like the commercials, btw how is that janitor now post-housing crisis?

Anonymous said...

It's just the Greater Fool Theory at work. Some speculation is needed, but the game is not over yet. When it will end is anybody's guess, probably next year? and it will be ugly. There is normally a rebound after a sudden dip, followed by a slow prolonged drop, lower than the previous low.

Goh Meng Seng said...

Property prices, contrary to people's perception, do not always go up. Anyone who has gone through the boom and bust of 1997 to 2003 would have known this very well.

This is the fundamental reason why PAP's plan of asking people to "monetize" their HDB flats for retirement financing is flawed. They are assuming that property prices will always go up.

We are in for another roller coaster ride.

Goh Meng Seng

Anonymous said...

i dont think the garbagemen intend to keep pushing up property prices especially when the fundamentals do not permit it. but they are also not stupid to keep prices low so more teachers(which also implies that many of our average locals can easily afford more than one home) can own multiple homes which, in the long term, isn't good for land scarce sg. so home prices too low will have a destablising effect on the general economy. that said, higher home rices,on the other hand, are more beneficial than lower prices - think indirect form of taxation on the wealthier or elites.

the revenues generated from reasonably higher property prices can then be "given back" to the less able what the able has "taken from them".

probably, that may offers a happier ending for MOST people.

Anonymous said...

case in point. one pastor was reported to have owned more than 10 units in the same condo.

he managed that haul when home prices were dirt cheap!(considering that a pastor can become overnight MULTI-millionaire at the expense of our economy is quite disturbing)

so low prices actually benefit the rich or able more than the poor or less able.

Anonymous said...

Could it be that some wealthy pastors are buying up properties for his followers or to sell to them at 'subsidized' prices ??

Anonymous said...

Could it be that some wealthy pastors are buying up properties for his followers or to sell to them at 'subsidized' prices ??

Kaffein said...

Many people tend to follow the leader and jump into the market without realising the pitfalls and risks. Perhaps the fundamental word is GREED - trying to make a quick buck. Whereas the wiser ones look ahead, jump at the right opportunity and know how to hold and sell at the opportune time, and making most of the opportunity given. Alas many don't.

Because of this article, many people will start speculating again and begin to borrw, and ultimately feeding the already bursting bubble. Haven't we learnt from the recent US properties crash just a year ago? People's dream got dashed overnight.

My take:
If this article has already appeared in the local newspaper, I'm sure a large part of the pie has already been eaten. Whatever is left are for you folks to fight for the crumbs. Think again, people.

Kaffein

Anonymous said...

Could it be that some wealthy pastors are buying up properties for his followers or to sell to them at 'subsidized' prices ??

LOL

Anonymous said...

please sell me at "subsidized" price or ...at cost. LOL

Anonymous said...

i wish i can buy AT COST so i got so much money left over and buy properites in batam or johore or anywhere else where propety is cheap cheap LOLOLOL

vote for GMS please!!LOL

Anonymous said...

I started living away from my parents when I got married and moved into Safti Hilton. Costed me less than sgd 100 a month. Then moved into Bt Batok when my 1st child arrived. and finally into an E-flat now with 3 kids. My mortgage repayment is ~sgd300+ pm and less than 10% of my salary. While I'm still struggling, I think it is manageable dispite driving a Vios and feeding 3 "baracuddas". Although I also like to be rich like the teacher, I think we are doing a disfavour to the younger generations by over leveraging ourselves in real estate. We inadvertently help drive up home prices. Of course, it helps if the gov regulate incoming demand from FTs and build more flats immediately. Only then can those born in Singapore exercise their birth right to this land. The basic right to have a roof over their head. Or is it every man for himself? As for me, I chose to live in a HDB flat and probably die here. dt

Anonymous said...

He did not exactly enter the market that early and did not make that much from his previous investments. He bought all 3 properties recently for $3.75 million during the boom isn't it? One thing is clear - teachers are paid very well and the most active speculators in the property market. To be able to hold 3 properties, each more than $1 million bought at the peak is not easy for ordinary people. A bank is not going to loan $3 million to anyone unless he has very strong earning power.

Anonymous said...

I know of an indian odd job laborer who bought his flat(Executive HDB) direct from HDB rather cheap. About five years later, he sold his flat for more than half a million dollar and downgraded with his family. I understand that the proceed from the sale reaped a few hundred thousands for him.

You know what he did with the money? The smart chap bought a landed home in johore and rented it out.

If we don't want our wealth to take flight somewhere else(same principle as having our own casino), the gahmen better be quick to lock away capital gain from the resale proceed for future uses less they take the gain elsewhere or foolishly waste it through frivolous spending and later became a liability to the country.

Anonymous said...

12/4/10 15:52

it looks like he leveraged on his terrace house(assuming that that house was fully paid for).

with the proceed, he could easily make down payment for the three properties.

Anonymous said...

"To be able to hold 3 properties, each more than $1 million bought at the peak is not easy for ordinary people."

He didn't buy at peak. If he were to sell his properties in today's market, he will be more than a million dollar richer.

"I then bought three houses. One was a 21/2-storey, 2,900 sq ft corner terrace in Sembawang Hills estate, bought in April for $1.43 million. The current market value is about $2.2 million."

Anonymous said...

Not everyone benefits from buy low sell high... well. you know a property is not a fire and forget asset. You need to pay $$$ for taxes, maintenance, among many things and modertae price elvation is in fact just inflation compensation.

People get burnt and so the system can gets going lah... else everyone smart alecks sure collapse.

Winner takes all. For me I just look.

Anonymous said...

Mr Lucky

What's the big deal about borrowing a couple of millions?

Check this out.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_debt

Anonymous said...

The fact that a typical middle class can afford to own three pte properties, it only reinforces that properties here must be very affordable.

Anonymous said...

To Anon, while he did not say he bought at high prices, we can guess from the timing of his purchases.

He said he bought his 3 properties AFTER he sold his terrace house in "April last year" which means he bought his 3 properties in the short span of second half of 2009 or early 2010 where prices are already very high and peakish. In short, he is chasing the market during the boom and did NOT make millions from properties previously at the bottom. Anyway, if his properties are not leveraged, I think IRAS will start knocking on his door. A teacher buying properties up to $3.8 million with substantial debt within a few months? Did he have a windfall? Try going to a bank to borrow $3 million. It's not easy.

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