Wednesday, May 12, 2010

The Singapore Bubble?




Financial and property bubbles are obvious on hindsight. When things are going up most people will think the rise is sustainable and many will even invent reasons to explain why it is sustainable. A few years, I went to Vegas for a short tour. I was completely overwhelmed by the extravagance of the place - the concentration of magnificient buildings, entertainment etc. From Vegas, I booked a day tour that took me Hoover Dam and the Grand Canyon. The tour guide told us how Vegas had become the fastest growing city in the US and the real estate in the area can only go up because the number of people in the city expanded every year due to the building of 'mega-casinos' which created jobs. Jobs bring people to the city...mega-casinos were highly profitable because the number of visitors to Vegas was expanding at rate that would filled the mega-casinos faster than they can build them. The guide was right because 3 years later the real estate in Vegas were up something like 80% - thanks to Greenspan's zero interest rate policies. At the height of the real estate boom in 2007, all the economic fundamentals looked like they can't go wrong. However, within 3 months, the boom turned to bust[Link].

I'm not too sure if counting the number of cranes seen from the Singapore Flyer is a good indication that we are in a bubble, but the video is a good reminder that we all the factors holding up prices such as liberal immigration policies, low interest rates and global economic growth can change abruptly.

42 comments:

skeptic said...

I love Vegas because of the shows (I lost count at the number of circ du solei shows) and the all you can eat buffet! Not really into gambling though.

My favourite trick is to go to the nickel slots and play very slowly. Why? They will try to pile you up with free drinks because alcohol keeps you uninhibited. If you know how to control your gambling slowly, you can get more free alcohol than the money you put in.

Another thing I like to do is to try the martingale betting technique at the roulette wheel that sacrifice a higher pay-off for a higher chance of winning.

There is a small chance you would lose all your money but a high chance you would gain something so I limit my gambling to at most $100 a day.

TokyoSIngaporean said...

The only thing I love about Singapore is its food. It has the best variety, taste and price in the world. Singapore is also efficient where necessary paper work are concerned. Being a small island, it is much easier to move from point A to point B. But therein lies the pseudo aspect of its efficiency: its size. A small island definitely easier to get around. And a small island makes you reach boredom sooner than you imagine. When I was working in Singapore, I got so bored I had to go to Geylandg to seek fun. That's how boring it was. I fucked so many malaysian, thai and chinese gals that I lost count. At least, where penetrative sex is concerned, Singapore is easy but expensive. I once remembered seeing a middle-aged Singaporean Chinese guy who I'm told comes in every week day after lunch to these Geylang brothels as he was extremely bored to death in this tiny island. Here in Tokyo, sex is more like a fetish. But you practically have a hell of a time to get a brotherl here as penetrative sex is illegal. If you work in Tokyo, you'd know why I use the term "penetrative". At least, pornography is everywhere here in Tokyo. And it's nice to return from a hard day's work and drop in to 7/11 and get a drink and a japanese porn magazine to go. This is something I can't do in Singapore. I can't go to a strip club in Singapore because there aren't any. We're lucky we're close to Thailand. I can imagine how much harder it is for women to get sex. The chances are virtually zero for a shy lady. At least a shy Singaporean man could learn about sex in Geylang. I'm not exactly big on gambling. Playing in the back alleys in Geylang once upon a time, got my $100 burned in 2 mins. And I never looked back to it since. Hey skeptic, are there any similar entertainment of the like I'm talking in Vegas?

Anonymous said...

But Vegas is just one of the cities in the US. And growth is almost solely fueled by casinos and entertainment in the midst of a desert. The mayor of Vegas is just one of the many mayors in the US.

But Singapore is not only a city but also a country surrounded by water and with a deep water port. There is no mayor but a strong, solid PAP govt that owns almost every inch of land in it. And the economy is not just powered by casinos. It is a trading, shipping, banking and financial centre and attracted all the hot money taking flight from SE Asia (Indonesia) and even Europe, US and China. The govt controls 80% of housing and other property prices.

Therein lies the great difference between Vegas and Singapore.

So not to worry about Singapore.
Unless foreign "talents" and money don't want to come anymore. This is most unlikely as these will go to areas where there is political stability and open arms welcome. And it is Singapore!

And of course some will suffer as a result of such a situation but these are kept well under control, less than 33% of them only.

Anonymous said...

lucky, which do you think is a safe haven for wealth then, in view of pending bubble-pop?

Anonymous said...

Singapore is still the safe haven for wealth.

If you find it boring, don't live here but just park your money here.

SG Girl Next Door said...

I, too went to Vegas a few years ago. Didn't gamble at all but booked a day trip to Bryce Canyon. Beautiful scenery. Hopping from one hotel to another to look at their decos were enjoyable. You could get some good purchases at some of the retail stores having promotion too.

Yes the buffets at the hotels were great. US$9.90 eat-all-you-can and the varieties of food were great too!

On my night of departure, I met a PRC girl. Chatted with her and found out that due to last minute changes, her pal couldn't go with her. So she went alone to Vegas. Knowing little English, she doesn't know how to book tours and ended up gambling away. All her 2 years savings (working at her uncle's restaruant in New York)were gambled away. She left only enough to buy an air ticket back to New York.

Anonymous said...

1. With so much cheap liquidity this property market still has some way to go.
2. So long as LKY is around, I don't think he will allow the bubble to be picked. He still thinks that Singapore property prices are cheap compared to HK.
3. Some sector of the property market like freehold landed ones are just hitting the high they reached in 1996. This market still has a long way to go.
4. Eventually the downturn will come. Question is when - 3 years, 5 years 10 years ?

Anonymous said...

LKY said PAP will still win the next 2 elections. Most likely another 10 more years of bubble. After that, if there is a crash, the opposition can take over and handle it. By then, everything, including reserves, habis(finished)

Anonymous said...

Mr Skeptic

for commoners like you, cheap alcohol is value for money.
For wannabes like the towkay dude $500 it's the dinners.
For Lucky, sipping Kristal at Tiananmen is value for money.
Different leagues kiddo.

Anonymous said...

Watch the whole video and see what the ang mo says at the end LOL. He his own agenda, which is to sell his business and service.

Anonymous said...

Tokyo Singporean, I bet you fuck your mother too. Care to share the experience? LOL.

Anonymous said...

Vegas is part of the US.US sink, so does Vegas. Sinkapore is part of what? China?

Please.

No comparison lah.

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...

tokyo singaporean should be well versed with...mother tongue.very apt topic for the horny guy. LOL

Anonymous said...

Btw, Lucky is a supporter of GMS. What do you guys think of his agenda huh?

Anonymous said...

While it's true Singapore's debt to GDP ratio is high, this is very misleading. Singapore’s actual debt is a small fraction of that– the government routinely runs a budget surplus and doesn’t have the terminal debt addiction that other developed nations are afflicted with.

The reason Singapore’s debt ratio is so overstated is because of the way that the IMF conducts its accounting:

With just a thousand dollars or a million dollars, people with spare cash simply hold it in a bank account. Large institutions with hundreds of billions of dollars, however, need safe, highly liquid debt markets to hold cash for the short-term.

Thus, in order to attract institutional capital flows, Singapore runs a high volume, robust sovereign debt market. It has to, otherwise institutional investors wouldn’t take it seriously as a global financial center.

Unlike US treasuries which are consumed and reissued in a dangerous and unsustainable ponzi scheme, Singapore’s bonds are investment securities that facilitate liquidity in the secondary market. Because of IMF accounting rules, however, these bonds count ‘against’ Singapore and are included in the country’s debt.

I will advise those taking this guy's seminar to be wary. Otherwise wealth will indeed be transferred out of their pocket to this charlatan's!

Anonymous said...

HAHAHAHAHA HAHAHAHAHA

Anonymous said...

Lucky,

Did you hear what rubbish that angmoh says?

Singapore Debt to GDP is 117%, higher than Greede and US.

And After checking the CIA info(link provided below), it seems that he is right.

Can you pls enlighten me!



https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2186rank.html#top

Anonymous said...

Dubai is not the same as Singapore. In Dubai,every Tom, Dick and Harry White can get easy credit to buy condos and sports car. Maybe the Prophet Lucky can look into his balls (crystal ones) and tell his readers where to park and invest their excess funds !

Anonymous said...

it's like comparing pricks. if you measure a singaporean prick against a negro prick and you say...is the same and the chicks or prostitutes will laff their head off.

Anonymous said...

LOL

Curiosity said...

Once the old man return to the Lord,the bubble will burst.Whatever property,savings,stocks,shares will go along with him.

Anonymous said...

anon 11:34

now you understand why the old man wiselee said..you don't tell the big lunjiao how to fcuk or show off to big lunjiao what your small lumjiao can do. you just keep quiet and wait for the big lunjiao to talk first before you open your mouth.

wise indeed. lol

Anonymous said...

The differences between Singapore's debt and western country is that the sovereign counter party here is her citizen, in the form of CPF force savings.

SG government can get away with it easily by opening her printing press which she did and accuse her citizen not saving enuf.

Or she can jack up 99 years property that sucks dry whatever money her citizen has.

Or she can make health care a dracula that even if u are prudent, your 80 years grandfather can bankrupt you.

Those western countries faces Big Banks, IMF, world bank or even sovereign entity. They HAVE TO PAY.

FUCK PAP.

Anonymous said...

maybe the father small the son big leh? HA HA HA HA

aiyah, shameless singaporans always think their there very big one so boast lor.

one day, bubble(condom) burst not because singaporean there big big but because the pros laugh while sucking and teeth tear the rubber then BUBBLE BURST looor. HA HA HA HA HA

Fievel said...

Well I heard an entirely unsubstantiated rumour from a colleague that Lee Junior will be stepping down soon due to health reasons.

Singapore has hope man!

Anonymous said...

Tokyo Singaporean, what's your mother tongue like? Care to share?

TokockSingaporean said...

The only thing I love about Singapore is Sex in geyland. It has the best variety, taste and price in the world. Singapore sex service is also efficient where necessary hourly hotels are concerned. Being a small prick myself, it is much easier to move from point A to point B. But therein lies the pseudo aspect of its efficiency: my small dick. A small dick definitely easier to get in and out. And a small dick like mine makes you reach orgasm sooner than you imagine. When I was fucking around in Singapore, I got so bored I had to go to Geyland to seek more fun because Singaporean women's twats are just too loose. That's how boring it was. I had to fuck so many malaysian, thai and chinese gals that I lost count. At least, where penetrative sex is concerned, Singapore is cheap,easy but expensive only when my mom restrict my allowance sometimes. I once remembered my dad who I'm told comes in every week day after lunch to these Geylang brothels as he was extremely bored to death because my mom never service him well. Here in Tokyo, sex is more like a fetish. But you practically have a hell of a time to get a brotherl here as penetrative sex is illegal considering how small my dick is. If you work in Tokyo, you'd know why I use the term "penetrative". At least, pornography is everywhere here in Tokyo and I am a part time underrated porn actor too for extra cash. And it's nice to return from a hard day's work and drop in to 7/11 and get a drink and a japanese porn magazine to wank off. This is something I can't do in Singapore because my mom will be watching me all the time. I don't need to go to a strip club in Singapore because my family members love to strip. We're lucky we're close to each other. I can imagine how much harder it is for an old lady to get sex. The chances are virtually zero for an old lady. At least a shy Singaporean man like myself could learn about sex with my old lady at home. I'm not exactly big on masturbation though.Once, playing my small dick in the back alleys in Geylang got my $100 burned in 2 mins by a gay. And I never looked back to it since. Hey skeptic, are there any similar entertainment of the like I'm talking in Vegas?

Anonymous said...

hey singaorean,i am curious. have you been raided by plain clothes police when you are at down town fukking prostitutes? heard they are very turned on during this period. how do you keep your radar and scanner in preened condition? how do these people, on duty, surrounded by hot meat keep their radar and scanner in order?

any off duty experiences care to share since you are so proud of your appetite for the seedy?

Anonymous said...

13/5/10 07:51

u must b e vedee horny hor. so early morning tell us steamy stories on luckys bulge he he he

Anonymous said...

Another ang moh say again? C'mon, don't you have any originality?

Nabs said...

It's always good to be aware, but I can't help but feel that he is a bit bias.A personal agenda perhaps?

Even though our debt to GDP ratio is 117%, most of it stems from internal debt, which is the form of government bonds and CPF payouts. It's unlike countries that are in trouble now ie Greece where most debts are from external sources where interest rates alone can kill them.

Having said that, I agree with him that we are entering unprecedented times, and I will not be too optimistic about our recent positive GDP numbers cos we are a very export reliant country. If the bubble in China and our neighboring countries pop, we are in for a ride. Plus,most of our recent GDP growth is on the supply side ie. immigration and the massive govt stimulus.

Anonymous said...

Tokyo Singaporean, what's your mother tongue like? Care to share?

($)~($) said...

@ Fievel,
that is one hell of a rumour i have been hoping to hear.
keeping my fingers X it's true.

this can only mean the bubble will burst for the father and son,
...and all the PAP running dogs.

let's hope the father and son depart for the grave together to save on funeral expenses.

ps: time to release the Bubbles from my bottle of vintage champagne

Anonymous said...

TokyoSingaporwan is busy with mother's tongue and unable to reply

Anonymous said...

Lucky,
our gov is using reserve and state and tax money to hedge against the bubble. Which is using our tax-money to prevent the bubble burst by throwing money, and instead do the opposite. Instead of letting the fundamental correct in the free market, the gov interfere by injecting money into the market and in due cause make the property and financial become higher and more expensive...

take note at how those clowns handle the financial crisis. Instead property and FI going down, the gov throw money around to boost those markets , and pass the burden to the layman...

Such a evil gov... and still ppl vote for them..

Anonymous said...

tokyosingaporean is in geyland learning mother tongue lah lol

jamesneo said...

The big danger is if the government start become addicted to debt from now on.We have been having 2-3 years of deficit not surplus due to the government stimulus. The key is if we can get back to surplus soon. If another storm occurs which surely will occur with the debt crisis and money printing threatening to lead to a Euro that might become parity with US. This is extremely bad for Singapore as the EU are one of our biggest trade partners where our exports go to. Moreover, with the huge devaluing in the Euro and possibly the pound in 2-3 years latest, our tourist industry will also get hit badly. Hence, we need to observe clearly if the pap can get back into surplus budget soon, if the deficit spending continue for 5 more years or have to print more money to stimulate any crisis, then the bubble will crack badly not only in property but in many things.

Anonymous said...

toykosingaporean, can i use your mother tongue?

Anonymous said...

To ($)~($)

No ideas about the speculation/rumours.

Anyway, don't pop your champagne yet. IMHO, I think it's fishy why the daughter/sister of the dad/son so bo liao to pen so many "Sumiko Tan" type of articles for the MSM?

My guess is, the old man has run out of choices. 1st choice is sick, 2nd choice kenna booted-out of previous directorship with gossips/scandal and then quietly re-implanted into another directorship, 3rd choice yet to graduate from his scholarship studies (after kicking a big fuss during NS). Old man don't like female taking charge, but maybe no choice but to install his daughter as seat-warmer for the 3rd generation.

Don't quote me. Just speculating.

TokyoSingaporean said...

Everyday is mother's day for me,thank you.

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