Saturday, October 08, 2011

Unstable Employment and fall in fertility...

Recently, after I gave a talk to a group of university students on technology, a student walk up to me and asked if he took up a job in the company I worked, what is the length (how many years) is the employment contract. I told he there is no contract if people are hired, we prefer them to stay forever until they choose retire because we are working with  high tech stuff that require extensive and continuous training. Unfortunately, the company where I work is fast becoming a rarity in its hiring policies.  I've interviewed many young people in the past few years and became quite familiar with what employment is like for engineers and IT professionals in Singapore today. It is easy to find someone who had 4 different  jobs in 6 years. One applicant came with a pile of certification and list training courses he attended, he told me he paid for every one of those because the short term nature of employment means that employers are reluctant to spend too much on training. Some companies hire people for the duration of one project and retrench them when the project is over. Increasing numbers are hired in temp jobs lasting a few months as employers are unwilling to commit to hiring full time.

While this phenomena is something that has occurred world wide, it is has become far worse in Singapore because having a large foreign influx means there is always a ready pool manpower available and employers do not hold on to workers during the bad times because they don't have to fear that they will have difficulty hiring during the good times. In good times, they have manpower from the foreign influx so they don't have to hire older workers creating a structural unemployment problem in Singapore.

This rising phenomena of "unstable" employment has been linked to falls in fertility (Job Insecurity and the Timing of Parenthood). So far all govt measures have failed to improve fertility and a few of the measures fail by design. Take the example of financial incentives in the form of tax rebates that has to be claimed within a limited time frame. This is clearly aimed at higher income individuals who need little financial assistance in the first place - how was it suppose to improve fertility rate by targeting certain segments of the population instead of all families? Here the govt mixes its social engineering goals with the measures to improve fertility.  In the 80s, they wanted to implement the graduate parents scheme providing incentives only to graduate mothers to have more children. It is no surprise they can't make a dent on the low fertility problem because they are boxed in by one man's "hard truth" belief that graduate parents have smarter children.  There is little wonder why we have made no progress to improve fertility rates in Singapore.

Today, the govt uses the low fertility as a justification for the large foreign influx.  The large foreign influx results in increased competition for jobs and housing as well as rise in structural unemployment. It puts Singaporeans in  a vicious cycle of lower fertility and increased foreign influx. There is little doubt if things continue, Singaporeans will be a minority in their own country. It would be fine if we are not a nation with little aspiration to become one. If Singapore is just an economy where people are free to come and go based on where they can find the best opportunities, we go back to what we were before independence when we were a trading post somewhere in the British Empire.  Today we have Singaporeans who are the 3rd or 4th generation here. There is something worth protecting for the young men who serve their NS - that something is eroded away with each passing year....

47 comments:

Anonymous said...

You a right. The vicious cycle of low birth rates and foreign influx is a failure of our government to take care of it's people. No wonder our young are asking what is the point of serving NS. Many aspirations are destroyed as the foreigners muscle their way into every aspect of our lives.

Anonymous said...

Yet it is strange that in all countries with scarce resources, poverty and high unemployment, birthrate are still exploding. Look at places like Phillipines, Indonesia, Somalia and the Middle East.

asingaporeanson said...

What we failed is to build up a culture of companies treating employees as family.

You don't sack a family member and get another replacement. You support and correct them till the family function as a unit.

Of course, it requites loyalty from the employee side. It takes two hands to clap. At the moment, nobody is interested in clapping, just slapping.

Kojakbt said...

The old man cleverly put the blame on our low fertility to justify his FT influx policy, which actually helps to protract PAP's rule...

Ever wonder why PAP is willing to carve out Pioneer SMC (ie, Jurong West area) from the old West Coast GRC? Many foreigners turned new citizens live there. It's no wonder NSP Steve Chia performed badly. His votes dropped from 2006 to 2011 GE even though overall votes for oppo increased from 33% to 40%:

39.63% at Chua Chu Kang SMC (2006)
39.27% at Pioneer SMC (2011)

I've got no problem welcoming new citizens who are committed to Singapore 100%. However, I would start questioning their commitments when say, only the husband turns Singapore citizen but the wife happily remains as PR...

Veritas said...

Such things happened in history already. Our predatory system must expand in such way for it to self-perpetuate.

In Roman republic, the elite must forever expand because their villa and farms needed fresh supply of slave.

The slavery in turn bankrupt the free man by driving grain price low and because citizen farm are not able compete because free man need to serve many years in the army.

Loong can never change the system. Historically, the top 1% disdain the people until they sense revolution is coming.

Today, after the Occupy Wall Street Movement, even those arrogant USA elite like Newt Gringrich sound mellowed.

We can only redeem ourselves by organizing ourselves and start a citizen movement to take down those elite.

Anonymous said...

Yet it is strange that in all countries with scarce resources, poverty and high unemployment, birthrate are still exploding. Look at places like Phillipines, Indonesia, Somalia and the Middle East. - Anonymous 8/10/11 10:57




Say what? Phillipines, Indonesia, and Middle East are countries with scarce resources? HAHAHAHAHA!!!

Amused said...

Unstable employment? Not in the civil service! (or the ex-Ministers.)

Anonymous said...

I have spoken to a couple of PRC new citizens, it seems that they are not going to stay here when the going gets tough. I am talking about even if both husband and wife become citizen with teenagers in tow. They are sending back money to china to build their house,for investment and so on.

When things sour here, they will uproot and go back. They say they can always use social passes. Is it possible ? I don't know.

But u can see how much commitment they have to little red dot, more like an ATM machine ?

--------------------------------------

Recent news about pinoy maid could apply for PR in Hong kong if they meet the criteria - work there for 7 years. This has cause Hong Kongers' much concern and objections, they are worried about the impact on their healthcare, education,public transport, housing prices, low wage workers, overcrowding and so on.

Why all these negatives are not looked into here ? Still trying to use low FTR as an excuse !

Shame shame !

Kojakbt said...

>> I am talking about even if both husband and wife become citizen with teenagers in tow. They are sending back money to china to build their house,for investment and so on.

Yes, many of them wouldn't want their sons to serve NS. Before their sons reach 18, they would leave Singapore. I personally know a couple of FT families did that... 1 family emigrate to Australia and another to NZ before their eldest sons reach 18.

>> When things sour here, they will uproot and go back. They say they can always use social passes. Is it possible ? I don't know.

Yes, for PRCs, I know this is possible. Go ask any of your PRC friends or colleagues who have become Singaporeans. They may have surrendered their PRC passports to the Chinese embassy here but all of them have retained their "hukou" (ie, ICs). In China, the "hukou" and passport are not linked (probably because of the administration problems over a large population). To get back their PRC passports, they can always go back to their hometowns where their "hukou" reside and get a new one by declaring that they have lost their previous one. In fact, 1 PRC (new citizen) even told me that when he hits 50, he will sell off his HDB and get all his CPF out and returns back to China to retire.

>> But u can see how much commitment they have to little red dot, more like an ATM machine ?

Sometimes I feel Singapore is more like a prostitute, letting people screw...

Anonymous said...

Many local borned Singaporean thought that majority of the new citizens will stayed on and their former countries won't accept them back.

Let me share with you this incidence: my friend's wife is a former Canadian. She was granted Singapore citizenship due her marriage with my friend.

Due to Singapore's law, she need to renounce her Canadian's Citizenship and return her Passports.

However, when she return her passport to the Canadian Embassy
The staff there said that you can keep the passport and Canada will also wlecome you back. We don't follow the law of Singapore, and therefore there are no requirement for us to response. You are always a Canadian.

Anonymous said...

You have all misunderstood the old man. Social bloggers should have a onetoone talk with him. There under oath of secrecy, he will reveal the real motive behind his social engineering based policies. I believed its not really the hard truths he was telling those ST reporters, nor found in any of his volumous published books flooding bookstore.(MPH has now become SPH; Times = ST). Go ahead, ask his PPS for a discussion.

Anonymous said...

Agreed. Of course there is a strong link between unstable employment and fall in fertility.

Fall in fertility is easily addressed by getting more foreigners in, never mind if they are 2nd, 3rd or 4th rate talents, as long as they are the best available, we will take them.

And with the whole, wide world and big countries like China as our source of talent, where got supply problem?

The next important thing to ensure is that unstable employment for locals, overcrowding etc, should not become a political problem, and which it has not, as long as 60% of voters have stable employment and satisfied.

So with all these in place, there will be political stability and social peace, which is the primary objective of every government. All other things are secondary.

Me,Singaporean said...

A PRC colleague told us blatantly that he is here to "摘果子" (pick the fruits). We, Singaporeans toiled and built this nation to what it is today but our govt generously offer the fruits of our labour to FTs. WTF!

Anonymous said...

It just doesn't wash when PAP brought in FAR MORE foreigners than the number of Singaporean who would have been born if not for the degenerate scum LKY's 'STOP AT TWO', "sterilize ye poor" and 'graduate mothers' schemes. Clearly, they were bringing in ever more FTs for the quick ticket to boost GDP and inflate housing demand hence property prices.

PAP's measures to boost fertility rate are obviously engineered to PREVENT the proliferation of a certain racial group who typically happen to be poor and lowly educated. Hence 'graduate mother' scam and 'tax incentive'.

They want babies to serve as NS and economic slaves but they don't want those of a certain race.

Lye Khuen Way said...

Now I see more evidence of our so-called new citizens from PRC/India and Canada being able to claim back their citizenships as and when they decide life here is too much to bear !
So that was the "Hard Truth" that our smart=Aleck bureaucrats had not factored in.
I am not too surprised.
Wonder who is more daft afterall ?

Anonymous said...

Many foreigners including PRs living in Singapore treats Singapore as a ATM machine. The MIWs are aware of this and are not disturbed by it at all. The economic benefits to the government's coffers from their presence outweighs the adverse effect their large presence have on the quality of life of Singaporeans. Similarly many Singaporeans also feel the MIWs treats Singaporeans like ATM machines.

Anonymous said...

Please select from the Multiple Choice Question the correct answer A, B, C, D, E or a combination of A, B, C, D and E and hand in.

Uniquely in Singapore, what are possible type of jobs that belong to Singapore Citizens?

(A) Singapore Citizens have one and only one job, that is national service

(B) Singapore Citizens jobs are to protect the life of Permanent Residents and Foreigners,

(C) Singapore Citizens jobs are to protect the jobs for Permanent Residents and Foreigners,

(D) Singapore Citizens jobs are to protect the dependance of Permanent Residents and Foreigners,

(E) Singapore Citizens jobs are to protect the properties belonging to Permanent Residents and Foreigners,

Answer: A, B, C, D ,and E

Anonymous said...

It is an open secret that many foreigners on student pass work in Singapore as part-timers illegally and receive extremely low pay without any working pass.

These foreign students normally work for small companies.

Why these foreign students can continue to work illegally in Singapore for so long and yet no one seems to bother?

Anonymous said...

YOU GET WHAT YOU VOTED FOR

Anonymous said...

I am one of the members of that group for 2-3 years. My marriage plan was being delayed for 3 yrs.

As years passed, everything is getting more expensive and wage growth stagnant, my plan of having a child is postpone to a later date again and again.

Both of my parents will be 65 yrs old and will be retiring soon. When that day come, if inflation continue to outpace wage growth, I may not even afford a child. By then our million dollar ministers will again put the blame on me rather than their policies that widely benefit the rich (including 7% GST that take the money from the poor and middle group to subdise the enterprises).

Recently, in the channel 8news reported that rich employer does not mind employing expensive Singaporean as compared to a CHEAP FOREIGN TALENT. That employer gave the excuse that Singaporean does not want that kind of job they offer.

I would like to question that rich employer that given that the high property price, high price on food and services, how much does she pay a Singaporean?

To those million dollar MPs, It is you that created our problem. Please stop blaming Singaporeans and start working on our problems that you have created.

All those justification reported on the main stream media shows that our ministers are incompetent and ultra expensive.

I do not mind to give the opposition a try should the MPs and minister choose to sleep in their job.

Anonymous said...

"I do not mind to give the opposition a try should the MPs and minister choose to sleep in their job."
Anon 9/10/11 09:13

Unfortunately people like you are most probably only 40% of the total voters.

And this can be considered the worst case scenario for PAP in 46 years! And yet, with remaining 60% votes, PAP can still get more than 90% of seats.

Anonymous said...

//
The large foreign influx results in increased competition for jobs and housing as well as rise in structural unemployment. It puts Singaporeans in a vicious cycle of lower fertility and increased foreign influx.
//

What vicious cycle?
Even if Mrs Lucky Tan give birth to 1,000,000 babies tonight, could they start working tomorrow?

No. The hard truth is SG will still need 1,000,000 FTs over the next 5 years because the likes of LUCKY TANs sat on their collective butts and did nothing during GE2011.

On wait, lets make Holy Cow in charge of MOM! Endorsed by Lucky, cannot be wrong!

Vote Cow!
Vote PAP!

Anonymous said...

夏虫不可语冰。

To: 9/10/11 15:41

You are just like the insect living in the summer, cannot talk to you about ice. no matter how you will not understand.

Anonymous said...

By putting 6m people in this small island with no natural resources is asking for trouble. Once the food and water source is threatened, what will happen is this 6m will kill each other for survival. Look at the flooding around SEA, it is just getting worse.

Anonymous said...

Come on and be realistic, if and when Sg has ANOTHER one million residents, IT WILL NEED ANOTHER TWO MILLION TO SUPPORT THE FIRST MILLION!

The STUPID MEN IN WHITES JUST SIMPLY DO NOT KNOW THAT THEY ARE GIVING SINGAPOREANS HELL.

And they think they are talents!

Please do Singaporeans a little kindness; TAKE YOUR MONIES AND LEAVE SIN. Even if You are unable to give us happiness, at least do not spoil our peace of mind.

WE CAN LIVE BETTER WITHOUT THE MEN IN WHITES INTERFERING WITH OUR LIVE(life)!

patriot

Winking Doll said...

> "the short term nature of employment means that employers are reluctant to spend too much on training. Some companies hire people for the duration of one project and retrench them when the project is over. Increasing numbers are hired in temp jobs lasting a few months as employers are unwilling to commit to hiring full time."

Yes, I was from the IT line too. I noticed this trend since just before the turn of the millenium (i.e. late 90's) and it turned especially serious from the early 2000's onwards.

Anonymous said...

As long as 60% are happy, what else can any one say?

Anonymous said...

We need to import more FTs not because of declining birthrates. Declining birthrates for the past few years will only be felt 20 years from now.

We need to import more FTs because we want to grow the economy NOW! NOW!

And the fastest and laziest way to do it is to import in foreign workers on a large scale.

Needless to say, there is a necessity to turn a blind eye to their sub-standard qualifications or fake qualifications and various schemes to cheat the S-pass and E-pass systems.

People who once were only qualified to be your maids are now qualified to be your restaurant managers, cashiers and clerks, thanks to our government lowering of standards.

Many employers now no longer see the difference between a degree from NUS or Phillipines or some unknown uni in China. We just want cheaper and better workers.

Anonymous said...

The problem is that locals are very naive and always wanted to believe that the gov is harsh to citizens for their own good which is plain stupidity at its worst kind.

While they might be unhappy with the situation, they still lap up any half baked explanation cooked up by the gov. Deep inside, they know, they can do nothing to overcome the gov policies, and to relieve themselves of this helplessness, they readily swallow the half baked truth.

Too many of them are enslaved by their own fear, they will never leave the dark Plato's Cave. They will never believe that there's light outside. They will all be killed when the cave's entrance collapse.

New citizens will continue to vote in the incumbent gov as long as the gates are open til the entire gov is run by these fake citizens.

When things goes wrong, off they goes, leaving idiots like us to die.

60% killing the 40%. Face Palm, man.

Please, true blood Sinkies, leave and prosper, do not have off-springs here to let them be another economic digit in a fast decaying country where leaders chose to betray the people.

And do not waste any more time joining the oppositions, it is useless, spend more time finding ways to leave this hell, leave this place to the dogs.

Let the 60% be ravaged by the invading dogs.

Leave.

TokyoSingaporean said...

When I return for a visit to Singapore, I noticed the trains were overcrowded and I didn't manage to get a seat during my 2 weeks stay.

There's a disproportionate commuters to facilities ratio. The same goes for housing as my cousin couldn't get a BTO flat except to be told she has to wait for 4-5 years. Moreover, she had problems paying the unaffordable COV prices which are left unchecked in the resale hdb market.

THe government must put a lid on the number of foreigners who are coming in to compete for the very little resources we have on this tiny island. An overcrowded city affects the quality of life its citizens' experience.

2 casinos on a tiny island is not exactly a sign of economic growth nor is it a sign of significant moral development. Recently, I read an article by the Ministry of Education to spear a drive at Character and Values education. Is this renewed emphasis much need now because of the ill effects and social cost that comes from the casinos?

Anonymous said...

"We need to import more FTs not because of declining birthrates. Declining birthrates for the past few years will only be felt 20 years from now."

That's an erroneous error. The LKY 2-child policy in the seventies was the cause of it.

Anonymous said...

Hey Kojakbt,

I'm giving private tuition to an O-Level student and he's from China. His parents have turned citizens and he told he'll serve NS after his poly. And that his parents' have a property back home in China and family too.

I have asked my PRC friends doing their masters in NTU why they did not consider Singapore citizenship and they told me..."Singapore is not safe and secure. You cannot defend an invisible dot on the world map. It's not possible."

NS is just an illusion for their neighbours. NS is there for the poor Singaporean sons to protect the assets of the rich in this country. The rich needs a soldier to protect his money and investment. ANd you are that soldier. And you're cheap too.

Anonymous said...

Sometimes I cannot help but think our government have this notion that Singaporeans are not smart enough to see through smoke screens and over the horizon. They will be proven wrong if they continue with this mindset.

Anonymous said...

The 2 tertiaries give preferential admission to male foreign students. They will later join our local work force for at least 3 yrs as the so called gahmen bond for free to heavy tuition subsidies and thus joining the hundreds upon hundreds of thousands of foreign FT coming into banking IT manufacturing who coincidentally are like to be males in 20s or early 30s. What do these FTs entertain themselves if they do not want to spend the money on nor take the risk of commercial sex release? They start to prey on your daughters, sisters. It is safer and much if they got good enough glib tongue may even get free the women to spend on them. Our leaders had become international pimps.

Kojakbt said...

Hi Anon,

>> I'm giving private tuition to an O-Level student and he's from China. His parents have turned citizens and he told he'll serve NS after his poly. And that his parents' have a property back home in China and family too.

Yes, some new citizen families are committed to Singapore. But my feeling is that these are in the minority. Sending their sons to do NS is one good test on their commitment to Singapore.

Take a look at this case: http://theonlinecitizen.com/2011/09/interview-with-a-new-citizen/

The Indian National is the only person who becomes SG citizen. Wife and daughter stay as PRs. BUT MOST TELLING IS THIS - son remains as a foreign student on student visa and both kids study in Indian International School.

I will leave it to you good folks to decide if this is the kind of new citizens we want...

>> I have asked my PRC friends doing their masters in NTU why they did not consider Singapore citizenship and they told me..."Singapore is not safe and secure. You cannot defend an invisible dot on the world map. It's not possible."

Actually, this is rubbish. Most FTs who are given scholarships to do masters here are thinking of going to the west as their next step (I don't blame them). Most have never thought of staying here in the first place...

>> NS is just an illusion for their neighbours. NS is there for the poor Singaporean sons to protect the assets of the rich in this country. The rich needs a soldier to protect his money and investment. ANd you are that soldier. And you're cheap too

We got to separate the 2 issues. Every sovereign country has the rights to defend itself. Whether we use conscription or regular professional force, that's another matter. Hence, we defend ourselves because we want to protect our sovereignty.

Next, yes, it's true that our rich-poor divide (ie, Gini index) has widened over the last 5-6 years. It wasn't like this before. This is due to the policy flaws in the Lee Hsien Loong Govt esp over the last 5-6 years. We need to correct that ASAP.

And yes you are right. If PAP continues its pro-business, pro-growth-at-all-cost policy, the rich will become richer and the poor will become poorer. Soon, more people will be questioning what we are defending for since we have a consciption army and all males serve NS.

Anonymous said...

PAP likes to treat the locals as dummies who will die to protect their assets in return for a lousy 99 year leasehold flat and third world (long queue) public servies.

Anonymous said...

Singaporean men forgot that they have a universal duty to serve the motherland. What would are our female counterparts think of us if they know their men were so unwillingly to serve NS due to so called FT influx.

If guys dont serve NS, do you expect our ladies to fight a war for you?

NS is about freedom of our land and it has nothing to do with FT. We should be more worried about our big neighbours surrounding us. Look at how Mahathir and Habibe tried to belittle us and threatened us!

I served NS and so will my son!

Chatsworth said...

I blame my dad for all his wealth did not get me out of NS because i wasnt born in SG in the first place despite my family are Singaporeans since my great grandpa came from Xiamen.

i wasnt given a choice or told i could renounce SG citizenship and move on. the old man thought going through NS will build up a young man. Ignorant! what is there to defend? People who are brainwashed to believe you are defending your home must be off the scale in IQ.

Singaporeans are already doing this country a service by not spilling blood on the streets. Only idiots will die for SG, all your ministers have a standby home in a oversea country.

I will be in sydney at the first sign of trouble. having my sashimi with the pelicans by the side while the poor and dumb singaporeans are preparing themself for self sacrifice. those who can afford Aus, Can, Lon, NY should at least go Thailand.

Anonymous said...

http://theonlinecitizen.com/2011/09/interview-with-a-new-citizen/

"The Indian National is the only person who becomes SG citizen. Wife and daughter stay as PRs. BUT MOST TELLING IS THIS - son remains as a foreign student on student visa and both kids study in Indian International School.

I will leave it to you good folks to decide if this is the kind of new citizens we want..."

Let's not mince our words. These sort of citizens are nothing but leeches and parasites. They are just here to suck and enjoy the privileges of living in Singapore, but have no loyalty and no intentions of contributing back to Singapore.

His son does not take up citizen because he wants his son to avoid National Service.

Parasite. Leech. Period.

Anonymous said...

"....if this is the kind of new citizens we want..."

What to do? If there are no better choices available to us, this kind we also have to take what.

If not, we may not even get any new citizens. And we badly need lots of new citizens.

Anonymous said...

Mr Lucky

U have been writing the same tired stuff for the last ... 6 years?

Dun u get bored?

Come on. Tell your faithful fans what u will do to make a difference! To make the PAP sit up and change.

... I know .. make Holy Cow PM!

Anonymous said...

To: 10/10/11 20:39
Mr Lucky has passion in writing meaningful things, he will not stop.

Just like you has passion in writing meaningless things.

Anonymous said...

In the US, people are fed up with the greedy rich and they are now fighting back with Occupy Wall Street.

Kojakbt said...

To Anon,

>> Mr Lucky, U have been writing the same tired stuff for the last ... 6 years? Dun u get bored? Come on. Tell your faithful fans what u will do to make a difference! To make the PAP sit up and change.

First of all, would like to thank Lucky for his continual efforts in writing all these good articles.

Contrary to what you think, Anon, Lucky is doing a great job in educating our voters. Hopefully, more of the 60% PAP voters will be able to read some of his articles and make a more informed choice in the next GE. Lucky's articles counter balanced our mainstream news articles.

It's a pity that TR platform is down currently but I'm sure it will be up again. Lucky's articles were constantly featured in TR which helped to reach out to more readers.

And Anon, PAP is indeed sitting up and being forced to change. Notice that even in President Tony Tan's opening speech in parliament, he also talked about paying close attention to the new media and using new media to engage?

Indeed, the pen is mightier than the sword...

martinst said...

right,we not protect from anyone nothing, like pig.

Beth said...

PAP likes to treat the locals as dummies who will die to protect their assets in return for a lousy 99 year leasehold flat and third world (long queue) public servies.

Bill Protection Insurance said...

Job security is something that people nowadays badly need.