Tuesday, November 15, 2011

How I think the European Crisis will be played out....

LAST UPDATE: With the Italian and Spanish bond yield spiraling out of control crossroads for the EU will be reached pretty soon. The only choices left are all bad - they will have to choose the least bad. This article puts the choices that confronts the EU very clearly Why Europe's Central Bank May End Up Printing Money or face a disintegration of the Eurozone. The Italian govt needs to maintain a budget surplus of 5% just to maintain its debt level - this is not going to happen. With bond investors demanding close to 7% yield on Italian bonds, Italy's debt burden will escalate and default become mathematically inevitable unless the ECB intervenes. As the indecisive leadership in Europe does the "wait and see", France, the 2nd largest European economy faces a downgrade of its debt and substantially higher financing cost destabilising the entire EU. Germany itself depends mostly on its neighbors to buy its exports Unless their plan is to simply refuse to allow the ECB to print money at all cost and take immense pain of a recession (some say depression) that comes, it make sense to act early - if they wait to be forced by the markets, like the 2008 financial crisis, the consequences will be terrible when the situation spiral out of control. If they simply refuse to do it (print money), they have to be prepared to watch their economy sink and the EU breakup. Going back to my original article, I was perhaps too optimistic that European leaders will act to arrest a predictable deterioration of the situation ....this crisis has gone on and on for 2 years, they do something when they are forced to do it and never got ahead of the problem. This is almost the best time for the Germans to nod their head and just get it done, their neighbors have been been punished enough by austerity, social unrest and collapsed govt - the issue of moral hazard is no longer there. But yet we see a George Bush in Merkel, Bush held out ideologically a "no bailout" until Lehman collapsed and he was forced to bail out everyone. Merkel confronts a situation that is similar and a "no-printing money" ideology resulting from bad German memories from the Weimar Republic hyperinflation ...but the situation is completely different now and the consequences of not acting will be devastating for EU and perhaps the rest of the world....Here's an interesting article by Jim Jubak on Germany’s Support Withers as Euro Panic Worsens. He wonders how long Merkel can hold out as pressure mounts on the ECB to do something.

FURTHER UPDATE: A few commenters correctly pointed out that ECB is bounded by rules of the EU treaty not to print money. The rule is in place to avoid moral hazard. However, the ECB has been buying sovereign bonds to contain the crisis but in a limited manner to keep sovereign debt interst rates from spiking up. The question whether ECB will be a lender of the last resort and use a "wall of money" to end this crisis or keep intervening in the secondary market until "something happens". If the situation spirals out of control, the EU itself will disintegrate so that is incentive for the ECB to act. There is a fuller discussion of all the options for the EU here : Waiting for deus ex ECB by James Saft. Relooking at all the information,  I have to admit my original posting is too optimistic and naive. The stock market, currency market and bond market appeared to have taken different positions on Europe : Stock Making a risky bet on ECB printing money....the writer wisely points out there is no coherent or consistent view of how the situation will develop which explains the volatility we are seeing. If we go back to the prophetic book "Debt and Delusion"  written in the 1990s, monetizing debt (printing money) is the least bad of all the bad options that confront a country that cannot pay its debts - so we see countries like US, UK, Japan printing to pay its debts. Some believe it is the most likely outcome for the EU and the question is when not whether they will do it.: Will The ECB Print Money? The Key Question For European Debt Crisis

UPDATE: After I made my posting, an article appeared in Globe and Mail exploring the same idea with some figures to show that it is feasible [:ECB could bail out Italy in a jiffy].  It shows that if the ECB is willing to print money at the same scale as the Bank of England, it will be able not only to cover Italy's budget deficit but its entire budget for they year and Italy would not need to go to the debt market at all for one whole year instantly defusing the crisis. The UK central bank has already printed £275B and it did not cause price instability there..

I've been watching the doom and gloom predictions of pundits on TV quite closely. These dire predictions include that of  a 'Lehman moment' for the current crisis that describes a sudden catastrophic financial failure of a country or a major bank with reverberations reaching to every corner of the financial world. I also hear talking heads criticising Europe for the lack of leadership in particular the Germans (Angela Merkel) for failing to quickly defuse the crisis. My view of things are rather different. I actually believe the German leadership knows exactly what it is doing and is getting what it wants from everybody. ...let me explain....Lets start with a few questions and answers...

Which is the most indebted developed nation in the world? The answer is not Greece but Japan. In fact Japan has double the debt to GDP compared with Greece How come Japan is not in crisis like Europe or Greece? Japan is able to borrow money cheaply at 2% interest. What about USA? USA is also a highly indebted nation but investors are flocking to buy US treasuries (US debt) and they can't seem to get enough of it driving 30 yr US treasuries to the lowest interest rate in history. US is deep in debt but creditors are very eager to lend it money. Spain collapsed and needed a bailout very early on in the crisis at a point in time when its debt to GDP was smaller than that of Britain. Creditors did not want to lend money to Spain but are more than willing to lend to Britain. Why?

The answer to all the above question is Japan, Britain and US owe a debt denominated in its own currency so they can print as much money as they need to pay their creditors so it is not possible for these countries to default. During the Asian crisis, Thailand had a debt denominated in US$ so when the baht fell against the US$ it collapsed quickly because it could find enough US$ to pay its creditors. So the main difference between countries in trouble and those that are not is not the size of the debt but  whether they are able to print money to pay down their debts.

How come the ECB (European Central Bank) did not print Euros and print its way out of the crisis? They were trying to at some point but the Germans opposed to it. Printing money has this effect of stealing a bit of money from everyone in the Eurozone (by way of inflation) and it is unfair for the Germans who have kept their deficits small by cutting entitlements for its citizens.Printing money to bailout these nations will result in a moral hazard ...these countries have to learn some important and painful lessons.  So instead of printing money which was a relatively easy thing to do, the Europeans orgainsed a massive bailout package known as ESFS [Link]. If a financially troubled nation wants money from the ESFS, it has to play ball by implementing harsh austerity measures and promises to cut deficits something these countries refused to do before the crisis.. The Germans got what they wanted out of these spend-thrift  nations using the ESFS as a big stick. Without ESFS money, these countries would have to default on their loans and the govt would collapse instantly because they have no money to keep the govt going.

With the political leaders in Greece and Italy thrown out and replaced by technocrats who previously worked in the ECB and EC, they will quickly pushed through budget cuts and austerity in the respective countries. Creditors who lent to Greece have been punished with a 50% haircut on the amount they loaned.

Now with every one who misbehaved painfully punished, I believe the ECB will start printing money and buying sovereign debt of troubled European nations. It had done so intermittently in the past but have just declared they print money and buy all the sovereign bonds they need to buy to stabilise the situation [ECB bond buys will go as far as needed: Kranjec], The Germans will not stop the ECB at this point because they have already gotten what they want in terms of austerity and fiscal discipline from nations that caused the crisis. Germany is highly dependent on these countries to buy their exports and cannot have the situation deteriorate. Printing money and buying bonds is an incremental process that does not affect significantly price stability (cause massive inflation) in the short term....it pushes the interest rate down and gives the ESFS more "bang for the buck" instead of giving high returns to creditors.

In short, despite what we see on TV and read in the news papers and our Prime Minister urging European leaders to put in more effort to "avert a global meltdown" (Focus on euro zone crisis, avert global meltdown: PM).....I believe the crisis has already ended. While there may be sudden kneejerk of financial markets reacting to various news from Europe, the worse part of the crisis, I believe, is behind us. The problems in Europe are long term in nature and will be morph from a crisis to a graceful degradation...they will can and keep kicking the can down the road spreading their financial problems over time..

61 comments:

Anonymous said...

What a bullshit. Get your facts right (i.e. who is the biggest debtor in the world), because now it doesnt hold together.

The same goes with Germans and France - they don't give a fuck about Greece economy - all they want is to rescue thier own banks from deafult in case of Greece's bankruptcy.

Crisis is about to begin.

Anonymous said...

That is a refreshing thoughts

Anonymous said...

I think Japan won't default because they say most of its people has alot of savings.

It is true that US can print as much money as it wanted because it's the world currency.

Germans are not that stupid to just give away their money.

Europe should just default, like Ireland. Save them from the pain later.

Hang Seng Parasite said...

You hit it on the nail! it is exactly right. once EFSF spring into action on december, Europe will be behind us and a new crsis will appear.

current candiate include

1. china banks
2. china property
3. US Municipal bonds
4. Fannie and Freddie
5. Middle east default

Anonymous said...

The sudden knee jerk incidentally kicks the can further down the road and the can could not be found anymore..
Problem solved :p

Anonymous said...

That's why tomorrow will still be like today, and which is like yesterday. Very normal and peaceful.

And this will last for a long, long time and even surpassing our lifetime.

Anonymous said...

Love your blog
Very clear explanation of happenings.
If EFSF works, I doubt ECB will go the Federal Reserve route. They have the future to think about and may not want such a system inbuilt into ECB which will lead to budget complacency among member countries again.
ECB mandate is controlling inflation. Letting them print money goes against this mandate.

But of course given the tough environment facing the economy and financial institutions plagued by crazy regulatory demands, it might just be necessary for ECB to step in if more sovereign of banking failures occur.

ink cartridges for printers said...

your thoughts is so much amazing , you refresh the mind connections.

Anonymous said...

Lucky, I agreed with your analysis but a recession in Europe is unavoidable, can you provide your thought on its implication on Singapore especially on the property market?

Anonymous said...

The worst part of Singapore property prices is also behind us.

So things can only get better for the people. And also for the PAP.

Anonymous said...

Bulls will always be bulls and bears will always be bears. And dumb papaya supporters will always be ... (no prize for the right answer though).

Amused said...

I believe you gave too much weight to the news report (Kranjec.) They have made many similar statements in the past and the situation has gotten worse each time. (E.g. how many times have they "rescued" Greece?)

The situation is very grave right now. The sovereign debt yields are rising as of this writing in EVERY eurozone country EXCEPT Germany. Just look at the French 30-year bond yield at 4.4% and rising compared to Germany's 2.5% and declining, and you will see that the situation is getting out of hand. The spread had been at .1% to .3% until recently.

This implies a couple possible scenarios: 1. Germany quits Eurozone, or 2. The weakest links quit Eurozone. In any case, I can't think of any good outcome. I am afraid it will be a bleak Christmas in Europe, and everywhere, this year.

Lucky Tan said...

Amused,

These bond yield reflects the current anxiety and lack of confidence in the Eurozone. It is also in effect what is pushing countries one after another to seek bailout and austerity.

The ECB can push these yields down just like what Bernanke is doing with operation TWIST and earlier QE2. Allow the yields to rise only makes sense for Germany to push other Eurozone countries to fiscal discipline. You don't want the yield to remain high over time because they will be just using bailout money to pay bondholder returns....at such high yields they risk great instability in the Eurozone.

It make sense to print and pay at this point in time to avert a deeper recession.

Anonymous said...

"I am afraid it will be a bleak Christmas in Europe, and everywhere, this year."
Amused 10:47

Do you see anything bleak in Singapore? I can only see prosperity everywhere, eg roads are filled with cars, MRT is so crowded with people going to work, (seems very few are jobless here), my favourite restaurants are packed, condo prices start at $1M still got buyers, so many new millionaires, etc etc.

No wonder PAP can get 93% seats in elections.

jim said...

1) Do not view the Eurozone with American lenses. Or British for that matter. The Eurozone are a) democracies and b) composed of largely ageing, retiring populations.

2) As a consequence, the Eurozone has low tolerance for inflation, since it eats away the buying power of pensions. In fact, pensioners will love high interest rates and a deep recession, as long as it does not get so deep that the pensions get cut.

3) So your proposal of firing up the printing press is not democratically feasible. This is why the ex Greek PM wanted a referendum for the bailout conditions. He needs the nation to commit collectively else any government trying to implement the measures will be toppled.

4) To save the Eurozone, Eurozone must first abandon democracy. But to take that route is to embark back on that old path to the Third Reich, this time Euro-wide. But they will figure this out, sooner or later.

Anonymous said...

Who cares what happen to Eurozone as long as Singapore still has peace, stability and for 60%, prosperity as well.

Anonymous said...

Not all Singaporeans will suffer in any economic downturn.
Those that are in control of policies and businesses are in some ways immuned from economic catastrophe.
It is the same in everywhere.

Amused said...

Lucky,

The German court has previously ruled that any additional EFSF funding will require a popular referendum. I hope it is clear by now that any referendum will not pass. (They all freaked out when they heard that the Greeks were given a chance to vote on the last bailout deal.)

Further, the current EU treaty does not give ECB the power to print. To change the treaty will take months and not likely to pass.

The endgmae is in sight. It did not take long for the Italian yield to shoot up. Just watch the sovereign yields in the coming days (not weeks or months.) Ignore the spins by EU officials. They have proved that they are incapable or unable to change the course of the event.

For those who think Singapore is immune, I hope you are right. But your Reserve is going to take a hit just like it did in 2008/2009. And if Euro blows up, it's anyone's guess what it will do to your savings.

I don't look forward to this but I don't see a way out.

Anonymous said...

Jim's perspective seems more aligned to the present reality in Europe as he brings to the analysis a political science lens which Lucky lacks. This post smirks of a cut-and-paste mentality that seeks to ride on the uncritical opinion of videos and blogs. Sometimes, you have a tendency to extrapolate your reality from secondary sources and miss the ground feel which a political science lens and real-life experience can provide.

Going by the approach, you would never reached the unspoken reality that Japan has a lot of homeless people, Europeans do not want inflation to eat itno their pension or male teachers are marginalised in MOE schools.

You are entitled to your opinion but we have to grant an informed opinion priority.

Cheers.

Anonymous said...

the europeans have had their siestas. a century of eat-fuck-sleep is great by any stds, abt time they get back to the sweat shops to rediscover work. arrh life's so fair. as long as they are obedient they shud nt worry abt the min wages. jia u!

Anonymous said...

Everything in EU depends on Germany, and Germany will not agree to money printing (due to its own painful experience). Germany is the only solvent and productive country large enough left in EU, and everyone looks to Germany to backstop the EFSF and any bailout money, but this is unspoken but understood.

Germany loves the Euro becoz they enjoy the same situation as China ---- undervalued currency. If Germany is to go back to its own individual currency the Deutschmark, the exchange rate will be much higher, and Germany's exports will be much more expensive. So Germany will like to continue kicking the can down the road, to the benefit of itself but at the expense of the less productive EU countries.

However, if the other EU countries show hand and die-die want to print money, Germany will rather leave the Euro. Merkel's govt will be voted out within 3 months. The other EU countries know this, so they don't dare to force Germany's hand. The gameshow now is basically to keep telling less productive EU countries to eat less, spend less, tax more, implement more austerity measures, but they conveniently forgot to tell these countries how to be more productive, how to sell more to other countries, how to earn money so that they can actually pay off their debts. The endgame is obvious.

Germany is simply buying more time to enjoy undervalued currency. At best it is trying to maneuver for a smaller EMU comprising of the more productive northern EU countries and cordoning the southern EU countries into a lower 2nd-class Euro.

Ghost said...

Sorry Lucky but the ECB cannot print money at the same scale as the Bank of England. The reason is simple, the ECB print Euros which is backed by the European nations. However the Euro itself is not a national currecny, it depend on the Germans and French to back it. They cannot print without getting the approval of the Germans and French first. And I doubt they will get the approval.

Anonymous said...

My wish for Singapore:

1. A caring government who cares about people more than about money and is not cynical about it.
2. A government who speaks the truth and explains its policies with the Singaporean in mind.
3. A government that doesn’t believe in hypocrisy.
4. A government that has moral authority and doesn’t build casinos and still claims recently to inculcate Values Education, Citizenship and Character Education in school.
5. A government that doesn’t allow old Singaporeans to eke a living selling tissue papers, be cleaners and clean up after the younger ones in hawker centres and fast-food restaurant.
6. A government that doesn’t make money out of the housing of its people.
7. A government that doesn’t makes Singaporean families take a primary school further away from home because foreigners join the balloting process.
8. A Singaporean-first policy that is actually legislated.
9. A government that appreciates what it means to be a human being.
10. A country that doesn’t discriminate its own minority citizens in opportunities.
11. Less dirty politics that seek to control people unnecessarily. A less strict government that doesn’t bully.
12. A creative government that can tackle the issues well and put their mouth where their dollar is.
13. A non-millionaire government and as such a lower cost of government.
14. Let people have the CPF at age 55 and keep their word about it.
15. Reform the CPF
16. Transparency
17. Abolish the ISA and Death penalty
18. A government that unites a disenfranchised and disenchanted citizenry at present.

Anonymous said...

We talk about meritocracy but we are a society that have the highest income inequality in the world.

This country is run on politics and economics. The same goes for the working in any organisation or company in Singapore. Politics and economics. Singapore is not about talent. It's always been about politics. All hokkien peng knows this: suck up to the right boss, suck up to who can give you profit, etc.. We are an uncaring society that runs on kiasuism and kiasism. We are so socially volatile; it's a matter of time as we're witnessing a growing discontent in the netizen community with regard to this foreigner and Singaporean issue. My daughter was late for CCA activity this morning. When she told her teacher that the train was overcrowded that she couldn't get in, she was punished instead.

We need to rethink and reevaluate our values as a nation and see what we are trying to achieve in this country.

Anonymous said...

Unless EU promotes english as their main language, they will never be able to compete with US, Canada, Australia etc. who can outsource to cheap english speaking countries. They are slow and inefficient at the moment all because they stubbornly cling on to their imported native language like French.

Anonymous said...

The Germans are proud of their own Language and Germany is the most successful economically, in Europe.

Anonymous said...

Mr Lucky

We are aware that you rich because you are plain lucky. No need to prove that you are clueless again.

Can you go back to praising cow for doing a great job again?

Anonymous said...

The problem with EU is one cannot use pension to pay for mortgage like in Singapore. So the pension funds are easy target for cons.

Lucky Tan said...

anon 22;24,

Aiyah like Buffett said better to be born lucky than smart. hmmm...better still born rich in Singapore where taxes are low.

I don't remember praising Khaw that much...may be I said he was doing better than Mah....I really take issue with is Singapore vs Bhutan on the happiness thing....next posting on the way.

Anonymous said...

Hi Lucky,

You didn't mention anything about how the European crisis will affect Singapore in this post.

I think not just me but many others also like to know.

Amused said...

Anon@10:15,

I believe the property market in Singapore will crash within next 2 years. First, the Chinese property will crash - it is at the beginning right now. Then all these Chinese monies buying up properties in Singapore will dry up. Without foreign money, your property prices cannot be sustained by your income.

Given that Singapore economy is so dependent on others, it will go into another recession soon. And it will likely be a deep one as was the last one.

It is a very difficult investment environment for everyone. You will be lucky to preserve your purchasing power and capital in the next few years.

Good luck!

Anonymous said...

Lucky, after angering with u, your further update confused me so exactly what is your take now?

Anonymous said...

Even if Singapore is in recession, MRT will still be crowded, COE will still be high, everything will still be expensive, the streets will still be peaceful etc etc, right?

Just like previous recessions, right?

So what's the big deal?

Anonymous said...

The big deal will be that all the rich buggers will have plenty of opportunities to buy more properties at lower prices.

Anonymous said...

Lucky, this post is not complete unless u share your thought on the implication it has on Singapore especially the property market. Love to know your insight.

Anonymous said...

What is mr Lucky's take?

Same as always!

It's going to bad!
Very bad!
But that's your problem.
I am going to be fine.
Now praise me(lucky Tan)

Anonymous said...

What is mr Lucky's take?

Same as always!

It's going to bad!
Very bad!
But that's your problem.
I am going to be fine.
Now praise me(lucky Tan)

Anonymous said...

germany has conquered eu without fighting a war. i think the next step is eu will slowly realise this little ambition of germany and start to print money. that will be the end of eu crsis and start of china crisis. so at the end, everyone will start printing money and inflation will shoot to the top. so folks, start to invest in farmland else you will have nothing to eat even if you have plenty of monies.

Anonymous said...

germany has conquered eu without fighting a war. i think the next step is eu will slowly realise this little ambition of germany and start to print money. that will be the end of eu crsis and start of china crisis. so at the end, everyone will start printing money and inflation will shoot to the top. so folks, start to invest in farmland else you will have nothing to eat even if you have plenty of monies.

Anonymous said...

we're on a ..quote; permanently high plateau of prosperity...where the poorhouse is vanishing from among us.. dun sell your flat.

Jamesneo said...

hi lucky why my message got deleted?

ultraman said...

even if ECB success to pull down the interest rate, EU is still hopeless because of austerity.

I cannot imagine EU can be survived when half of their youths are unemployed and million of government workers are retrenched.

EU embraces austerity when there is lack of private aggregate demand. Jobless and humiliation from foreign country (read German)are perfect seedbeds for radical political movements to prosper ( read next Nazi).

Unless there is an u-turn in EU austerity policy, EU's problem is going to be with us for a long long time.

Anonymous said...

Great comment !
Looking forward to reverting to false prosperity in next 2 years like the US crisis in 2008.
Although still kicking the can down the street, looks like the best option for a softer landing.
I was looking forward to a QE3 and looks like this could be it; abeit coming from Europe.
The bright side is buying some more time for Asian and BRIC economies to be larger in size to help maintain global economic growth. Worth a shot !

Amused said...

Lucky,

This is in response to your Last Update.

It is wishful thinking that Germany will agree to money printing. It is not Merkel's choice; it is an ingrained German ideology. Germany would rather have a recession than bailing out the rest of spendthrift Europe.

Now back to the sovereign interest rates. As bad as they are today, they are actually reverting to the rates before Euro. Yes, Spain, Italy, and even France pay much higher interest rates before the creation of EU. EU provided a cheap lending source for sovereign states although their default risks have not changed. The rates are now just reflecting reality (plus some panic.) But why should any country borrow at the same cost as Germany? The demise of CDS also pushes rates to where they belong.

You will continue to see many people outside Germany advocating for printing press (but it is not their money at stake!) As I mentioned before, either Germany quits euro or a bunch of weak links dropping out of euro.

Best.

Anonymous said...

Singaporeans should not be too alarmed by development in Europe.

Singapore is like Germany in Asia, Singapore can afford to aid the 'less developed' Asean coutries without having to bail any. And Singapore can sell much of itself to those who want to have footholds on Sin.

Buy, spend and splurge and our economy will just go up, up and UP.

Anonymous said...

No matter what, no Eurozone nation will quit Euro.

Just like no ASEAN nation will quit ASEAN.

Good or bad, these things will remain status quo for a long, long time.

Anonymous said...

No matter how SIngapore helps others, it won't make much difference to Asia or the world lah.

But if others help Singapore, wah lau, makes lots of differnce to Singapore, man.

Just look at the number of foreign talents here and you know lah.

Aurvandil said...

Lucky

It is highly unlikely that things will get resolved so simply and easily. The stage is set for a prolonged period of stagflation. You can only roll the debt over at low interest rates before inflation kicks in.

What will happen when you reach the stage where there is high inflation and you cannot raise interest rates without causing a soverign debt default?

Anonymous said...

"What will happen when you reach the stage where there is high inflation and you cannot raise interest rates without causing a soverign debt default?"
Aurvandil 18/11/11 14:04

As far as Singapore is concerned, nothing will happen. Tomorrow will be the same as today, as surely as the sun rises and sets.

Anonymous said...

Lucky, if Germany does not agree with France to let ECB to print money to kick the can further down the road and insists on austerity measures by the PIIGS then a European recession is inevitable only the degree may be a question mark.

That being so, there will be either a global recession or a slow down and this will have implication on Singapore being so trade dependent. If unemployment goes up to 5 or 6%, then the property market will be in trouble with the banks who loan 51% of their money to the property sector also in trouble. I am amazed that while the USA & European banks valuation has corrected by 30 to 40%, our DBS bank ytd correction is less than 5% from this year high. Investors certainly have great confidence in Singapore property and banking sectors?

Anonymous said...

Merkel will not agree until there is another Lehman-type event and all credit markets lock-up. If she agrees now, chances are she'll be voted out within 1 month and Germans will vote in a new govt that will immediately do a 180-degree and say No. Merkel knows this, so she's just doing hentak-kaki for the moment. She needs stock markets to go down 60%, property markets to go down 40%, and every father-mother-son-daughter to be KPKB-ing in the streets before she will say Yes.

If there's a Europe credit lockup and/or big European bank go bust, Asia will be hit hard. Much worse than if US banks go bust. Becoz much of the credit lines in Asia come from European banks --- property developers, local banks, businesses, MNCs etc all depend a lot on loans and credit from European banks. US banks don't really do much business in Asia, except maybe in Japan.

Anonymous said...

"Investors certainly have great confidence in Singapore property and banking sectors?"
Anon 18/11/11 17:49

Of course. How big is Singapore compared to USA or Europe?

This alone will make Singapore uncomparable with any country, let alone a continent.

Another is the 60% Singaporeans love for the PAP for 46 years and still loving.

That's why I have great confidence in things Singapore and of course the Sing dollar and Sing properties.

And Singapore will be forever peaceful and the last place on earth to have protests!

Anonymous said...

Always remember this.

23% to 33% to 40% to ...

The numbers are growing. In time, many civil servants too will not vote for the incumbent's policies.

A mellowed PAP that doesn't not reform the HDB and CPF policy, along with the rising cost of living issues, is a PAP that is hao lian and has not changed what it promised.

Look around you. And you're lucky if you can today recognise someone without asking them: "Where are you from?"

Stop contributing to making Singapore a living stress for Singaporeans. Use your heart and not your mind.

Has your life improved today compared to 4 years ago?

Anonymous said...

Indisputably the lives of our foreigners and the local elites, ministers' pay in particular, have improved tremendously during SM Goh's watch.

Anonymous said...

"Indisputably the lives of our foreigners and the local elites, ministers' pay in particular, have improved tremendously during SM Goh's watch."
Anon 19/11/11 02:02

Yah lah, but even foreigners + local elites together cannot be majority what. Don't tell me they are 60% of voters? And some foreigners who are not yet citizens cannot vote, you know.

We are talking about 60% majority, you know.

Anonymous said...

//We are talking about 60% majority, you know.
Anon. 19/11/11 10:22//

Big deal!

For your information,
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak won 88.6% of the votes and he has already been overthrown and is on trial now.

Anonymous said...

What happened to Hosni Mubarak in Egypt will NEVER HAPPENS in Singapore.
Just relax and sleep well.

Anonymous said...

If Egypt is only 5 million people and only 700 sq km, definitely Hosni Mubarak will have no problem winning 93% or even 100% seats in elections. And definitely he won't be overthrown. Maybe his son can even take over if Mubarak thinks he is too old to rule.

Anonymous said...

Nothing needs to be done.

The decay has taken root from within.
Just allow time for things to weaken by themselves.

How will this happen?

Passion drives many things and without it, the flame will diminish.

Sincerity strengthens bonds and without it, the flame cannot withstand strong winds and it will be extinguished.

In the absence of these.. the decline is evident and nothing needs be done..regardless of which party is running.

Just sit back and witness the decay... no explosion, no big bang.. just a comfortable slide into unconciousness.. relaxed.

Anonymous said...

I think we can all agree that 40% of Singaporeans are presently putting up with PAP.

Anonymous said...

We should stop paying pension to our ministers too. All these million dollars saved can be used to help the poor and needy. Where in Singapore do we still see people drawing pension and more so with all these million dollars rich ministers. Our CPF interest is damned bloody low and locked up to feed the PAP pension scheme? What kind of country is doing that to the people? 60%?