Wednesday, April 25, 2012

The ugly truth about TFR and foreign influx....

Yesterday we heard this argument again - if Singapore's fertility rate does not go up, we have to import more foreigners. A paper from the National Population and Talent Division, suggested that unless we get our TFR (Total Fertility Rate) up from 1.2 which is the lowest in Asia, we need an inflow of 25,000 to keep our working population stable[Immigration crucial in baby-scarce Singapore: Govt paper].

"Without immigration, the paper shows that citizen deaths will exceed births in 13 years. By 2025, the population will also start to age and shrink, with the median age being 45 - up from the current 39 years.

The citizen workforce will also start to shrink, with fewer working-age citizens supporting each elderly citizens.

Currently, there are 6.3 working-age citizens supporting each elderly citizen.

By 2030, this ratio will drop to 2.1 is to 1." - Today Report [Link]


 I haven't gone through the numbers but lets take it that it is correct and reasonable to maintain a workforce of a constant size. That is not what the PAP govt did in the last 10 years - they were not maintaining the workforce but expanding it to ramp up the GDP:

The above chart shows just the new PRs + new citizens [Link]does not include the large non-resident workforce of more than 1 million (see previous posting). Lets get this clear : the large foreign influx of the last 10 years was not about maintaining our workforce due to declining TFR but to expand the workforce - the numbers of 100,000 (2008) is just too big to justify using declining TFR.  Also, when you import an adult, you're compensating for lower TFR of 20-30 years ago when that adult should have been born in Singapore - our TFR was about 1.7 to 1.8 during that time. By expanding the workforce so rapidly in the last 10 years, we have a even bigger ageing workforce to replace in 2030 .....the PAP worsened the original problem through its liberal immigration policy now tells us that it needs to import people to fix it!

There are 3 options for a country when its TFR goes down 1. Get the TFR back up 2. Import people 3. Let the population age.

Most countries have taken option 1 and succeeded. Japan tried option 1, failed and are now at option 3. Many countries don't have the low TFR problem e.g. Malaysia, Indonesia, USA.

How did our TFR fall to the lowest or one of the lowest in the world? If you check the list of countries with lowest fertility in Wikipedia, Singapore appears near or at the bottom depending on data set[Link]. We are close to Macau and Hong Kong - 2 territories with similar combination of  traits of very high population density and high income gap - in fact if you get another list of highest population density and income gap in the developed world, you find Singapore, Macau and Hong Kong right on top.  The relationship between high population density has been found and researched [Link, Link].The PAP compounded the low fertility problem by importing more people causing the population density to increase and the HDB adds to this vicious cycle by shrinking flat sizes arguing that Singapore families are now smaller when in fact people have fewer children because they cannot afford bigger better housing.

Once the TFR falls, govts intervene to get it back up. In most cases, they are able to stabilise it to prevent it from falling further or better still get it back up.

"History shows that governments can raise birthrates close to replacement levels if they adopt the right policies. France and Sweden, for example, have crafted thoughtful, comprehensive and consistent policy responses that have largely reversed their declining birthrates over the long run."Mind the Baby Gap

However, TFR in Singapore fell and kept falling until it became the lowest in the world [CIA Factbook]. How did this happen despite PAP govt claims that it was encouraging families to have more children?

The PAP efforts to get the TFR back up is tainted by other goals. In the late 80s when the problem was detected, the PAP govt wanted to take an eugenics approach to solving this problem with the graduate parents scheme - they wanted only graduate parents in particular married graduate women to have more children[Graduate Mother's Scheme]. The scheme neglected ordinary citizens, most of whom were not graduates and the govt saw a backlash at the 1986 elections and the scheme had to be scrapped. To get the TFR back up, govts that have succeeded implemented simple and non-discriminatory schemes e.g taking care of the delivery and medical expenses for the child during the early years. Giving financial aid, say,  to families who need help to care for a child encourages more people to have children. However, these are not the type of schemes PAP implemented - the policies implemented by the PAP are highly discriminatory and tainted by other objectives.

Take the HOPE scheme as an example. It is meant to help poorer families with children's education and housing. However, families only qualify for aid if they have only one or 2 children - they get nothing if they have more children. Doesn't a family with 3 children need more help? How does denying help to families with 3 or more children lead to better outcomes for them? This help scheme is hijacked for the purpose of social engineering  to discourage certain groups from having more children. How can our TFR be raise when hundreds of thousands of families belong to these groups are discouraged from having more children? How many of you come from modest income families with more than 2 children...you wouldn't even exist if your parents went on the HOPE scheme!

Instead of simple financial incentive given to all women who have children, the govt decided to give financial incentives in the form of tax rebates - $20,000 for the 3rd & 4th child[Link]. These tax rebates have to be used within 5 years. Such financial incentives are targeted at high income families who can fully utilize the rebate because they pay higher income taxes - those earning $40K and below claim less than one tenth the rebate. Anyone with common sense knows that giving more money to those who are already highly paid and less or nothing to those who need it most is a bad incentive scheme to encourage Singaporeans to have more children. These schemes are not effective and have failed to boost our TFR.

We are in our present situation because of various policies the PAP has pursued over the years. Now they are using the current low TFR figure to justify importing more foreigners. Why not revamp the incentives scheme and encourage more women to have children by removing the discriminatory nature of the current schemes? Why not solve the housing issue and ease the burden of married Singaporeans?

The ugly truth is this ....I don't think the PAP govt cares if the workforce is largely native Singaporeans or imported. Only ordinary Singaporeans care and worry about this. For the PAP, Singapore is Singapore Inc and they take a corporatist view of things. Companies love to recruit trained personnel from other companies especially their competitors.  It is cheaper to let other countries educate their people and supply us with a workforce. The moment China opened up, the PAP leaders were eager to conduct a war for talent to bring Chinese students here. In other countries, it may be done by private companies but never at the govt level in such a big scale. Leaders of other countries, be it South Korea, Japan or Taiwan focus on developing their own people to the fullest and relying on their own people to compete globally - they may recruit a small number of special talents e.g. S. Korean national soccer team coach but it is their own people that do the heavy lifting. It is this faith leaders have in their people that  takes a country forward to achieve great things. Leaders who get into power and wished they had some other country's people will lead its own citizens from one disappointment to another.

For the PAP, it doesn't matter if this economy runs and hums with your children when they grow up or the somebody from the Philippines,  China or India. But ask yourself, if you do not defend this island and contribute to its development for your family and your children, what else is it worth doing for?

126 comments:

Anonymous said...

Well said Lucky. Thanks for another great piece of article that rebuke every single shred of PAP and MSM's propaganda. I see that they have gone all out in full force on this, justifying their past actions, and future action. The headline say

"Singapore Will Continue to Import "good quality' immigrants."

The italics and emphasis is 'good quality' but it should have been 'will continue'!!

I am sick and tired of these blatant lies put up by them. Many economist or even reputed demographers have said this over and over - projections is NOT predictions. Clearly they are trying to pull a fast one , yet again, on singaporeans.
People need to throw all these assumptions back at them, and deny them the mandate and approval to proceed.

Go watch this video by Yale on low fertility and his explanation, and people will understand why all the logic by PAP is faulty. They are clearly playing with fire and social unrest!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NUxzHOM2NmQ&feature=relmfu

Citizens unite!

Anonymous said...

Dear Mr Lucky Tan,

You are so knowledgeable. Thank you for another piece of very good work.

I do not think any of the million dollar salaried minister can do likewise.

Once again, I say THANK YOU.

Anonymous said...

Our government has lost credibility when an academic challenged their decision.

So they brought in another academic from their own pre-selected Lee Kuan Yew School Of Policy to do damage control.

That's what these schools are constructed for. To offer second opinions and statistical validation for the PAP's lens of how things are and should be.

Thank you for addressing. I wanted to address this too and perhaps I, too, should start blogging.

Anonymous said...

Dear LT,

You should join any alternative party when you feel the time is right.

There is a need to put that voice for a better Singapore. Rather, we're now fire-fighting the current problems in the country with statistical skewing and painting a rosy picture that all is well.

Anonymous said...

Moral of the story:

Don't eat your fill of sashimi already and complain to the boss it has caused you to diarrhea and you want your refund because the boss will tell you to shit out your costly sashimi from your mouth instead of your asshole.

From the wise saying of Gandhi

Anonymous said...

All the doom & gloom portrayals of population decline are flawed in fundamental ways...and that has been articulated by many known demographers. Here PAP construct them from selected facts taken out of context, and they are static; they overlook the way change in one variable causes others to change.
Instead they chose to use 1.2 TFR as the constant variable as if that remain consistent.

In fact, just erasing the gap between men's & women's rates can easily cut the pensioner/worker ratio by over 20%. Or extending the retirement-age by 1 point will affect the p/w ratio. But have they done that? Were they prepared to invest and create meaningful jobs for older workers so that they can continue to work till 65 or 68? The old economic paradigms no longer work, and parroting out-dated paradigms or 'holding people hostage' statements do not add value to any argument, nor provide a solution. Like the low wage/productivity issue, PAP wants to 'import' their way out for quick fix. This is simply undesirable.

We should ask too - why would having few people be bad?

Population decline is simply too new an art form, and NO ONE can categorically say the PAP's calculation is how the country will turn out.

Anonymous said...

Here's what they claimed on Baby Incentives: -

2001 - 500m
2004 - $800m
2008 - $1.6 billion
--
Home Defense - $12.28 billion in 2012

So they half-heartedly put aside 1-2 billions for a critical and important issue like TFR and they after 1 decade of lost time, they declared it's not working.
Compare that with what we spend on Defense?

France, Sweden & other scandinavian countries have invested 'greatly' on promoting TFR and very successfully reverted the situation. Such policies and programs go wide and deep...in every aspect - from childcare, to paid leave, to parental support etc, that requires a whole social infrastructure redesign - in both workplace and someplace - that today they are reaping their fruits. What did PAP do?
They do half-baked jobs like you say, continuing to discriminate certain segment of people and they then raise their hands and said - see we tried it and it didn't work..so now we have to import FTs.

Who are we trying to kid?

When Singaporeans nowadays don't even want old aged homes in their backyard, and if it were not for GE 2011 where people demanded more help to the elderly, why do you think the young generations who aren't even singaporeans want to support you in old age?

People better wake up, this is a very serious subject that they should never let PAP get away. It's now or never.

Anonymous said...

The choice is pitched as one of importing more immigrants or having more babies (thus laying the blame of the influx of foreigners on the population instead of the policymakers and government). This is never a real choice in any society. In Japan, the fertility rate is not that high but that has not hampered their innovation-driven growth.
Seriously, this kind of sales pitch just indicate how policymakers are taking the easy way out by going for more immigrants. In short, they are not willing to work hard for the scandalously large amount of salary they take home every month.

Anonymous said...

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/19/opinion/mind-the-baby-gap.html?_r=1

... History shows that governments can raise birthrates close to replacement levels if they adopt the right policies. France and Sweden, for example, have crafted thoughtful, comprehensive and consistent policy responses that have largely reversed their declining birthrates over the long run...

These countries dedicated 4% of the GDP to revert the declining TFR. How much did our PAP allocate again? And of those amount they claim to have pledged, how much was 'actually' given out again?

I have to agree with Lucky on this. This govt is going to run it like company, with or without you native singaporeans. It's the digit that counts, and they perpetuity in power that matters. We are all just numbers that they can subtract and minus.

Anonymous said...

many had "lost faith in the government

Anonymous said...

Many think both, the gov and the oppo are assholes.

Din said...

Excellent insights and analysis that puts to shame the S'pore mainstream media who only have reporters working in them. Not a single journalists bcos they can't think critically and analyse; only report!! All of them paid to remain daft!

Anonymous said...

The Pro Alien party says;
------------------------
Singaporeans are the problem.
And the solution is more anti-Singaporean policies

The Opposition Parties say;
--------------------------
The Pro Alien Party is the problem.
And voting for Opposition Parties is the solution.

Anonymous said...

The government's "Stop at Two" policy was pitched in similar fashion: if the population do not curtail the birth rate, then Singapore will not survive. And what happened eventually? The birth rate dropped to such a low rate that we are again on the point of doing a U-turn. The report does not even consider the possibility of a baby boom. What happen if the govt proceeds to get so many immigrants and then there is a baby boom for some reasons in the next 20 years?

Such pseudo-predictions by "experts" cannot be trusted because these "experts" often do an exceedingly poor job of forecasting (See Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Are Next to Worthless, and You Can Do Better)

Anonymous said...

Let me share some UK experiences in this.

One of great Labour success was growing Britain's birthrate. The 1990s saw births fall, hitting a record low of 1.63 babies per woman in 2001. But by 2010 births rose to their highest in 40 years, reaching two per woman. Immigrant mothers helped – but the Office for National Statistics shows births rose among British-born mothers. Why? Government childcare and tax credits were a key factor, they say. Labour was never pro-natalist: extra babies were an unintended consequence of unprecedented help for mothers. Maternity leave doubled and was better paid, with paternity leave introduced and mothers able to request flexible working hours.

--
It showed that at the end, it was the british born mothers who fuel the birth rate when the right policies and incentives were given.

One of PAP's big assumptions is that these young working migrants, how many are actually young couples who then have children here and stay rooted. Many remain PRs, and come and go. They have no statistic and numbers to show how many of the PRs given citizenships have eventually contributed successfully to childbirth here? !!

Anonymous said...

" It is cheaper to let other countries educate their people and supply us with a workforce."

That's why Duke medical school trains only <50 students per year to become clinician scientists instead of medical practitioners and NTU's new medical school is yet to open. Meanwhile, for the past 15 years, we keep importing so many foreign doctors to the extent that now every year, the number of newly registered doctors who are foreigners are greated than the numbers who are local!

Anonymous said...

"For the PAP, it doesn't matter if this economy runs and hums with your children when they grow up or the somebody from the Philippines, China or India. But ask yourself, if you do not defend this island and contribute to its development for your family and your children, what else is it worth doing for?"

Spot on Lucky! If only Singaporeans aren't as DAFT and DUMBASS as LKY said it, they would have seen that there is no future for themselves or their children in PAP's Hotel Sinkapura.

Anonymous said...

Anon @ 25/4/12 13:28:

"Such pseudo-predictions by "experts" cannot be trusted because these "experts" often do an exceedingly poor job of forecasting"

Especially when these "experts" are from or commissioned by PMO/PAP to whitewash the issue and justify their insane FT import numbers!

Anonymous said...

The Pro Alien Party:
Unnatural men.
Machine men, with machine minds and machine hearts.

Men who despise you,
enslave you,
who regiment your lives,
tell you what to do,
what to think and what to feel;
who drill you,
diet you,
treat you like cattle,
use you as cannon fodder.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5IvPIWzQcUY

Anonymous said...

All so stupid. No party best.

Snark said...

Hmm... Let's look back on history where ideologies and stances are documented, especially when there is one particular man pulling the strings then and now.


'If you don't include your women graduates in your breeding pool and leave them on the shelf, you would end up a more stupid society. The men don't believe me. Every year, I produce them the results. You marry that kind of a wife, you get this kind of a result. They close their minds. I think we are not going to become as good a society as we were with each generation...This is the basic stock of success. If you don't have this, you can have the best human resources programme, but your human resource is poor.'


'We must encourage those who earn less than $200 per month and cannot afford to nurture and educate many children never to have more than two. We will regret the time lost if we do not now take the first tentative steps towards correcting a trend which can leave our society with a large number of the physically, intellectually and culturally anaemic.'

Twenty to thirty years later, we can see the effects culminating in one glorious swoop.
We did want children in the past of course, we just didn't want the stupid ones to breed.

Of course, when you have a high turnover in a company, the only solution is to keep on hiring, hire faster than the people can leave. Don't you just love corporate practices when they are employed in running a country?

Anonymous said...

PAP has still not got the message -

WE WANT OUR COUNTRY BACK!!!

Anonymous said...

"PAP has still not got the message -

WE WANT OUR COUNTRY BACK!!! "

Sure. Show your face first, and LKY and his ISA will make sure you have "your country back" ! LOL

Anonymous said...

And you are telling me all these new working migrants whose parents are farmers/low educated in cambodia, vietnam or philippines are all good stock?

Where exactly is the proof in the pudding, MOM?
Show me your definition and evidence of 'good quality'.

Like that sunxu? or like that Pinoy drummer with autism? or like that swiss banker or indonesian guy out of the 48men charged for underaged sex? or those aussie lads who beat up our taxi uncle and fled? I am SO convinced.

Anonymous said...

It is said that women & men in Singapore do not wish to have children.

The Gov machinery could easily reversed that:

MediaCorp
Straits Times
and even use
Jack Neo

to create adverts, storylines of parenthood. Why was this approach not considered?

There was an attempt by GCT.
But it was such a limp effort:

"Have more if you can afford it"

The fact is that we could not afford it anyhow!

Celebrate parenthood, motherhood and make it sexy..

You mean all the MBAs and the PHDs could not put humpty dumpty together?

It really is stupidity.

Anonymous said...

So let me get this straight..

Our planners said Stop at Two
Our planners said Three is better
Our planners now say Import is best

Our planners said Third World is stagnation
Our planners said First World we arrived
Our planners now say Third world wage in first world country is acceptable.

Our planners said Transport must be privatized
Our planners said Transport is world class
Our planners now say Transport shld be bailed, remain private, and below standard.


Our planners said Singaporeans daft
Our planners said Singaporeans 1st, not singaporeans only
Our planners now say PRs/Foreigners are important or we die

I have enough of their past track records and crystal ball gazing capability. This is a hopeless country run by hopeless bunch of automatons who are out to bleed us dry. Don't count on me, Singapore come August 9. Your new migrants will be there to celebrate and carry your balls while our sons are carrying the rifles.

Anonymous said...

"The choice is pitched as one of importing more immigrants or having more babies (thus laying the blame of the influx of foreigners on the population instead of the policymakers and government). "

It is simple why the voters are being blamed for the poor birth rates. It's because they're daft and won't rebut them! How could they rebut when the States Times won't print their views?

They're simply trying to shaft this policy up down your unwilling throats.

Anonymous said...

Why is the Wrokers' Party silent on this matter?

What are their thoughts on this?

Anonymous said...

So let me get this right. We're serving NS to protect these immigrants, PRs and foreigners?

Anonymous said...

So our income is taxed so that we could pay them to enjoy a millionaire lifestyle and tell us to shut up and make babies?

How many babies is MP Josephine Teo making?

Anonymous said...

The LKY-manufactured Singaporean:

Lives in a flat but doesn't own it nor get to keep it.

Owns a car but can't keep it. Have problems owning a car in the first place too.

Have flat but no money in CPF in old age as all used to pay for a flat that he doesn't own.


Fall sick but no money to pay for ill-health when Medisave is finished as hospital healthcare fees are exorbitant.

Work like a dog, somedays as cow or a horse; work like a prostitute but still no savings.

Can't start a family as cost of living too high and flat is too expensive.

Can't go work without standing and having to squeeze in the train.

Can't walk straight as there's foreigners and overcrowding everywhere.

Take 30 minutes to queue to pay for groceries at NTUC as too many foreigners and PRs in the queue.

Can't find a seat at a food outlet or mini restaurants as pinoys and PRCs have taken up all the seats. Be lucky to even get a seat.

Can't have a quiet and peaceful moment at the East Coast Park beach without some group of PRCs conversing loudly beside and a group of pinoys singing and this is 10 pm at the beach.

Can't find a job as a foreigner is cheaper to hire.

Serve NS and can't get a job after it as employer says we have no experience but hired a cheap foreigner instead.

When you go on a holiday, you have to queue behind a PR in the Singapore gate section as he is allowed to join you. So you wait behind the PR for your thumbprint.

When you go to polyclinic when you're sick, you haveto wait 2 hrs because of the queue of foreigners ahead of you.

Can't even speak your mind as it's a thought-controlled system.

Need to take a second bus to get to the interchange in the morning as the first bus was full of foreigners.

Cannot get opportunity at work place as boss says you're not around during ICT reservist training; so go to a foreign colleague.

Can't send children to primary 1 school near the flat as PRC got it first before me cos she is new citizen but born in China and never studied in a primary school here some more.

Can't get a school for kid cos so many foreigners in the ballot and they win by the luck of the draw.

At work, kana insulted by foreigners.

Can't wait at mrts without seeing foreign workers sitting and loitering at the stations and having picnic on grass patch.

Can't teach child good values while crossing the street cos foreigner cross the red light and in groups.

Grow up learning english and end speaking china mandarin.

Have to compete to get into uni with foreigners who don't even need to pass mandarin at o-level and still can get scholarship from government.

So many foreingers in MRT, the aircon becomes useless.

Not a citizen. Just an economic digit.

Government makes me feel like shit being born here.

Anonymous said...

I got a shock of my life when I heard the news yesterday. Govt is not bringing up fertility rate but importing more aging people known as new citizens. How does this help increasing the birth rate without putting my stress into the aging population? I saw a couple of new migrants being interviewed, and they look so old already. I suspect lucky is right to say PAP is not concerned about diluting Singaporeans in this island, they want more votes to support the next election, that is why PA and RC is very much involved in recruiting all these new immigrants into their cohort of PAP SUPPORTERS. FXXK THEM!

Anonymous said...

//Where exactly is the proof in the pudding, MOM?
Show me your definition and evidence of 'good quality'.//

Let me show you their quality and quantity -

1) Scholar sunxu who insulted singaporeans

2) Yishun triple murderer PRC Wang ZhiJian

3) PRC delivery boy Zhou Hou who cursed at malay uncle

4) Unknown PRC who demands no curry from neighbors.

5) Pinoy Brian Carillo who calls singaporeans sense of entitlement

6) Pinoy drummer cum autistic kid who plays drum at odd hours inconsiderately

7) Pinoy girl who turned Yishun HDB to budget motel

8) Swiss banker or Indonesian out of the 48men charged for underaged sex?

9) 3x Aussies who assaulted taxi driver & fled

10) Train vandaliser Oliver Fricker & the Lloyd Alexander the one who fled

11) PRC bus drivers who hit-&-run or run down people

12) PRC taxi hijacker who killed SAT airport cleaner

13) PRC man who refused to pay Indian taxi driver fare

14) PRC student JinXu who ask singapore to merge with china..

Wah..i think there must be many more unreported incidences where people don't want to bring it up for fear of trouble or hassle. So what if they have 5000 years of history, they can't even bring 5000 years of decorum and cultured manners on shore.

When Angela merkel of Germany said multi-culturism has failed, she is the one chiding the foreigners for not integrating and speaking their language. Here, you have MIW MPs who can't wait to come out to their defense, then tell singaporeans they don't have culture, and asked them to speak american english, and you wonder why we are such a mess !!

Why don't those National Talent Division folks show me whether they have a second home somewhere outside of Singapore? Or if their children are having foreign education instead, before you tell me that the quality in singapore is getting better by the days.

This national day will be a celebration of Chingapinomese Day. Thank you my rojak country. You won't be putting in $1.1b dollars to bail out broken trains and maintenance..you will be sinking cheaper, better and faster from here.

Visakan V said...

Well argued! My intuition tells me that almost all of the "undesirable qualities" about Singaporean behaviour that the government finds "worrying" are extended, unintended consequences of Government policy. We're kiasu and selfish? We weren't in the kampong days!

Individualistic, economic-growth-at-all-costs policies MADE us this way!

Of course, whatever got us into this mess, it's up to us to get out of it, government or not.

Anonymous said...

It would be really great if all true blue singaporeans do not turn up for the free tickets for NDP this Aug 9.

But as history has confirmed.. our home grown singaporeans who love anything free will happily Q up for the tickets and turn up with all their kids, families in their employer's pick up truck.

I am leaving town on that day too...
join me?

Anonymous said...

Why is TFR low?
a. Young people do not want kids
b. Singaporeans are not marrying
c. The new generation is materialistic
d. Globalisation has open many other options to the young
e. More Partying less Marrying
f. Loose moral values among the young

etc.

The gist is that it's everyone else's fault except the policy maker's.

And in any case, for them, there's the more expedient option of importing. Cheaper Betterer Fasterest!!

Anonymous said...

The report is a RED HERRING.

Fact, what locals are currently unhappy with is the large number of FOREIGNERS.

The report itself is quite convincing, and reasonable. Low TFR, so we need to import 25,000 new CITIZENS a year. That is actually alright and acceptable. (Before you throw stones at me, read on, I am on the same side.)

SingStats show that in 2004, 82% of the population is SC/PR. In 2011, it is only 73%. 2006-09 saw a huge influx of foreigners, causing the non-SC/PR population to rise from 7xx,000 in 2004 to 1.4m in 2011. That's almost double. In the same period, the SC/PR population rose from 3.4m to 3.8m, a mere 11%.

Singaporeans are unhappy with the foreigner issue, and in actual fact, most of these new foreigners are NON-RESIDENTS. The Govt can justify the new CITIZENS with the TFR, and like I said, this is acceptable. And I also believe those accepted as SC are "quality".

But it is a RED HERRING. Because what about the REAL issue? The extra 0.7m NON-RESIDENTS? The overcrowding? The "non-quality" non-residents? This report does not justify this at all. This has nothing to do with TFR at all.

If we mistakenly conflate FOREIGNER=NEW CITIZEN as it seems like this red herring is intended to, then supporters will think "Yes, they are right, we need more foreigners". Tell me what about the EXTRA 0.7mil non-residents!

Anonymous said...

"The ugly truth is this ....I don't think the PAP govt cares if the workforce is largely native Singaporeans or imported. Only ordinary Singaporeans care and worry about this. For the PAP, Singapore is Singapore Inc and they take a corporatist view of things."

Ohh... I couldn't have said it better myself!! That's what we get for a nation run by unimaginative economists.

The Pariah said...

APPLAUSE - Lucky Tan's concluding sentence!

You don't like PAP. You make the PAP leave. And NOT you leave Singapore.

ARE YOU DAFT?


Why should u give up your country becoz of 1 political party? Cut your own nose to spite your face - way to go, eh?

Lye Khuen Way said...

Woh! Why does the PM need a Facebook account?
If he is sincere about the ground conditions, he can read Lucky Tan's blog among a number of others.
Another great write-up.
I particularly like the part about getting in new citizens who are already close to their 30s who will in 30 odd years boost the silver generation......

Anonymous said...

I am writing from Melbourne.

Just in the span of a month, I had heard of 2 to 3 singaporean families who had recently migrated to melhourne. They are doctors and accountants together with their families...so Singaporeans are running away in droves bc of the stupid policies crafted by the incapable PAP who paid themselves to the tune of millions, but unable to deliver. Just look at the Lui Tuck Yew..hopeless MRT case..he should not be collecting his millions until he had solved the problem of the MRT saga.

Anonymous said...

This is common in many countries. Korean, Japan, why are we fussing when the rest of the countries ain't desperately importing Singaporeans, Malaysians and every other country's citizens. Worse, it's third world that we are hungry for. What sort of logic is that?

Anonymous said...

Hear this from the horse's mouth why women are not giving birth to the 2nd and third child...
*First, you have to work, 9am to 6pm, you can't go at 6pm, otherwise you'll be labelled "Clock-watcher"
* Leave at 6.30pm, take the MRT and pray it doesnt breakdown, 20mins gone.
* 6.50pm: Wait for the bus that you just miss by 2mins, another 15 to 20 mins past.
* 7.10pm: By the time you reach your door step at the fastest pace averagely. 7.20pm
* If you start to cook say 30 mins at the fastest. Close to 8pm
* By the time you finish eating with your family 8.30pm
* washing dishes 8.45pm
* Shower 9pm
* Study with kids
Imagine doing this day in day out, 5 days with work. It's not that we do not want kids, how do we have them when time is not on our side, finances isn't on our side
Lots of women out there have the same conclusion, if you can't manage all that, to be fair to the child, don't even have one.
The govt talks about pro-family, other countries have their summer and winter holidays. My overseas counter parts are happily going for 2 weeks summer breaks and such we have our pathethic public holidays.
How do we spend time with kids? Do we even have time for ourselves?
So before the govt even starts to throw loans of taxpayers' monies as incentives to promote FT to deliver more to make up numbers, ask yourselves, this is the true lifestyle we have and are living in. Does this really help elevate problems. It does not, it's just some cosmetic application, look good, feel great, but at the bottom of it all, the truth doesnt lie, numbers are telling.

Anonymous said...

I think a lot of you think its just ramping up immigration.
To me it looks like Scorched Earth.
PAP has made its move well ahead of 2016.
We have arrived at a critical juncture, speak up, make noise, criticise at their public feedback forums, if you still have any hope in you.
This will be your last chance to make your stand.

Anonymous said...

Well argued, Mr. Lucky Tan!

I've always find your aricles here interesting and sensible.

The simple truth is this:
The government stands to lose billions of revenue from the foreign workers' levy they have been collecting for years in the name of "the need for foreign talent".

The levy adds cost to employers. To overcome this additional cost, employers recover the levy from the workers in the form of making them pay upfront kickbacks, the sum of which is about 2years the worker's wages. When the work permit is renewed after the 2-year term expires, upfront kick-backs is collected from the workers again. This goes on until the worker returns home upon completion of his tenure of employment.

Contrary to popular belief, no agents are required for employers who directly employ the workers. All recruitments are done directly with MOM via the Labournet. Therefore, the belief that the agents are the one benefitting from the kick-backs is untrue.

In the case of recruitment of Bangladeshis, the norm is for the employer to get one of his existing Bangladeshi worker to establish the link with a former worker who has experience working in Singapore before to facilitate the recruitment.

This arrangement is commonly practised in the manufacturing, shipyard, cleaning, construction and other service sector industries.

Anonymous said...

Sorry, the upfront kick-backs is 2years the worker's levy instead of wages.

Anonymous said...

The Pariah said it right !!

You don't like PAP. You make the PAP leave. And NOT you (the citizen) leave Singapore.

BECAUSE THAT WOULD BE DAFT.
You will fall exactly right into their trap.
Especially those who will say 'if you don't like it here, then leave!". Implying there are many more from 3rd world they want/can bring in to replace you.

Instead...in true democracy, you make that PARTY LEAVE...or vote them out in large quantity. This is YOUR Country..not theirs..it does not belong to any single party, race or group. They are doing citizens cleansing because those people in the 2nd or 3rd or 4th layers down who benefits from the PAP regime, wants only the yes men/women....they want to keep their strings attached and benefits there..so the 40% can leave for all they care.

If you think foolishly that this Party can self-correct and change (just like a person can..) you are so wrong. The BoXiLai case in China Chongqing is a great example of what greed and power can do to people. Once the ringleader/party collapse, everything changes. That is the only way. The alternative to that, is blood revolution.

Anonymous said...

" people have fewer children because they cannot afford bigger better housing."

Correction needed: It's the Chinese people who are having fewer children and giving the govt a headache. The Malays and Indians are reproducing at a decent rate. How are they able to do it, living in the same crowded island and grappling with the same "high HDB prices"?

Anonymous said...

http://blogs.wsj.com/searealtime/2012/04/25/immigration-crucial-to-singapores-growth-govt-study/

Today's article on WSJ.

Anonymous said...

If PAP donate 99.99% of their total wealth in this world to charities immediately, join the local workforce to work the same kinds of jobs as ordinary Singaporeans and earn less than S$3000 per month salary without any bonus year in year out,

then we will definitely support PAP's policy to mass import tsunami of permanent residents and foreigners to Singapore.

Anonymous said...

They are addicted to the quick revenue from casinos.
They are addicted to cheap labour.
They are addicted to opium and they can't rehab.
You as voters need to send a loud and clear message to them..even though is painful.
You know that is the right thing to do...
Our society is sick and truly need a reform.
We still have time to bite the bullet and do it.
But we MUST tell them so!!!
Do not put up with their drug habit...they will go deeper into the abyss.
And is no point disparaging your other 60% ...
Work to get others to see your views, firmly & strongly and do not back down.
Unity is strength.

steve said...

http://blinkymummy.blogspot.com/2012/04/aging-population-vs-quality-immigrants.html

Another blogger on Immigration.

Anonymous said...

Please post this on Temasek Review!

Anonymous said...

" people have fewer children because they cannot afford bigger better housing."

Correction needed: It's the Chinese people who are having fewer children and giving the govt a headache. The Malays and Indians are reproducing at a decent rate. How are they able to do it, living in the same crowded island and grappling with the same "high HDB prices"?@@@@@@

Because the Chinese need and want face. They enjoy squeezing balls for money before doing anything worthwhile.

Anonymous said...

Suppose the reported figures are correct -- because of low birth rate the ratio of retiree to worker go from 1/6 to 1/3 in x years unless we import the ft

The outcome in x year will be the ratio is 1/6 consisting of 1/3 for the old citizen and 1/9 for new citizen. From the angle of tax revenue 1/6 whatever way is the same, from the family angle it is different unless there is a mass transfer program. Now go figure

Anonymous said...

"For the PAP, it doesn't matter if this economy runs and hums with your children when they grow up or the somebody from the Philippines, China or India."
Lucky Tan

Lucky Tan, please do not forget what ULTIMATELY MATTERS.

That is, PAP, being considered as the best available party by only 60% of voters, won 93% seats and become a strong government!

So Lucky Tan, do or achieve, not talk, what ULTIMATELY MATTERS. Like what PAP did.

I am the PAP said...

We have such creative talent within the Party & within Government.

I doubt we will see the last of them yet.

Say or do what you want but the results have already been assured.
90% of the house based on 50.01% of the votes.

I win, you lose.... again

Nicolas Wee said...

Its really difficult to have a child in singapore as there are a few stumbling blocks to overcome

1. A place to live (Parent & Child)
2. Cost/time to raise a child

1. 80% of Singaporeans require subsidized housing and in order to get a flat early, they will have to be married upon completion of the house.

With the introduction of BTO (build to order), young Singaporeans (below age 35) only register for a flat they can get in 3-4years time with no 100% success rate as we can see the demand for new flats highly outweighs the supply. When they do get their flats, they are close to 30 years of age and first child will arrive when their about 32 when they are financially stable. In order to achieve the desired TFR of 2.0 to 2.3, it will be easier for a singaporean couple to conceive a child when they are younger (preferbly 25yo), and with proper subsidies to combat the 2. COST TO RAISE A CHILD in place, they will be able to enjoy a comfortable life without compromising on the cost of raising 2 or more kids.

If the government allow a couple already or expecting a child to arrive to book an already completed house (no BTO bidding) without a ROM cert, I can see the chances of singaporeans becoming younger parents going up. The ROM can come later. We are a traditional country that frown upon couples that have kids before getting married but the modern society has shown otherwise, therefore the old ideas should be revised to accommodate the modern singaporean.

2. With both parents of the child working endlessly to make ends meet in the "high cost of living Singapore", help in these areas could encourage the parent to try for a 2nd or 3rd child.

If the government will step in to give provisions such as maid subsidy or subsidized early childhood care, these can tremendously help young singaporean couples to cope with the balancing act of working, family time and social life.

In Summary, in these modern times, we cannot adopt policies that have solve problems 20 years ago as the problems are not the same. This new batch of singaporeans are dealing with problems that never existed 20 years ago. I do not know what is the desired population for Singapore as it seems over crowded today due to emergency measures of importing foreign talent to sustain the singapore workforce. It would be extremely difficult to find the right balance again as everything is connected to everything in a country and simply changing a part of singapore will cause mayhem in another area. I hope our elected millionaire ministers can identify the root of the problem and solve it in time as there is a timebomb (the ratio of immigrants outweigh the Citizens) ticking.

Good luck!

Cheers, Nicolas

Anonymous said...

U have exposed the fallacy of the papist Leegime argument again. Keep it up.
I am more and more convince that the pap is now bankrupt of ideas. The pap elites have shits in their brains.

Anonymous said...

"I hope our elected millionaire ministers can identify the root of the problem and solve it in time as there is a timebomb (the ratio of immigrants outweigh the Citizens) ticking."
Nicolas 25/4/12 22:24

If there is a "timebomb", it would already have "exploded" in the GE 2011 outcome!

That PAP could still win with a comfortable 60% shows that the "timebomb" is ticking very, very slowly, or not at all. So don't hope for anything even in 2016.

Or many good men like Lucky Tan would have already come forward to contest against PAP in GE 2011!

Ask yourself, has the opposition grown any stronger since GE 2011? This alone already speaks volumes about the future trend.

So if it didn't happen in 2011, most likely it never will.

Anonymous said...

The problem is if we vote the PAP out, can we be sure that the new govt can solve the problem?

Why didn't the opposition parties bring out the need to spend more on increasing our birthrates during the parliament debate on our budget?

Anonymous said...

"Why didn't the opposition parties bring out the need to spend more on increasing our birthrates during the parliament debate on our budget?"
Anon 25/4/12 23:33

Hahahaha.

Because the opposition parties, or rather party, because only 1 party was voted in, just like PAP, are also the best available ones to be voted in.

I say best available, not best, OK?

Anonymous said...

"The problem is if we vote the PAP out, can we be sure that the new govt can solve the problem?"

Exactly lah. That's why I think the majority 60% are wise enough to think over this carefully before they vote.

And I believe PAP, being even wiser, also knows this.

ngpy said...

Thanks LKY for the poor foresight on the STOP AT TWO LAWS HE IMPLEMENTED. The bad decision has caused Singapore to be in this predicament of population problems, while trying to get QUICK FIX by importing citizens which is causing social problems to this Country with jobs, housing, medical, education, transportation, and the worst is causing immature aging

Anonymous said...

Why complain?

Ask your wives and daughters to fuck like a rabbit..

Surely the men have no problem in assisting and perhaps, prostitution will be a thing of the past? Kill "two birds"(stop prostitution and population growth) with your sperm. LoL

Anonymous said...

Like it or not, if Singapore does not bring in new citizens, in 25 years Singapore will be a nation with a much larger group of older citizens supported by a smaller and shrinking group of working age citizens. If the TFR goes to 2.1 overnight today, that won't produce any change for 20 years.

SiaOLiaO said...

My parents were immigrants from Malaysia and I was born in Singapore.
Never did I feel that Singapore was an adopted country. In fact, I love Singapore, so much so that everytime I hear our national anthem during the 9th of Aug, I will have tears rolling down my cheek. Such is my patriotism towards Singapore.

My point is Singapore should adopt an immigration policy that grants citizenship mainly to people who wants to start a family in Singapore and not who with the deepest pockets. I believe with their offspring, they will become naturalised Singapore citizens and love Singapore, just like me.

Anonymous said...

America's Secret Growth Weapon: Why Immigration Really, Really Matters - The Atlantic http://t.co/9dwCntBU

Anonymous said...

The answer is staring in their faces but they value money more than they value life. They value money, so the BTO scheme was crafted.

They value money, so no universal healthcare for its citizens.

They value money more than you retiring. So they hijacked your CPF at age 55. Why can the Malaysian government allow the Malaysians to have all their life savings back at age 55 and our government does not?

They value money. Not life.

The solution is there. But they want your money.

Otherwise, they would abolish the BTO scheme so that couples can immediately settle down when they tie the knot.

They are purposely doing this.

They are the cause of the falling birth ratess. Their policies.

And Singaporeans are to be blamed only insofar as they blindly vote for such policies.

The truth is Singaporeans are daft and selfish.

This is one of the reasons why many Singaporean men do not marry Singaporean women and vice versa.

This is one the reasons why foreigners don't want to marry Singaporeans. Why would you consider a daft and selfish mate who can't even effect any changes in a tiny island of 5 million?

They all know Singaporeans live a textbook life from cradle to grave.

The smart ones are living. Or have left.

Our ministers themselves will retire outside Singapore. And they are.

Cheers!

Anonymous said...

Insightful as always, Lucky.

Anonymous said...

CPF, dear fellows! CPF is the key to solving the great mysteries of the pappie logic! And ironically the logo of CPF is a key.

For we will not know how
but CPF but a double pronged weapon, aiding the people in saving for old age, yet drains the reserves and investment opportunities of the financially inclined elite!

And thus there is in lies the dependents and the contributingg population. Which is why 'they' bring forth so many 'foreign talents', issuing out PRs as freely as if they were air, as for all intents and purposes, PRs and Citizens are considered alike.

They both contribute to the great fund that shifts around seamlessly, greasing the mechanizations of high finance and aiding the growth of the mighty GDP, the flawless indicator of wealth and growth.

Anonymous said...

Define the term Singaporean:

A fool who insists on making the same mistake twice.

The greater fool is the one who falsely believes that this government will improve and things will change in Singapore. And they choose to stay and wait for that to happen.

After all these years, aren't you not already alert as to how this government does its work?

You'll be the world's greatest fool if you buy into their assertions that they are working for the people of Singapore.

Pack your bags.

This is not home. This is a factory. And you are its employee.

They don't value you having children for yourself and your family. They value you having children as an increase in their labour supply. More children, more CPF, more taxes, more profits.

Your child, just like you, are not valued for your humanity. But for your functional ability to add to their bottomline.

You're just a fucking digit.

So, one last time...get busy, get ready and pack your bags. Don't get too comfortable here. The PRs know that very well. They know they are not PERMANENT residents. They're just long-term cash-making residents.

Learn from the government very well and leave for work in other countries.

Leave this place to the foreigners. Don't smoke too much hope; knowing bloody well, things ain't going move in this country.

You move instead. Just don't waste time arguing over this. You already know what it is and how things are and how they will be.

Get moving.

Anonymous said...

slow scrolls... i saw lots of complains.. how come no one comes out a feasible idea?

Anonymous said...

Dear Mr Lucky Tan,

Thank you for a well researched article. We are all agreed that low TFR is a problem.

However, the solution is more elusive. Ask 10 people and you get 11 opinions.

I'll just touch on one point in your article: the graduate mum scheme. I would have voted against it (unfortunately votes were not taken). The problem then was two fold: low TFR and ultra-low FR of graduate mums. That policy was to address the ultra-low FR of graduate mums; result - it did not work.

I'll just quote Shakespeare's Henry V: "heavy the head that wears the crown..."

Tony

Anonymous said...

why hide behind a computer and complain when this is your chance to prove that you are truly, sincerely singaporean presenting your well thought, feasible idea to solve the issue that is going to face by our children. i'm sure lots of singaporean will salute u.

Anonymous said...

Let's not lump defence with FT. NS is every man's duty to the country irregardless of the population mix in Singapore.

What would women think of singapore men if men keep trying ways and means to avoid doing NS?

Our population is shrinking. Let's face it. We need FT to replace our shrinking population otherwise we'll lose our competitiveness.

Anonymous said...

Seriously, if after scrolling through the article, comments and links variously provided here, and looking at our past failures, the MIW is still unable to come up with solutions, then I really don't know why they are paid million dollars?

People/netizens take the time to write, share and pen their thoughts and feelings. If you still cannot synthesize the solution and connect the dots, then only one word - #epicfail !

You deserve to lose the crown, and the right to govern. In the past, singapore has leapfrogged every other 3rd world countries to become first world, at a breakneck speed so we can 'prove' to the world we have what it takes...actually, mostly to prove someone's egomaniac thirst that he is a visionary leader...so much of credits he has taken..and we're not going to argue. We could have arrived there in say 55 years time in a slower pace but we decide to do it in 40 years' time..at expense of TFR.. Now, they have learnt from every of the developed nations what to do, and there's nobody to learn from now. They need to chart the new grounds, and look at what happens? Where's the innovation?

Frankly, my grandparents/parents have given their best to this govt in the past. So have I..but at this point, I am not prepared to make some leader's son (at the anointed crown prince) look good on the world stage just because he's to prove he is better than the old man....we are not the means to his end..this is a country filled with millions of citizens..it has to evolved at a pace, organically and correctly. Not some cattle to plough the land so they can heap praises and get on international leader board for their own benefits. Fuck off, go do your job, and stop telling me to not complain. If you don't value our input, then keep churning your output. The people will decide come 2016.

Anonymous said...

Hey Lucky,

Great article!

Being a politician may be the furthest thing from your mind and I don't blame you hut one doesn't have to be a politician to speak. I love your passion to share your thoughts.

Anonymous said...

Did they get their demand/supply of SMRT/Buses riderships correct?

Did they get their hospitals/beds/medical & care professions correct?

Did they get their Educated graduates decades ago to meet the jobs demand of today's workforce correct?

Did they get CPF, retirement adequacy planning correct?

Did they get the demand/supply of HDB flats correct?

Did they get the labour productivity & wages correct?

So tell me, why do I have to believe that they will get this TFR, Pensioner/worker ratio and Immigration # correct?

Anything that can be asserted without proof, can be dismissed without proof.

Anonymous said...

So let me play this out. SG needs 25,000 of 'NEW CITIZENS' to keep workforce steady.

So assuming now we already have 2,500,000 million +/- of PRs & FTs that are on this island floating around, we are essentially looking at a 1% of conversion rate.
In other words, MOM really just need to focus on successfully converting 25k out of the 2.5m of foreign talents here. How is that difficult?

It can be a challenge only if, say (i don't what is the figure but will just pluck one for illustration) 50% of the 2.5m are really not interested. They have also been here longer than say > 10 years. So that will leave us with 1.25m of remainder pool to target. If this is a rotating or constantly refreshed pool, reaching a 2% conversion should really not be that difficult. The question is, is it enough?

And those who earlier lot of (50%) who have been here longer than 10yrs & have no desire to be a citizens, should this group be terminated for their residency, so that a fresher pool of talents get a chance to be considered? What are the real methodology of this Talent Division? Do they have an approach or is this pretty much a 'spray and pray' method? Since they can't define the conversion rate, how exactly are we to know if 1 or 2 or even 3m is going to be sufficient for them?!!!

The 25k new citizens seems palatable. It is the millions of PRs/FTs that most people have issue with, as they crowd out the resources.

Anonymous said...

It is the millions of PRs/FTs that most people have issue with, as they crowd out the resources."
Anon 26/4/12 11:51

...most people have issue with? Really?

Is 60% majority consider as most people?

If so, most people have no issue with voting PAP.

Anonymous said...

They will increase the prooperty tax by just send you a note saying the value has gone up if you own a piece of land property(for own stay} and force you to sell your proprerty to make way for more flats or sell to FT. WTH.

Anonymous said...

"People do not have more children because they cannot afford bigger better houses".
I do not believe this statement for a second!
Seriously, has this ever been the case in any society, anywhere in the world, ever?

Anonymous said...

Now, we have imported 1.2 million adult foreigners to help run the economy and give them citizens.

When we all grow old together, and have an even massive aging population in the coming years brought on by this boat loads of new citizens who are still now reproducing...we would have a bigger catstrophe then than the one we're in now!!!


In the government then going to continue importing new citizens to fix the ever growing old citizens?

That's impossible! Because our land size is limited and we're not expanding!!!

So, how are you going to fix this problem? There is a leakage on the ceiling and you're using your finger to cover the leaking hole??

Are you fucking kidding me???

How long is the government gonna place its finger to shut that leaking hole?

For as long, as they are serving their term in parliament? Then pass the buck to the next group???

We''ll be in bigger shit!

This is a quick fix solution...you are giving a quick antidote and the side effects will show later!

This is the same path they took with the two-child policy in the 70s. And being in a yes-man atmosphere, no one saying a word about this serious decision!!!

There is an elephant sitting in the living room and nobody says a word about it.

Bob said...

Dear Mr Lucky Tan,
Enjoy reading your article...

thanks you..

Anonymous said...

To Anon 26/4/12 12:49 --> its not the house alone. I've a friend who stop at 1 child in S'pore. After migrating to Australia, he's on his way to his 4th child. The expenses are all paid from bearing to delivering a child there. Education and medical for them are all free! On top of that, his wife gets $800/mth w/o working. I don't mind having a few more babies if this happens in S'pore!

Ng Eng Hou said...

Indeed there is a real blatant neglect to train our own people and use the quick-fix way to import people to grow the economy. Due to this neglect on own people, they turn around and said we will not talented to give excuse for their logic.

The wonderful thing is most people they don't feel it and even tolerated it. Most of us just let them have a free ride on us.

When is all these nonsenses going to stop?

Anonymous said...

I don't want to get into the local SG aspect, but just arguing against the Mind the Baby Gap article referenced, take a look at this:

http://shisaku.blogspot.com/2012/04/raising-children-in-land-of-rising-sun.html

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/136194/re-france-steyn-back-ya/mark-steyn

http://www.thelocal.se/15408/20081103/

Yello Tort said...

Please avoid digressing from the population subject to National Service. One can easily choose to think that Sinaporeans serve their two years to defend the foreigners and PRs. But NS is only one of the 5 pillars of Total Defence.

Other pillars include economic defence. These outsiders work here (they'd be booted out if they don't), and they pay the taxes whic is not equal to Singaporeans - they pay more.

The point is, everyone contributes in one way or another. It is difficult though to put a value on this subjective contribution.

So are we now contributing back by giving birth more? Some of the posts above mentioned of steps adopted by other countries. So our gov needs to bite the bullet and face the music. Do we have then the balls to sing to their ears?

Anonymous said...

Let me recunt all the doom-n-gloom

- If we don't have enough immigrants, we will die out
- if we don't pay low wages to workers, businesses will die/move out
- if we don't pay for own, healthcare cost will bankrupt country
- if we don't bail out smrt/sbs, they will go bankrupt
- if we don't bring in foreign students to compete, your children will be left behind
- if we don't bring in foreign talents, your wife/daughtes will become maids
- if we don't do NS, our country will be attacked and terrorized.
- if we don't vote for PAP, this country will sink and fail like humpty dumpty.

Gee, contrary to the oft-repeated chant that opposition are a negative destructive bunch of people, look who are the real 'doom-n-gloom' party here? They can't seem to offer you alternatives other than a black/white die/live kind of scenarios. Of course, fear and scare/scare tactics always work very well in the 60% who believe in those rhetorics.

Please MIW, either you are running our of ideas, or you fail big time to convince the electorate with facts, logic and argument to get our buy in. Whatever you do, the fear and scare tactics don't work on us anymore. You better not be talking through your ass.

Anonymous said...

How to induce Singaporeans to have more babies:
1. Free or cheap comprehensive public health care.
2. Free or cheap education up to tertiary level.

As a parent, these are the 2 main worries that keep me from having more children. And I think I speak for a lot of people.

Anonymous said...

Just to lighten the mood.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owI7DOeO_yg&feature=related

Anonymous said...

The trouble with the PAP is that they have not even embark on a scheme to redesign and create decent jobs for the elderlies to keep them gainfully and meanfully employed. They can only think of sucking the elderlies money away through their offer of studio apartment. It shows the PAP is not keen on taking care of the elderly Singaporean only thinking of how to get their money before they go to their grave. It is also because the PAP is using the elderlies CPF money in failed ventures overseas and count the losses as belonging to these poor old folks. Where is their integrity and morality?

Anonymous said...

My wife and I are not having children as they're too expensive. We decide to live as a couple as the situation in Singapore is getting too expensive for daily living, let alone having a child. How to support one when the wife won't be working? Everything is so expensive, so we chose to just travel.

Anonymous said...

Elderly or not, poor or not, PAP take care of them or not, these are not issues.

Why?

Because it is just a few of the many issues.

And despite so many issues, PAP can still get at least 60% votes every election!

So what is the issue if 60% say they are OK with PAP?

Anonymous said...

I don't know about you guys who still have faith and blind hope on this government and this country. It's a fucking island for crying out loud and it has already reached maximum utilisation of resources. It can expand its land; it is now expanding its labour through imports.

You are a global citizen in today's world. Stop staying in a country that doesn't give you air to breath and practises thought control. The grass is greener on the other side.

I know. I'm here already. Cheers! My poor short-changed Singaporeans.

People who have a better life are those who believe they can. Many have done so and are doing so.

Anonymous said...

The overcrowding in SIngaporea and in the trains pulls you down. It has a gravitation of its own.

It makes life more stressful.

Anonymous said...

The overcrowding in SIngaporea and in the trains pulls you down. It has a gravitation of its own.
You are infected by it.

Anonymous said...

http://www.hdb.gov.sg/fi10/fi10321p.nsf/w/BuyResaleFlatPrevMedianCOV?OpenDocument

Just look at how crazy the COV resale price index has gone up over the past 5 years.

It's madness.

Prices are now increasing at 0.6% in this first quarter of this year.

Although COV is dropping, the price of resale flat are increasing. But there are 3 times oversubscribed BTOs, that means 3 times singaporean couples cannot get a BTO even though the government are ramping up supplies!

That's why resale price of hdb flats are rising.

The government then peg the later oncoming BTO prices to be released later in the year to the market conditions of resale prices of hdb flats which are still increasing.

THose singapore couples who are buying the oncoming BTOs will be paying more than those released earlier.

Cheated for nothing.

It's OK. Can pay first, later no money to retire cos all CPF wipe out. THe government will blame you, not their fucking chee by policy.

Anonymous said...

Singapore is already inundated with foreigners now.

Basic infrastructure is bursting at the seams.

Health care, public transport, public housing, educational placing, JOBS and WAGES have all been impacted.

Our citizenship rights to the above must be protected by the State at all time in return for the allegiance and defence of the State in time of war.

This is not case here.

Anonymous said...

The hard truth I believe is that our low TFR rate is only true for majority Chinese & Indian races. I don't believe for a second that the Malays TFR rate is also low. Otherwise how to explain the fact that they are hardly importing any new Malays as PR or citizens ?

So I suspect the Govt would rather obscure this fact and therefore they can't improve on the financial incentives for more babies lest the Malays will procreate at a even faster rate.

Surely our Govt must have a hidden agenda for importing more Chinese or Indian immigrants, no ?

Anonymous said...

you guys are dick head!

Anonymous said...

there are singaporean benefitted from high cov.

Anonymous said...

Source: Wikipedia.

The Russian and world history scholar John M. Thompson describes the system of terror developed during Stalin's time as "puzzling"; surveying Russian history, he posits the height of the killings in the Soviet Union in the 1930s as a function of Soviet leader Joseph Stalin's personality – specifically contending that

"Attempts to explain this nightmarish period as Stalin's consolidation and reshaping of power, or the cleansing of the party as an evolving component of the Stalinist system somehow run amok, or as Stalin's coldly calculated effort to ready the country for war and ensure that he would have a free hand in foreign policy are, singly or even taken together, simply not convincing. Since Stalin destroyed both the records and most of the high officials involved, we will probably never know precisely what led to the purges and terror. Rational and policy considerations undoubtedly there were, but any persuasive explanation of this era must take account of Stalin's personality and outlook. Much of what occurred only makes sense if it stemmed in part from the disturbed mentality, pathological cruelty, and extreme paranoia of Stalin himself. Insecure, despite having established a dictatorship over the party and country, hostile and defensive when confronted with criticism of the excesses of collectivization and the sacrifices required by high-tempo industrialization, and deeply suspicious that past, present, and even yet unknown future opponents were plotting against him, Stalin began to act as a person beleaguered. He soon struck back at enemies, real or imaginary."

Anonymous said...

PAP told us that new immigrants are needed because of falling TFR.

It's total bullshit.

Why did they build not just 1, but 2 casinos on this tiny island?

Why do they increase the CPF minimum sum every now and then and why won't they return us our hard-earned monies at age 55?

It's all because our sovereign fund invested through Temasek Funds is totally kapot, totally broke. Singapore doesn't have enough money to pay back our hard-earned CPF when we reach age 55.

The foreign influx actually serves multiple purposes
1) keep daft singaporeans on their toes

2) increase the number of PAP votes

3) artifically inflate the HDB resale prices which will in turn prevent housing market meltdown

4) increase government coffers through increased ERP charges
and COE

5) increase GDP which will in turn increase ministers' salaries.

AvidReader said...

Very good writeup with facts proven.

JB Boy said...

Very good written article. For your info, i am a johor bahru boy. Recently, my friend's wife gave birth in the government hospital and stayed there for 1-2 days and the hospital bill came to only RM16. The services and medical procedure are of good quality at the government hospital she was in.

With such big subsidy from the government on the hospital fees, that's why many malaysia citizens (especially the malays) are willing to give birth despite their income may be less than 20% of their counterpart in Singapore. I know malay friends with income less than RM2k per month but had 3 to 4 kids per family.

Anonymous said...

Yes, they won't return your cpf money when your turn 55 is because they don't have any money to pay you back...all your cpf money has gone wher, huh?

Anonymous said...

They are worried 40% will increase.. hence 25000 new votes per year...

Anonymous said...

Sinkies. Please wake up.

Foreigners are not the problem.
The Pro Alien Party is the problem.

Let's not blame the foreigners just because we are too scared to blame and vote out the Pro Alien Party.

Anonymous said...

Heard from reliable sources that most of the Ministers have exit plans to run to other country should there be a regime change and there are plans to pass a constitution protecting pass PMs from investigation after regime change. Otherwards immunity

Anonymous said...

I think, by far, this entry is one of yours most poignant ever.

It is intriquing to note that while the people are unhappy with the ministers' greed for high salary admist contention with their incompetent governing of the economy, the incumbent has at the same started talking immediately about values education.

Values education is used as a buffer to the people who are upset with the ministers' high pay, etc..

Singapore is not right. Things will be clearer in time.

Anonymous said...

Be prepared for more immigration propaganda. The Propaganda argument is always zero immigrants versus the the flood of immigrants.

Then the blah blah about the ill effects of zero immigrants, cannot closed door to talent blah blah, then therefore flooding is justified.

Anonymous said...

This is a real sharp and detail analysis of this problem. However, these people just love to take the easy way out and remain hermit in their lalaland... what to do?

Anonymous said...

I don't see ministers productivity go up despite paying them millions, and still having to give them a massive pay rise.

As such, I was disguested when they fierecely opposed any plans to raise the pay of the low income workers, many of whom genuninely work long hours every day for low wages for most of their working lives.

You want to talk about productivity? Why not talk about your own first? Jerk offs!

Anonymous said...

I am still upset with the govenment and from being s strong pap supporter to a strong opposition supporter. I will continue to support opposition unless I can see major major changes and move back to the 1970 pap

Anonymous said...

yes of course

Anonymous said...

The Men of the Pro Alien Party:
Machine men, with machine minds and machine hearts.

Men who despise you,
enslave you,
who regiment your lives,
tell you what to do,
what to think and what to feel;
who drill you,
diet you,
treat you like cattle,
use you as cannon fodder.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5IvPIWzQcUY

Anonymous said...

LSL only cares about himself. Few politicians in this world care about the weak, sick and old. If they do, they were already murdered or eliminated.

Anonymous said...

You can gripe all you like but please give this a thought......if you want to see what Singapore will be like 20 yrs from now without PAP intervention now, just look no further than your neighbor Malaysia. If you are Chinese or Indian, be prepared to become second class citizen. If you think what you are going through now is very painful, wait till that day arrives. Then you will be reminiscing the good ole days, which is today, and I'll bet you that you won't be so critical about PAP trying to manipulate the population makeup now.

Anonymous said...

I have something else to add. Throughout human history, man has shown himself unwilling to be ruled or colonized by people from a stock other than his own no matter if the difference is ethnicity, cultural, religious, societal or political. As a case in point, we fought the British to gain independence. This despite the British colonialist being considered as an advanced power in terms of their government structure, technology, ideologies, education and health systems etc etc and also despite the fact that they have actually done some good to us by introducing modern civilization to us.

Well, just imagine being ruled by a race less progressive than you. At least now you are being ruled by Cambridge, Oxford and Imperial graduates. Would you like to be ruled by people with primary and secondary education?

J. Peters said...

This is shocking, it amazes me how many people this world can hold, and what problems can come from it. The tax rebates for people is crazy. I've never knew about this. Great post Lucky Tan.

Anonymous said...

I think that we Singaporeans should stop blaming the PAP for all the issues that Singapore had. How has PAP offended you? The government is clearly concerned about the proportion of locals that run our country, because they have the same insecurities of them leaving and returning to their home country. The cause of a low birth rate is our work culture, and the goal-driven nature of Singaporeans (which isnt a bad thing).

However, we need to accept the fact that with a dwindling population size, there will soon be no one to support the growth of our country.

And what on earth is wrong with the salaries of ministers? The underlying reason for it is to the attract the best talents, and ensure the abundance of these ministers such that there will be no acts of corruption. Look at other countries, search for statistics for the rate of corruption and you will see that the government, or the ministers that we have are deserving for the pay that they get. Tell me, which country has a high corruption rate, and stable economic growth at the same time?!

If you care enough for Singapore, stop putting the blame on PAP. The involvement of another party such as an opposition, will only slow down the progress of this small, 'resource-less' country. The anger that is spreading through social media is a reflection of insecurity and probably the unhappiness of the income disparity. But be sensible enough, regardless what PAP says or what other people says, our TFR needs to go up, foreign workers (whether high skilled or low skilled) will be necessary to fill in the unwanted jobs of Singaporeans.

I love Singapore. And I have no sort of allegiance with the government, because I'm a student. I am unhappy that so many Singaporeans are 'uniting' for the wrong reasons. The government is doing fine, but if we dont change our negative mindsets and promote a positive view of society, Singapore will collapse

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