Thursday, August 16, 2012

Fertility Rate Vs Home Prices...


The amount people have to pay for their homes relative to their income is inversely correlated with Total Fertility Rate (TFR).

51 comments:

Anonymous said...

This is true. We paid two to 6 times the actual cost of HDB flat. Perhaps someone should write an article on this.

Lye Khuen Way said...

Thanks,for giving some meat to the some six sense notions that we can now cite.

Still striving for more Growth, more wage disparity ? Yet asking why such low TFR ? Pathetic.

Anonymous said...

No amount of facts will prevent the Pro Alien Party from doing what it damn well wants.
They have an overwhelming parliamentary majority.
They cannot change.

Better focus time & effort on converting the 60% of your friends & relatives who voted for the Pro Alien Party.

Anonymous said...

Children are just God's way of punishing us for having sex.

What is all this big fuss over kids?

You mean the Pro Alien Party has not given you enough work & misery already?

Anonymous said...

The bloody PAP government could help increase births rates by abolishing reservists. This would give more family time and time for setting and consideration for a family. If the singaporean mens' time are spent on 2-2 1/2 NS plus reservists till fucking 40 years old, you're robbing them of time and youth. Why the fuck serve reservist huh? We in a fucking war is it? NS is enough.

Anonymous said...

Talent;good ideas;empathy; problem solving skills- they have all deserted the PAP 15 years ago.

What has PAP got? 2nd rate talent;yes-men;cantankerous arrogant men;men who is totally out of touch with the ground. Inbreeding is one of the major causes of these; So what if they have excellent academic results..proof: MBT.

Anonymous said...

Why even bother to solve PAP created problems? In any case, you can't without them coming down on you with the army, police force and judiciary.

Anonymous said...

agree with anon @ 22.21
so far the generals and admirals serving the familee are scholars with excellent academic results.
even HoChing was a president scholar and the pussy PM from first batch of SAF scholars.

but do any of the above scholars excel in sports at national level, captain their respective team ?

have you guys wondered about those with great academic results but on PM ( Pa, Ma )scholarship and somehow were also good sportsmen.
any of them join the PAP ?

Anonymous said...

That's why we say...educated idiots. The more education, generally, they become stupider, stupiderer and the stupiderest - with the stupiderest coming from the best university.

Anonymous said...

I guess we are all agreed.

This fertility problem is a PAP problem.
It is not a Singaporean problem.

Voting out the Pro Alien Party is the real Singaporean problem.
Solve this problem.
The rest of our other problems will vanish.

Anonymous said...

Voting out PAP and replaced with another type of self serving idiots? Please...

TAP said...

It seems the problem is clearly cost of living. Probably no amount of scolding and persuasion can increase the TFR to the minimum renewal level of 2.1.

Anonymous said...

So basically you need to be rich to have kids. Good, that let's off 90% of us.

Anonymous said...

Comparing Singapore and Hongkong with those Scandinavian countries? Don't you guys think it's like comparing apple and orange? :P I don't want to be racist, but Nordic people (esp. Nordic women) have genetically higher fertility rate compared to East Asian people. It'd be better if the comparison consists of Singapore, Hongkong, Taiwan, Mongolia, China PR, Korea Republic and DPR, Japan, etc.

Anonymous said...

Idiots

Anonymous said...

So now the Millionaire Ministers understand the problems.

And they will (ROFL) now reduce HDB prices to help boost the fertility rate.

Excuse me. I just saw a pig fly past my office window.

Anonymous said...

"The amount people have to pay for their homes relative to their income is inversely correlated with Total Fertility Rate (TFR)."
Lucky Tan

But at least 60% votes for PAP is a constant for 47 years. It does not correlate with anything what, tio bo?

Anonymous said...

So maybe the answer is to ride the Tiger ( of our artificially overinflated property assets ) , enjoy its rediculous price by cashing out , abandon all setimental notion of nationalism, loyalty to country & replace it with a selfish sence of survival & loyalty to yourself & family ......& get out .
Our forefathers were pioneers that made the sacrifice for us so maybe now its our turn , for our children.
Singapore has become like a public toilet of sorts for the world to come & go, to play , to make money , do their laundery....
Yes it has some good things for Singies, but at what cost.
What Rubbish the debate on stayers or quitters , loyalty or that we Stay & PAP to get out ?
Why should the elite ruling class & clans & families quit while they are ahead ( & they have always been ), if they get to continue creaming off the middle class & beyond .
Moreover most proverbial singaporean frogs are selfish to begin with anyways. Selfish for staying in their comfort zone however hot that boiling water has become and will thus condemn their children to the same fate under this regime.
Singaporeans are prisoners in their own homeland , a captured market brainwashed to the hilt . Deers frozen in the headlights of an oncoming train. Generations of slaves paying all sorts of hidden taxes like CPF , Inflation, Carbon Tax , OMV , COE , GST , PETROL TAX , LEVIES of all sorts & what do we get in return ?

Anonymous said...

"The limits of tyrants are defined by the endurance of the people they oppress."
Frederick Douglass

Singaporeans have the highest endurance;
- for pain inflicted on them
- for stupidity in their leeders

Pro Alien Party will rule forever.

http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/f/frederickd201580.html

Ng Eng Hou said...

One way or another, we're being kidnapped by the high housing prices. If the government really wants to do something to bring down prices to real affordable level to the masses, for sure there will be lots of protests as this will affect the prices of their existing houses. Just you see how people react when there are plans to put up healthcare centers for the old folks nearby - you see lots of protests. The main reason is they are worried that this will affect their house prices.

At the end of the day, for those existing homeowners, they have to ask themselves, are they willing to sacrifice their self-interest for the common good to help in increasing the nation fertility rate?

Anonymous said...

" ... healthcare centers for the old folks nearby - you see lots of protests. The main reason is they are worried that this will affect their house prices."

I don't trust the Shit Times report about the protest.
It's just to explain why the government is so far behind schedule to build old age facilities for the aged.

Ageing Singaporeans. This cannot. That cannot.
Ageing buses and MRT trains. Straight away can find 1-2 billion dollars to buy new buses and trains.

I would be very happy for an aged centre in my HDB void deck.
Makes it easier for my children to look after me in my old age.

Old age facilities, like shopping malls, will boost HDB prices

Anonymous said...

"World's richest country: Singapore"
- Wealth Report 2012, Knight Frank and Citi Private Bank

"Singapore is 'world's healthiest country'"
- Bloomberg ranking

See Singapore got health, got wealth.

Lucky Tan, what more do you want?


SlyFox said...

LKY has done it again, trying to use TFR as an excuse to shift the blame n responsibility for mass importing of foreigners to the citizens.

But think about it, even if we achieve TFR of 2.0, it merely maintain the population level, but the PAP government's plan is to achieve a population of 6 to 7 millions, so the mass importing of foreigners has nothing to do with low TFR.

It has everything to do with PAP's inability to sustain economic growth without grow in labour resource, and in desperation to remain in power .

Anonymous said...

Foreigners can win Olympic medals for us.

Wealthy foreigners can bring lots of money to Singapore.

Poor foreigners can bring lots of cheap labour to Singapore.

Because 60% can vote PAP to make all these happen.

Lucky Tan can blog, I can comment, you can scold, but what will happen?



Anonymous said...

The fertility problem is not a PAP or even a Singaporean problem. It is a CHINESE problem. Stop blaming the government or the system for Chinese reluctance to have more children.

Malays and Indians are also paying the same prices for HDB flats. If they can have more kids, why can't the Chinese? Can you tell me why, O Wise Lucky Tan?

Anonymous said...

"Lucky Tan can blog, I can comment, you can scold, but what will happen?"
Anon 17/8/12 13:29

Feel shiok, happy, sad, angry, helpless or whatever lah. That's all lah.

Anonymous said...

Jokes About Fertility & PAP Women
--------------------------------
Q. What do PAP women call Viagra?
A. Batteries.

Q. How does a PAP woman check her boyfriend for a high sperm count?
A. She checks to see if she has to chew before she swallows.

Anonymous said...

@ anon 13.19,
in other words, the best person to advertise Singapore got health, got wealth is LKY himself.
How about "spore the only country with no beggars" ?

@ anon 17/8 11.45
I second your idea of converting all HDB void decks into nursing homes cum aged centres. In fact, all HDB carparks relocated underground to free up more space.

Anonymous said...

"Malays and Indians are also paying the same prices for HDB flats. If they can have more kids, why can't the Chinese?"
Anon 17/8/12 13:31

Did LKY ever publicly ask or answer that question?

If not, why not? And if not, why you expect Lucky Tan to answer? For what use?

Anonymous said...

Protest - Old Age facilities in HDB void decks

When Singaporeans protest about immigration policies, did that stop the immigration?
No! No! No!

So what makes you think protest is stopping the government from building the old age facilities in void decks?
The HDB flats & void decks belongs to HDB.
The government can suka, suka build anything they want in the void deck, anytime they want.

They don't really want to build the old age facilities.
Or any social services for that matter.
But cannot say so.
Hence they are doing the wayang.
And blaming Singaporeans as usual.

Instant $1 billion to improve our old bus fleets.
But no instant $1 billion dollars for our old Singaporeans.

Anonymous said...

yes, i can attest to that. we worked out the sums before we decided that we could at most afford to have one kid, after deducting for home loan and setting aside retirement needs.

Anonymous said...

DPM Teo knows how to ask Employers to take the lead, why don't they take the lead? Look at how Sweden pays up to 65% of the absent-parent salaries so both their gender workforce can truly balance work/life/balance. To force every monetary and social decision on the shoulders of citizens are simply cowardly. They just want their cake and eat it!

For a start, I can already propose the following :

- Govt approach ALL the nordic/scandinavian companies based in Singapore to practice and adopt what they do in their home turf. If they are forthcoming, then the rest of the employers can hopefully step in further. The govt can give more generous tax break for example to encourage these companies.

- Subsequently, this opens up a whole new contract/part-time markets for maternity & working women and this will encourage more semi-retired/stayhome mum to get back into the work rotation. That is a win/win.

- But don't just think inside the box, and restrict raising children to married couples. How many matured single women who are professional/financial means to let them adopt or IVF if they so wish. This number are not small, and to hell with conventional views. If they would give this group more support, I am sure there will be takers.

- If you're prepared to bring in coastal migrants from china/india or developing nations, why don't you help our fellow low income families by giving them more support. To hell with the old outdated thinking that poor parents breed poor kids. How do you explain those 3rd world countries poor migrants whom you have no hesitation to bring in with red carpets rolled out to them?!

- Stop arguing for Growth-vs-No-growth proposal. People are fed up with this false dichotomy. IS a question whether this Govt is prepared to have 3 or 9 millions population, and I ask them to choose!! Which is it going to be? Your answer is as good as mine!

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444226904577561100020336384.html?mod=e2tw

les miserables said...

The problem with singaporeans is they want to change the ruling party but at the same time they do not want to see their HDB prices go down. PAP has successfully enslaved them to a piece of temporary worthless asset.

Anonymous said...

prist lah, lucky tan... how can you like dat compare??

we are unique in this world. there is only one singapore... so pls dun compare sg with other country on such issues, including ministars salary..

on the other hand, when we need to compare, we shld compare ourselves with other countries on issues where other ppl are lousier than sg! like mrt trains, security, crime, corruption etc etc.. oh corruption on the rise ah, opps..

Anonymous said...

"I would be happy to answer them but I noticed Lucky Tan avoided answering whether he thinks, and he is a qualified lawyer, whether home prices suggest that singaporeans are more well-off today and they are enjoying their 5Cs and making selfish decisions on not to have more babies. Could I have an answer?

Let’s look at the points that Lucky Tan makes. The motive: in each of the countries pointed out, there was a different circumstance – to not identify your own self. In each of those countries, Lucky Tan will accept, on the face of it, it wasn’t a housing price simpliciter. One case was different region, there were other cases where there was different culture. So in all these, the motive is to avoid one’s identity, so that’s neither here nor there.

As regards the fact that here there were two countries, if Lucky tan looks at the cases he's cited, these were situations where there has been more than one factor. So in that context, I ask her for the third time whether he is willing to answer, and he is capable of answering as a lawyer. All those factors he has identified are present in some of those countries. Can Lucky Tan identify a single country where on such circumstance, home prices has affected fertility rates? One country?

These questions are entirely capable of being answered, including the very last question I asked. If there is a country Lucky Tan knows, where on similar circumstances, home prices affect fertility rates, no cultural difference, the underlying factor is housing price simpliciter, no genetic difference, no regional difference, nothing else. housing price simpliciter, with a low fertility rate. Let me know if there is a country where some country suffered low fertility rate.

finally, I am glad to note that no allegations are being made against the govt, and that it is not being suggested in any way that govt made a wrong choice or a false choice in choosing to allow home prices to escalate. But the context of the questions certainly implicitly raised that possibility and because it is a serious possibility, I had to deal with it openly. That is what this House is for. But, I welcome Lucky Tan’s suggestion. I take it wholeheartedly, and I am happy to hear that no allegation whatsoever is being made against the govt, so we can all at least move on, on the basis that they exercise their discretion properly."

Lucky Tan, this will be the most probable answer to you. thank you.

Anonymous said...

LT is suggesting there is a correlation between population density vis-a-vis home prices' affecting fertility.

There is a correlation. Singapore is the obvious example. Your arguement as to whether it's a weak or strong correlation is another matter.

Anonymous said...

Countries that do much for its people are countries that want to safeguard their culture and way of life. This is something those societies recognise are important and they cherish.

Not in Singapore. We have a government whose cherish money out and out.

Anonymous said...

"The fertility problem is not a PAP or even a Singaporean problem. It is a CHINESE problem. Stop blaming the government or the system for Chinese reluctance to have more children.

Malays and Indians are also paying the same prices for HDB flats. If they can have more kids, why can't the Chinese? Can you tell me why, O Wise Lucky Tan?"

Nope. Indian's TFR are 1.09 and the Chinese is 1.08.

Only the Malays are having more babies but even then they are having lesser babies than they used to because of the cost of living.

PAP's 2 child policy is a serious problem.

We chinese just love our Geylang, batam, johor, hap chai and bangkok way too much lah.

We rather fuck young sexy cheebys than to fuck our own wives.

Anonymous said...

"We rather fuck young sexy cheebys than to fuck our own wives."

Actually I prefer fucking the Pro Alien Millionaires.
I will sacrifice my self respect for the greater good of Singapore

Anonymous said...

@anon 20.04,
"Malays and Indians are also paying the same prices for HDB flats. If they can have more kids, why can't the Chinese?"
Excellent point!

I surmise it has to do with a unique DNA called "kiasu."
This particular DNA is prevalent in Chinese blood and for some reason this DNA can be said to make a human put a price on everything. LOL

If this assumption is true, then bringing in more PRCs into Spore will only ensure this DNA is entrenched in all Chinese blood.

So the best solution is to encourage/promote inter marriages amongst the races. I will even go another step and say 'import the europeans for this purpose.'

ps: money can come from the 12$Billion defence budget.

Anonymous said...

I'd love to see a pretty blonde riding the old ashole to death.

Anonymous said...

"We rather fuck young sexy cheebys than to fuck our own wives. "

fucking is one thing.

fucking without condom and shooting the full load inside deep deep during ovulation period is another...

i believe no one is disputing that the former is happening prevalently.. i presume the issue/discussion is abt the latter...

Kojakbt said...

Correlation coefficients are calculated to be -0.95 and -0.96. For graphs, see:

http://www.tremeritus.com/2012/08/17/fertility-rate-vs-home-prices/"

Anonymous said...

"We rather fuck young sexy cheebys than to fuck our own wives. "

That's normal. Some of my friends use hypnotism on their husbands before love making.

No complain so far. I heard, an old couple, in their sixties, still making love like teenagers. They seem happy.

Anonymous said...

Btw, do you know how Jack Neo resolved his love for young vagina?

Religion. He look at Jesus and he keeps imagining Jesus is watching him so his penis now quite disciplined.

But I think because he can't afford to screw young vagina anymore otherwise George Yeo won't take his call in the middle of the night.

Anonymous said...

@anon 01.20
my friend has a slight variation, he uses hypnotism on his wife before making love with the maid. alternatively he lets his wife drink a love potion.
So far all three seem happy.

TokyoSingaporean said...

I must say your blog is probably setting up a spiral effect to the quality of debate and discussion that is happening in the blogosphere and netizen community.

Since your blog was written, I have observed that the quality of public discourse has improved these past 3 years.

We now see graphs, tables and research papers being annotated in the multitude of views that are netizens are commenting on.

Cheers!

Liat Lim said...

Your conclusion could be misleading.
By introducing another factor, Free Education and Healthcare, I get the conclusion that Home Price relative to Income is actually not significant at 95% confidence level. The formula is:
Fertility Rate = 1.56 +0.5 FreeEdc - 0.02 HomePrice
Free education and healthcare is more important than home price relative to income ratio.
See http://mind-value.blogspot.sg/2012/08/fooling-ourselves-and-others-with-stats.html

Anonymous said...

Yes, i agree with Tokyo Singaporean. The quality of debate has improved since Lucky Tan's blog has been around..

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