Saturday, August 18, 2012

Fertility vs Housing Prices .....Part 2

Part 1 shown below. Some people complain not very rigorous and the small sample size of a few selected countries..

Now for part 2 (thanks to a comment in TRE that lead to this research paper).

"This article extends a standard Beckerian model of fertility behavior to formulate the effect of house price (HP) on fertility. The simple model predicts a negative effect of HP on the number of children for a representative household not only through the income effect but also through the compensated substitution effect. The prediction is confirmed by a cointegration analysis applied to the annual data at the aggregate level covering the period from 1971 to 2005 in Hong Kong. It is found that a 1% increase in HP is significantly related to a 0.45% decrease in total fertility rates (TFRs), which is robust in sensitivity tests with an alternative model specification and alternative measures of TFRs. This implies that high HP inflation can account for about 65% of the fertility decrease in Hong Kong in the past four decades." ("JEL" J13, J11, C32) Copyright (c) 2009 Western Economic Association International".[Link[


You can go through the paper yourself but I would think it is all common sense. If housing cost is high, couples delay marriage and having children because of the heavier financial burden of owning a home. Expensive homes mean that couples buy smaller homes to keep their finances manageable. You have small home, you tend to have fewer children because it is uncomfortable to pack too many people in a small home. Expensive homes means one has to service a larger mortgage stretched and that reduces the financial resources of married couples. In short, higher debt ...smaller homes, higher financial burdens ...all lead to lower fertility in a developed country.

So what has been driving up home prices? The massive influx of people from China and India. What do some of leaders tell us is the solution for our low fertility - import more people to keep the economy growing. This will put Singapore and Singaporeans in a vicious cycle:


Why are the same politicians who are willing to spend $10B a year on defense (and maintain this high spending) also asking us to adopt a solution that will shrink the core of our local born population? At the end of the day, what are we actually defending if we are not defending the local population? Given the environment we are in - neighboring countries highly dependent on global trade hence compelled to comply with international norms of behavior - isn't the biggest threat to the future of Singaporeans this vicious cycle they will to put us in?

In an earlier post discussing solutions for our shrinking population, many of the things that need to be done for housing, healthcare and transport to improve our fertility rate are also things we need to do to improve the quality of life of ordinary Singaporeans. We have the financial resources to do all this - what is needed is the political will to make changes and reallocate our national budget to take us out of this vicious cycle.

101 comments:

Anonymous said...

can't produce, never mind, import loh

Anonymous said...

Cheaper, Better, Faster

Anonymous said...

Lucky, it is $12 billion this year. Go check the budget. The $2 bil a year difference is a lot. It means abt a 50% increase in healthcare budget.

There is another reason why we have high property prices and it is because we don't have an independent central bank unlike most of the developed countries.

These countries learnt the hard way that you need a professional economists in central banks to increase interest rates and reduce monetary supply to prevent asset bubbles from developing. Essentially to take away the punch bowl when the party gets too hot. Else, the hangover for many, after the party will be really painful.

In Singapore, we have not increased interest rates unlike China and Australia in the last years. What is worse, credit is too easily available. All you need is to go to a shopping centre and there are so many banks peddling credit cards that comes an overdraft facility.

The system of compensation for our ministers may have something to do with it because their bonus is tied to GDP growth. This means that it is not in their interest to modify our economic model to one where interest rate can be used as a tool to control demand and inflation. In short, to bring down GDP when the market is overheating!

Lye Khuen Way said...

Just not too sure if all the talents, home-grown variety in the Govt and that include the Civil Service were not aware of what Lucky Tan has known and dug up?

That cannot be, as one senior statesman would have said.

So there must be a hidden agenda for this relentless pursuit of Growth /GDP and more immigrants.

Dare I say, to boost their re-election chances?

Anonymous said...

Why "willing to spend $10B a year on defense (and maintain this high spending)" can never ever be reduced?

A captain salary is typically about S$8000 a month, NOT INCLUDING employer CPF.

Above the rank of Captain, although there are less Warrant officers, Majors, Colonels, Generals, they are earning exponentially higher salary than the salary of Captains.

Below the rank of Captain, there are Lieutenants, Staff Sergeants, Sergeants, Corporals who are earning less salary than the salary of Captains but there are more of these peoples.

So, on the average, the typical salary of a regular soldier is S$8000 a month.

It is estimated that there are 10000 regular soldiers here.

The total amount of salary paid to 10000 regular soldiers in a month is
10000 X S$8000 = S$80,000,000

The total amount of salary paid to the 10000 regular soldiers in a year is
12 X S$80,000,000 = S$960,000,000

Add another 4 months of bonus and 2 month of allowance and various appointment pay to these 10000 regular soldiers basic salaries, which is equivalent to
6 X S$80,000,000 = S$480,000,000

The total income earned by the 10000 regular soldiers in one year is
S$960,000,000 + S$480,000,000
= S$1,440,000,000
= 1.44 billion Singapore dollars

A regular soldier, after serving fully the 6 to 7 years of bonds, typically receive another 10% to 15% of their total income they have received in 6 to 7 years.
Let's say about 8% of the 10000 regular soldiers leave the service every year after serving the full bonds,
this works out to be another
0.08 X 10000 X 0.125 X 6.5 X 12 X S$8000 = S$62,400,000

Overall, the total payout to all the 10000 regular soldiers only, EXCLUDING employer CPF, in one year is
S$1,440,000,000 + S$62,400,000
=S$1,502,400,000
= 1.5024 billion Singapore dollars

Consider that the median salary, INCLUDING employer CPF contribution, of Singaporean is only $2900 a month,
these 10000 regular soldiers are really earning very much higher than more than 95% of the Singaporeans.

With the understanding of the high payout to the regular soldiers,
how is PAP going to pay these super high income soldiers if the defense spending is cut?
So, now you should know why the S$10 billion a year spending on defense can never ever be reduced.

Anonymous said...

Fertility vs Housing Prices (or overall afforability).

Generally, a more educated society (from a more advanced country) tend to have fewer children (concentrated and more quality care) - also they are able to discern / see through the intricacies of their surrounding environment better (support system & policies) affecting their overall personal mathematics (both tangible & intangible) of bringing up a family and children.

The whole environment must be condusive & affordable in bringing up children & family. Orelse why bother to give lives (make babies) if you know that they are going to be screwed over the long term judging from how you are being screwed currently.


Anonymous said...

"At the end of the day, what are we actually defending if we are not defending the local population? "

Defending the expensive properties of the rich?

Anonymous said...

"...isn't the biggest threat to the future of Singaporeans this vicious cycle they will to put us in? "

Hence, the biggest threat to Singaporeans is the Pro Alien Party?

Anonymous said...

Lucky, on the ground we all can see the problem that u pointed out. No need research to back it up. Knn don't know why they can not see it. I guess that they are in the ivory tower.

Anonymous said...

" ...what is needed is the political will to make changes and reallocate our national budget to take us out of this vicious cycle. "

Create a vicious cycle ---> so Sinkies will panic ---> so Sinkies will vote Pro Alien Party

Anonymous said...

"on the ground we all can see the problem that u pointed out. No need research to back it up. Knn don't know why they can not see it. I guess that they are in the ivory tower."

Most likely, they are able to see it (with the benefits of hindsight).

Maybe it has reached a point that "they will be damned if they do it and they will also damned if they don't do it" as the benefits and risks (with high costs) have already been exchanged / locked in among the 'contracted' parties and any sudden reversal or U-turn will create any new layer of huge happiness. This is how vision-minded and long-term as they themselves call it that they are now getting into, ahem with the rest of us in tow or should I say at the expense of many.

Anonymous said...

The needs of the few elites outweigh the needs of the many Singaporeans

Anonymous said...

The elites own multiple properties. It is not in their interest to see property prices coming down.

Anonymous said...

Is Lucky Tan another resident idiot or what?

Shawn Koh said...

If Singaporeans do not produce enough babies, should they import babies? Will foreigners not get old too? Will this just not create more problems for the future, beside causing Singaporeans to have less babies?

These "scholars" and "highly educated" ministers are not stupid people, there is always someone gaining from all these. Look at who own the land, who manages the sovereign wealth and why there is no transparency on CPF money and reserves.

Anonymous said...

"At the end of the day, what are we actually defending if we are not defending the local population?"
Lucky Tan

Alamak Lucky Tan, why you so naive?

With only local population and without PRs and foreigners, you think Singapore can survive hah?

So of course must also defend PRs and foreigners in Singapore lah, because we depend on them for survival what, tio bo?

And of course if I were PAP, it's politically stupid to say in this way lah even though it's a reality. Only commentators like me can say it for the naive.

And the 60% who voted PAP are definitely not naive!

Anonymous said...

"...So, on the average, the typical salary of a regular soldier is S$8000 a month...

...Consider that the median salary, INCLUDING employer CPF contribution, of Singaporean is only $2900 a month,
these 10000 regular soldiers are really earning very much higher than more than 95% of the Singaporeans."
Anon 18/8/12 08:54

Can can any insiders (regulars) verify what the Anon above say is true?

Or is he exaggerating 50%, 60%, 100% or what not %?

Anonymous said...

Captains drawing $8000 per month?

Senior Teachers in Primary Schools earning $9000 per month? (mentioned in an earlier post)

Wah lau eh, I work in the private sector (not GLC linked) really underpaid man. Maybe kena undercut by lots of cheap foreign talents!

Anonymous said...

Makes a lot of sense Lucky.

Expensive home -> buy smaller home -> less space to have more children!

May I add...

Expensive cost of living -> less cash to feed bigger families!

No need to wait for scholars to figure that out.

Anonymous said...

I think it's generally true that even for middle and lower level staff in govt and govt related sectors, they are much better paid than those in the private sector, which relies a lot on foreign talents.

And govt and govt related companies are the among the biggest players in the economy, which means that many people (perhaps even majority voters) depend on it for their ricebowl.

So in this context, one should roughly understand how the 60% who voted PAP come about.

Anonymous said...

I'm ok with the logic behind the correlation between high living cost and lower fertility rate... What irks me is the constant subjective and downright incorrect assumption that foreigners are driving home prices up. It is inaccurate and inflammatory. Other more critical factors are at play. Homework first, my friend...

Peter Mak said...

To Anon @ 10:48 above,

Just use your common sense. I will help you do so below.

Due to the unprecedented numbers of foreigners being let in by the PAP, demand is driven up without an increase in supply for a extended period of time (more flats are being built now, although it remains to be seen the extent to which this can remedy the damage already done).

Hence, prices for property (regardless of whether these are rental or sale prices) will certainly increase due to the over-demand and undersupply distorting the market.

We Luv Life said...

Dear Lucky Tan

I created that comparison between SG,HK and Scandinavia as a basis for discussion. Thank you for posting it on you website and expanding on it. It is good to see the many interesting points brought up by yourself and your readers.

It was never my intention to show any direct causation between the figures, but to open up further investigation into this by common Singaporeans. Thank you once again for making this possible.

Cheers

Anonymous said...

If the younger generation mostly vote for opposition and new immigrants vote for PAP, what do you think PAP would do?

Shove more foreigners in and give them citizenship! Now the vote percentage has fallen to 60%, they are fighting for their lives..

There would be no doubt this 5 years would be a spike is Singapore citizenship awarded

Lucky Tan said...

we. luv life,

correlation does. not imply causal relationship between. the two..it just hints at the possibility. For example the underlying reasons. for housing. price increase e.g. low interest rates can also cause. food prices, medical. cost to go up so it can become. hard to separate cause. and effect. what we can say for. sure. is high cost of housing definitely. does. not help. the situation we are in today

Anonymous said...

From the brompton bike saga, it show the main stream media cannot be trusted to give fair coverage to issues..

Immigration on Main Stream Media will mostly be PAP's point of view..No point joining their illusory "conversation"

Anonymous said...

The average household size in Afghanistan is 7-8 persons while the average household Income there is only around US$300. Therefore cost of living cannot be the main reason. I think the main reason for the low birthrate is the lifestyle choice and cultural value. Please do proper a sociological research with facts and evidence before you conclude your answer to economic factor. Yes, economic factor is important, however there are many other factors at play also.

For God sake, please don’t always use cutting defense as your favorite solution. We should explore other solutions like increasing GST Tax rate and etc.
If without a strong defense, I think Malaysian might had already cut our Johor water supply long time ago during Mahathir time

Anonymous said...

Dont forget staffs in DSTA and DSO are known to be overpaid too.
5-6 mths total bonus even during last crisis period.


Anonymous said...

@anon 13.15
there are 101 things Dr M and/or our southern neighbour can do without firing a single shot to make your HDB become $10 psf.

diverting a few billion from the defence budget is one solution, it is from the best source.

if your generals and admirals think they can play war games to defend a tiny island, i say without shame they have been indulging in group masturbation. period.

i don't make such claims unless i understand alot more than you.
let me ask you a few direct questions. which is our first line of defence ? next question, where can the enemy retreat to and regroup ? one for the road. can we do the same ?
seriously, i have many many more for you but it will be digressing from the main topic.

Anonymous said...

"The system of compensation for our ministers may have something to do with it because their bonus is tied to GDP growth. This means that it is not in their interest to modify our economic model to one where interest rate can be used as a tool to control demand and inflation. In short, to bring down GDP when the market is overheating!"

That is why many Singaporeans feel that our team of PAP Ministers are a self-serving bunch.

Anonymous said...

"Why?"
S'poreans have to ask themselve why they allow the govt to do that to them too.

Anonymous said...

Anon@13.15

You r partially right. When income is v low like afghanistan, a logical choice is to have more children to help out in the farm, work, etc to have a better standard of living. Pass a certain stage of economic devt and cost of living does matter. Ask yourself, if in the extreme case where the average Singaporean family can only live in a shoebox unit, can how children do u think that they want to have?

And Malaysia is always used as a bogeyman to justify high defense expenditure. The question is why spend $12 bil when $8 bil a few years ago was able to keep the peace!

Anonymous said...

Shld add, on top of defense, why is govt trying to play the property market too.

Anonymous said...

Many Singaporean males knew that they are stupid to defend the livelihood of the foreigners, the power enjoyed by the PAP elites as well the multiple properties they owned in Singapore.

What to do? It is not worth dying to defend the only pigeon-hole flat most Singaporeans can probably afford or the stressful, fast-paced work-life they are subjected to, to pay for their tiny flats with no hope of ever retiring from work as all the cpf will probably be depleted to pay for their flat by the time they reach retirement age. They have no choice.

Anonymous said...

New immigrants are not stupid.

They are learning very rapidly from Sinkies and the internet.

They know that once they become Singaporeans, they will also become exploited like the Sinkies.

patriot said...

It is oni fair for oneself to struggle and fight for survival. Since one is aredi having to fight and struggle to survive, it simply does not make sense to make new life to complicate ones' living nor to go and protect others.

patriot

Anonymous said...

It makes me vomit.
If I have children.
My children will have to kow tow to the MIW's children.
And get bullied.
Just like Sylvia Lim got bullied.

Anonymous said...

"Why are the same politicians who are willing to spend $10B a year on defense (and maintain this high spending) also asking us to adopt a solution that will shrink the core of our local born population?"

This remark of yours really nailed the coffin on this matter. Poignant point.

Anonymous said...

Mr. Tan, you said: "At the end of the day, what are we actually defending if we are not defending the local population?"

The answer is clear but I'm not sure if you can stomach it. I had mentioned about it some months back when you wrote along the same lines.

We don't serve NS to defend the country. We serve NS to protect the assets of the rich people and our government in this country.

What is there to defend when we sold Senoko power station and another one in Jurong to foreign companies?

How do you defend a country when your energy resources are not in your own hands?

They are still sleeping on the jobs. NE MRT broke down and I was late again. This time my boss told me that I should not give that as a reason as he told me it's an excuse!!!

Anonymous said...

"Anonymous said...
It makes me vomit.
If I have children.
My children will have to kow tow to the MIW's children.
And get bullied.
Just like Sylvia Lim got bullied.

18/8/12 18:40"

It's the 60.1% who are the really bullies who hide behind covers of hypocrisy and secrecy. They are complicit in their support of bullying other singaporeans who do not share alternatives which are better for singapore. This 60.1% are giving strength to our government to condescend and patronise fellow singaporeans.

Shame on some of you 60.1%. I don't know what kind of values thei parents brought them up with. Prolly blind kiasuism and kiasism.

Anonymous said...

But 60% of them are your friends and relatives.
Will you help to convert at least one of them into an Opposition voter?

Anonymous said...

without doubt, boasting population number is the govt's attempt to sell more land to finance their losses in SWF.

Anonymous said...

Why so many people here don't dare to use real names huh? All these people have the same name as me ah? Very strange hor?

We Luv Life said...

"correlation does. not imply causal relationship between. the two..it just hints at the possibility. For example the underlying reasons. for housing. price increase e.g. low interest rates can also cause. food prices, medical. cost to go up so it can become. hard to separate cause. and effect. what we can say for. sure. is high cost of housing definitely. does. not help. the situation we are in today"

Yes, that is why I specifically mentioned that it is not my intention to show any causality before the indicators. Readers should be do well to take note of them when digesting the information.

Anonymous said...

"...where can the enemy retreat to and regroup ? one for the road. can we do the same ?.."
Anonymous 18/8/12 14:18

Thats why Perth has a little Ang Moh Kio there.
We also have Brunei, Thailand, India
detachments that provide back up.

No, there is no retreat. ( except that the elites will all be in Perth or Adelaide.

You see, the ang moh is still your best bet. China is not available and Taiwan consider us as Pih Sai.

So the first line of defence is:

Prostitute ourselves and

1.allow or neighbours to drive their polluting trucks, lorries, motorbikes.

2.Allow criminals to deposit money here and seek medical treatment under the pretence of business.

3. allow as many of the potential enemy to enter and work here.
Would you bomb your own citizens?
( I know our goohmin will, they have done that already in many ways)

Anonymous said...

Sooner, foreign property investors will be reluctant to pay higher prices w/o lower risk premium. Sg rulers relying on stability via sg'rean serving NS and Gurkhas presence as selling point may not be enough as all knows both are not battle tested and the latter become localised to peacetime condition. Foreigner buyers of assets and who parked money here may be helping cover redemption of CPF withdrawal even as rulers try to stretch out the period. They can only increase the GST so much for now, COE which becomes the wild card of choice to generate money may hit its limit. As for itaxes, they can't raise workers' income tax w/o justifying similar increases of corporate learning, Sg need to rely on influx of foreigners' buying asset and high defence spending become its display of ensuring stability.

Anonymous said...

//What irks me is the constant subjective and downright incorrect assumption that foreigners are driving home prices up. It is inaccurate and inflammatory.//

Do some mental experiment.

Demand vs supply.

Assumming only 3m local population vs 3 million houses. What would be the results.

Assuming only 3m local population vs 6 million houses. What would be the results.

Assuming 3m local population + 3m foreigners vs 3 million houses. What is the result.

Assuming 3m local population + 3 million foreigners vs 3 million houses. What would the result.

Last of all, the mother of all experiments, ban all foreigners from owning any properties and now assume that we have 3 million locals vs 1 million houses and would be the result.

Of course technically, we may say that foreigners do not cause housing prices to go up - simply because we cause it ourselves because we allow it to happen vis a vis the influx, on the supply of units and the pricing (base land price).

Anonymous said...

When you are sick, it's good you take medicine. Of course there are some bad side effects from the medicine.

Same thing for foreigners in Singapore lah.

If Singapore don't take in foreigners, the country will be sick.

Of course just like medicine, there will be some bad side effects lah, eg housing become more expensive, etc etc.

Anonymous said...

"Yes, that is why I specifically mentioned that it is not my intention to show any causality before the indicators. Readers should be do well to take note of them when digesting the information."

I wonder why this useful lesson is not dispensed in the mainstream media for people to take note on all information before they are digested.

Anonymous said...

Anon 19/8/12 13:05

Very good analogy. Now I understand and will accept foreigners and vote PAP next election.

Anonymous said...

"If Singapore don't take in foreigners, the country will be sick.

Of course just like medicine, there will be some bad side effects lah, eg housing become more expensive, etc etc."

Your medicine analogy is apt. Just hope that it is not the wrong type of medicine given or the needless overdose.

Doctors and nurses do make mistake. Because one wrong medicine or overdose will undo the many times of correct medication that you have taken in the past.

Anonymous said...

Anon 19/8/12 13:08

You will soon be replaced by foreigners and become jobless. Foreigners laugh at you for being so stupid.

Anonymous said...

It's funny how countries focus on foreigners when they have internal problems...which is not really the case of SG .

SG people seems to be more and more focus on foreigners.

Your article is great but you should extend a little bit your space of analysis.

Firstly, It's true that housing prices is increased by foreigners.

But only them ?

Obviously not, when revenues of the 10% richest part of the population are so high you can't expect the gap to reduce.
In scandinavian countries taxes are so high that gap between 10% richest and 10% poorest is very small... therefore the price difference on the market is also small.



Secondly, why so many foreigners in SG ?

The answer is actually quite simple, economic motive.

SG has a very high cost of living but one of the lowest productivity in the world.

Therefore two possible solution:

-Be able to trained higly skilled workers

or

-Reduce the cost of work with lot of cheap foreign workers.

You know what kind of foreigners you mainly have, so you know what is the situation of SG

Anonymous said...

Pretend Action Party = cause of high property prices.

not foreigners.

Anonymous said...

The Government is just trying to fool the people with all the lame reasons as to why people do not have children, and providing half hearted solutions which they know will never work.

I agree it is just plain common sense for educated and sensible people not wishing to have children because of everything linked to cost of living and affordability, particularly housing, healthcare and education.

But to pin down the reasons for low fertility to the three primary causes would warrant a U-turn of present policies and that means the PAP had all the decades been barking up the wrong tree. We know they will never admit mistakes. The great leader's reputation and legacy is not to be tarnished at this stage.

So, either the Government is not serious about changing mindsets about fertility by tackling the cost of living issues, or they are just hell bent on using this excuse to let in more foreigners just to keep on growing the economy. But, however they want it, population growth cannot be infinite, considering our size.

Anonymous said...

Hell bent on growing the economy is just an excuse to change the demographics to achieve the Leeders' dream of consolidating Kingdom of Lanfang.

Anonymous said...

PAP will still ask you to have more babies lah, even though you all die die don't want to. After all nothing to lose by asking, right?

OK lah, if you don't want to have more babies, then thanks to the 60%, PAP will import more foreign talents lah, 2nd, 3rd, 4th class or what not class never mind as long as they are willing to come.

And thanks also to the GRC system so that 60% votes will give 93% seats so as to have a strong PAP govt lah. And opposition, even if got 40% votes, only 7% seats lah.

And Lucky Tan carry on blogging lah.

Anonymous said...

Let it be lah.

Anonymous said...

So be it lah. LPPL lah.

Anonymous said...

Lucky

Please remember that the PAP government is still very much influenced by one very old man.

This old man believes that only people with high IQ should produce intelligent babies,in fact he had incentive for not so high IQ citizens not to produce so much.

So the problem is really to encourage high fertility among the group of successful citizens,for them,higher housing prices are not a problem,in fact,most of them benefited from this trend.

They know the solution.

Anonymous said...

"...to encourage high fertility among the group of successful citizens..."
Anon 20/8/12 10:37

Of course lah. But this type of thing govt cannot publicly say out one what. Or make into law what.

Or else how to win over 60%, tio bo? Not all the 60% are successful what, you know.

Anonymous said...

Anon 20/8/12 10:55

Yes agree with you.
But high flyers are also very clever,the solution is to CON,how else to get 60% support or more?
You can see for yourself that some very intelligent people also kena CON liao!read the blogs.

Anonymous said...

> Why are the same politicians who are willing to spend $10B a year on defense (and maintain this high spending) also asking us to adopt a solution that will shrink the core of our local born population?

Without spending so much on defense, how do you expect PAP to get the SAF scholars required to run the country?
With a lot of PAP members coming from the scholarship system, it is unlikely they will reduce defense spending. Therefore to reduce defense spending, we should scrap the SAF scholarship system.

You are the King of Lies said...

The SAF is made complusory for all males not because of defence. It is to brainwash all the young guys so that they will not go against the pap regime. It is the same that pap uses HDB to enslave singaporeans to vote for them. Different tools but same purpose.

Anonymous said...

""The SAF is made complusory for all males not because of defence. It is to brainwash all the young guys so that they will not go against the pap regime.""

Another way to look at it, it is to regiment your mindset to look up upon authorities and to condition you on the power / authorities of those wearing uniforms (symbolism of justice, peace, order, etc). Good and quite acceptable if it is used for the rightful purpose, BUT (there is always a but) ...........

Anonymous said...

A Singaporean is a rat. He/she only seeks to care about him/herself and immediate family members. He/She does not consider society at large. Only self and the closest others. Social good is the last thing on a Singaporean mind. The culprit is what how to set up the education system that teaches little childrent that their self-worth is based on their test scores and teach them to infer that their peers are their competitors and not their fellow men.

For that, PAP is an asshole!

Anonymous said...

Q: Why do only 10 percent of MIWs make it to heaven?
A: Because if they all went, it would be called hell.

Q: Why can't MIWs get mad cow disease?
A: Because they are pigs.

Q: Why do MIWs whistle when they're sitting on the toilet?
A: Because it helps them remember which end they need to wipe.

Q: What's the difference between a UFO and an intelligent MIW?
A: UFOs have been sighted several times.

Anonymous said...

PAP is a goner. We only need to wrestle the power back from PAP and set us into the right path and save Singapore. Singaporeans have had done enough for the ministers to make them rich but it is all so wrong now. We don't need a retard ministers, we need to help ourselves from keep making mistake of voting for PAP. Singaporens need to wake up and realise PAP is the wrong party. No more time to waste, the last election was fooled by PAP when they made apology, we must not be fooled again. Too expensive to vote PAP in. Everything and every price has gone up, only an insane person can take it. I cant.

Anonymous said...

Economic growth will always be the top priority. The greatest fear for the planners is the fear of fading into obscurity, as all other city-states have done so in the past.

Going against the grain of history demands sacrifice, which of course, will be borne by those who are without choice.

Anonymous said...

The thumbscrews of property prices are sticky, i.e. even if prices were to drop, TFR would not increase in the medium term. In addition, more assertive action providing legal and physical infrastructure of childcare must be undertaken.

I take issue with the timing of raising the issue of the immigration policy. If one looks at the resident growth rate at http://www.singstat.gov.sg/stats/themes/people/hist/popn.html , it can be seen that the resident growth rate has been relatively constant since the mid 80s. In all likelihood, it is because of the Malthusian increase in total population that is causing the pressure to boil over - i.e. the track record that the PAP has spoken of has brought us good decades, but is also causing the current pressures. No wonder they do not think that they are at fault, because business as usual has brought much benefit in the past. But the population is clearly witnessing the effects of hitting a infrastructural limit.

Anonymous said...

Lucky, don't give the civil servants and MIW too much "credit" for the $12b of defence spending, or even for the negative effect of high property prices on falling fertility rate. Some must have come across these high flying folks, they give the impression that they just "cross the bridge when the time comes" for budget and policies. Double guessing what PM and old yoda want to hear is what they do most of the time.

Coherence of policies is not a consideration as each department inside each ministry is a "territory off limit to other ministries" and "fiefdom" to safeguard.

As for why defence spending is where it is, there is - the factor of boosting the GDP from spending on the ST-linked companies most of which are also listed and dividend back to Temasek. But even more goes to Uncle Sam - see the number of projects and detachments in the US and their allies. It is no coincidence we are one of a small handful of non-Nato allies of Uncle Sam - in times when the US defence budget looks about to shrink soon, they can always count on certain relationships of old yoda to prop up Kissinger and his pals in the defence-industrial complex that Eisenhower fear so much of... Too bad for little reddotters and yr children, the Lockheeds and BAe etc need to buy their gold plated toilet bowls.

Oh and someone mentioned we don;t have great economists to run the central banks - obviously this commentator has never seen how the Fed and the ECB are politically-linked - the probability of them printing money each time is far higher than raising rates. The central banks today are run by Goldman Alumus, in case he hasn't read. As for economists, in the US or UK, these are without fail students who cannot get into medicine or engineering courses. They have messed up the world and no one should trust these unscientific charlatans who cannot even understand a second order diffrential equation yet soemone says to trust them with monetary policies? Please lah...!

Anonymous said...

It is actually the greedy bankers who screw up the financial system with 30 to 1 leverage and their promotion of financial derivatives.
After the crash, the US central bank is there to bail out the financial system. Consider what would happen if they did not.
Admittedly, the US central bank track record is arguable. But UK, Germany, Australia all have central banks that protect their independence jealously. Either all these countries are dumb or they have learnt from painful lessons in the past.
We on the other hand have a short history and we have not witnessed a financial crisis of our own doing (last Asian crisis don't count because it the cause was the high debt level of our neighbours). If we had an independent central bank and we have the kind of inflation we had in the last few years, interest rates wld hv gone up to depress demand and to prevent a property bubble from developing. China did that and Australia too.
But what have we done? Increase our currency value which served to encourage even more speculation on properties by foreigners because they enjoy returns of higher pty price from low domestic interest rate as well as currency gain.
The party has to come to an end and history has taught economists that the bigger the bubble, the worse will be the after effects. And the long history in other mkts showed that pty mkts are in bubbly territory the moment it reaches 5 times of median annual income. Where do you think we are at now and who is there to bring some sanity back to the mkts in the absence of the independent central bank?
No system is perfect but we have one where the leaders are hugely incentivized to just keep the party because of the bonus structure. Should something adverse happen later, there will be no bonus clawbacks like the SMRT case.

Anonymous said...

"Oh and someone mentioned we don;t have great economists to run the central banks - obviously this commentator has never seen how the Fed and the ECB are politically-linked - the probability of them printing money each time is far higher than raising rates."

USA has the USD and has the advantage that no other country has - n they know how to capitalize on it.

We don't have such advantage but any decent intelligent person (or supposedly home grown great economist) would be moulded to think one way - thanks to the great success of propaganda & our mainstream media.

Anonymous said...

This is what Putin says in 2012 about Russia's babies.

"More and more Russian families are deciding to have a second or even third child. Over the past five years, the number of families with two children has gone up by 45 percent, and the number of families with three or more children by 62 percent. This is, of course, a reflection of people’s confidence in their own potential, their families, their country and their future, and in their government’s competence and responsibility."

Teo, what do you think Singapore can learn from there?

Anonymous said...

Are the well to do in Sin producing more babies than the poor Singaporeans?
If not, why?

Anonymous said...

Yes. Lky has 3 children. Lhl has 4 & George yeo has 3. So, what is the point?

Anonymous said...

"Yes. Lky has 3 children. Lhl has 4 & George yeo has 3. So, what is the point?"

So out of so many ministers and mps, total 87, how many of them have more than 2.

The point is that the 3 people mentioned by you are still not representative enough to skew the TFR back to 2.1

Anonymous said...

Come on, many men of Lee Kuan Yew and Lee Hsien Loong Time produced children by the dozens. And they have no problem bring them up.
It is only during the Father and Son's Rules that the TFR nose-dived to where it is today. Maybe, they are the CAUSE of it all. That is, Singaporeans just do not want to produce babies because, the Lees had made it too costly. Singaporeans also know that their offsprings will suffer in Sin.

Anonymous said...

Think out of the box. Inporting immigrants is causing too much trouble. What the government needs to do is extend its elite program. Right now we start with the GEP programme to scholars and them to PAP Ministers. What we need to do is create a PAP elite farm. They should get the semen and eggs from their elites especially LKY and hire surrogates from China to carry them. They can produce enough to make up the shortfall and breed them under control environment to be the future leaders which the government claims we are not producing. This is the ultimate win win situation

Anonymous said...

Three surgeons were discussing their favorite type of patients.

The first said: "I like artists.When you cut them open, they are awash with color inside."

The second doctor said: "I much prefer engineers. When you cut them open, everything is orderly and numbered."

"Nonsense," said the third doctor. "The easiest are MIWs. They have only two parts, their ass and their mouth and those are interchangeable."

Anonymous said...

Q: What is the difference between an MIW and a sperm?
A: The sperm has one in 25 million chance of becoming a human being.

Anonymous said...

To justify their million dollar salaries, they must have PKIs. The PKIs must reflect their HAIR qualities. Then they must come up with "action plans", whether workable or not. If not, they just fabricate the data to prove they succeeded. That in a nut "SHELL" is what is wrong with the whole PAP-civil service - the stupid "shell" system has been dropped by SHELL eons ago, the civil service still cling on like typical Singapore student - rote learning and no improvisation without the boss' prompting. If they just leave things alone, cut their own salaries, they will see that order will come out of chaos. Singaporeans are not dumb - its only because MIW and their sycophantic civil servants scholars want to be called forward looking, world class this and that, that every solution they offer is for an invented problem, and every solution create ten thousand other problems. Streaming and emphasis on elitism and education woes, Stop at 2 and low fertility rate, low govt spending and high healthcare costs, FT and falling productivity HDB, MAS-hot money and high asset and consumer price inflation, CPF and GIC/Temasek, MNC-focus industrial policy and decline in manufacturing, every key policy of the past 40 years was a hole dug out by themselves which created today's problems. From outside Singapore is "rich and shiny". Inside, the edifice is crumbling.

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