Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Debunking the DPM Teo's immigration argument.

In a recent town hall meeting, DPM Teo Chee Hean presented his argument that our low fertility rate today means that we need to have 20K-25K new citizens per year. You can and should read his speech and presentation in full here. For readers of this blog,  you are probably familiar with the flaw in this argument - a shortfall of babies today can only be properly compensated by importing babies today or 25 year olds in 2037. ....not 20K adults which is what the PAP claims.

I want to show you visually using DPM Teo's own presentation diagrams and data to show why his argument is wrong.

This is Singapore's population profile in 2011 and 2050 without immigration:

In a steady state situation where the TFR is 2.1 and the total population is constant, the profite is a rectangle in which every red and blue bars are of equal length.

Our current population profile is a barrel shape with more people below age 40, than above age 40. In 2050, the profile looks like an inverted pyramid, with more old people than young people.

If you import a 30 year old man, say from Phillipines or China, and make him a citizen today, in 2050, he will be 78 years old and his addition will go to 2nd bar counting from the top. If you import 100,000, 30 yr old today, 100K will be added to this bar i.e it will make the profile worse in 2050 because there will be even more aged people.

The correct way to compensate for the baby shortfall and ageing population is shown here:


To get a steady state profile of a rectangle in 2050, we need to add new citizens to the 45-49 age group and younger. The 30 year old new citizen should be added in 2035 or later to contribute positively to this profile - by 2050, he will be 45 years old and added to the yellow section where he is needed. We can also equivalently bring in 20 year olds in 2025 or 10 year olds in 2015 or 7 year olds in 2012. Bringing in adults today will just make this profile worse.

If you look at the diagram carefully, it also tells us there is no other real solution except to get our TFR back up. Why? If TFR does not go up, we need to import a and increasing number of people each year roughly 20 yrs from now....by 2050, if you look at the bottom bar 0-4 years old, we need to bring in as many as people as we reproduce, this is both unimaginable and impractical.

Given that we do not need to import adults as new citizens now and worsen the problem, we have time to push our TFR up which is the only viable solution. Using our current low fertility to justify more foreign import is not incorrect, it is harmful in the long run.

Another thing to note is the Singaporean population profile is completely different from our workforce profile which has a large number of non residents holding employment passes and work permits. This part of the workforce is always ’renewed’ causing our workforce to be artificially young leading to structural unemployment among those above 40. If you look at the workforce profile, the argument to import people to keep population young weakens further as the large number of young imported workers has already skewed our workforce profile and will continue to keep our workforce artificially young because after working here for a few years the PRC or Indian worker will go home and another young worker will take his place.

164 comments:

Anonymous said...

it is incorrect. not incorrect.

the whole idea of importing adults to replace shortfall in babies is to drive hdb prices further.

Anonymous said...

Hi Lucky,

I have been waiting for long time for someone to make this obvious connection: how importing 30-year old compensates for lack of newborn. The logic is beyond retarded by MIW keep bringing it up. And as your other posts shown TFR 30 years ago was quite adequate so why does SG need 30 year old import today ?

Anonymous said...

Why do they keep lying to us to justify their harmful policies. This govt is just not honest.

Anonymous said...

"Using our current low fertility to justify more foreign import is not incorrect, it is harmful in the long run."
Lucky Tan

Not really. The rich and talented foreign imports can be made into citizens what. Of course they may grow old in future but then PAP can always import younger ones in future what.

Even 10 million population also OK what, if the foreign imports don't mind coming and squeezing here. I tell you, sure have foreign talents want to come here one lah, no matter what. And with the whole wide world as the market to get them, where got supply problem even in future?

Lucky Tan, not to worry, PAP knows better than you whether humful, oops! harmful or not lah.

Anonymous said...

Mee siam mai hum is not harmful.

Mee siam hu hum is harmful, if the hum is not cooked properly.

Amused said...

Actually TFR dropped below 2 in the mid-70's. However, the government was still promoting the Stop-at-Two policy then. It was not until 1987 that the government started the Have-Three-or-More-(if-you-can-afford-it) campaign.

The immigration needs in the past decade (and today) has more to do with increasing the GDP than addressing the population shortfall. The natural population balance is probably between 3-4 millions, not 6-7 millions. They are just finding excuses to justify the import of cheap labor.

Anonymous said...

How can we be sure that the new citizens would just renounce Sinkie citizenship and retire back to their homeland? we do not have hard figures from the government about this and those who do not fulfill their NS obligations. I am very sure whatever data that has been presented, it is the true blue S'poreans who gets the short end of the stick and the government knows it.

Anonymous said...

"I want to show you visually using DPM Teo's own presentation diagrams and data to show why his argument is wrong."
Lucky Tan

It is not whether Lucky Tan or whoever thinks DPM Teo is wrong, but whether 60% think it is right to vote PAP.

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
The said...

/// how importing 30-year old compensates for lack of newborn ///

maybe the idea is for these 30-year old new citizens to fcuk and reproduce like rabbits?

Anonymous said...

Whence the Rulers spouted nonsense and make it a policy without any resistance or call for referendum from the people, it is the fault of the people.

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...

"Whence the Rulers spouted nonsense and make it a policy without any resistance or call for referendum from the people" , it is the fault of 60% of the voters.

Anonymous said...

Singaporeans are not that stupid. We know the massive immigration has more to do with increasing the GDP than addressing the population shortfall. They are just finding excuses to justify the import of cheap labor.
What to do, if 60% support their policy

The said...

/// Anonymous said...
So who will these 30 year old new citizens be fcuking?
Your mother or your daughter?
23/10/12 10:10///

Why the hostility? Feeling left out? Of course they will be screwing you or your sister - probably your whole family.

Anonymous said...

I am surprised no academic in Singapore written about the same issue lucky has raised. Probably they fear ending up like the sex for grades professor. It also speaks volumes about the credibility of certain so called "independent" research bodies cited by the State media.

PAP relies on silencing of academia to maintain its power. Occasionally you see a few wayang articles from academia, just like the National CONversation.

Kenneth Koh said...

Both DPM and Lucky Tan are wrong. The scenario is much worse. In 10 years time, will the TFR still be 1.2? I bet it will be even lower because people are getting more educated and they want more time for themselves.
Having children is no longer an achievement in life - something to be proud of.

So think what will happen when the population becomes smaller and smaller. There will be a smaller work force. Investors will leave for other countries which have plenty of labour supply. Then what will happen to Singapore?

Will we be able to survive?

Let treat this population issue seriously. You can be anti-PAP for all I care. But this is about Singapore. You dun need to link everything to politics.

Anonymous said...

The Day Of Reckoning shall be here soon.
Talk not of 20 years down the road, it is too
far for consideration with existing problems
and those looming at the horizon.
Solve the existing problems first.

Anonymous said...

How to take the words of a man who cannot even conversed with a student seriously ?

Doubt Singaporeans care much about him and
his rhetoric.

Kenneth Koh said...

If we just want to solve the problem at this moment, then we are being short-sighted.

WE need to plan ahead!

That is what a responsible govt will do.

Anonymous said...

There will always be a continuous supply of foreign imports even in the future.

Remember, it is from the whole wide world that we are getting these foreign imports. So where got not enough? Except maybe for native Singaporeans, how can population get smaller and smaller?

Even if it foreign imports become 90% of citizens, so what? Citizens are members of the family what, ka ki nang, tio bo?

Anonymous said...

"Citizens are members of the family what, ka ki nang, tio bo?"
Anon 23/10/12 12:39

Very tio. That's why PAP is so smart, really know what they are doing. They really deserve to be government.

Anonymous said...

"Citizens are members of the family what, ka ki nang, tio bo?"
Anon 23/10/12 12:39

Very tio. That's why PAP is so smart, really know what they are doing. They really deserve to be government.

Kenneth Koh said...

You mentioned that raising TFR is the only viable solution. I believe everybody knows that. BUT HOW TO DO SO is the question. The govt has been trying all sorts of ways without success. Do you have better ideas?
This is a universal issue. Almost all the countries in the world are experiencing this problem. Singapore is not the only one. So it cannot be the govt fault.


Anonymous said...

BUT HOW TO DO SO is the question.
23/10/12 12:58

U don't know? How old are u?

Get married, have sex, female get pregnant, give birth, in this order. And strictly.

Got it?

Anonymous said...

Get married, no use.

Have sex, no use.

get pregnant, no use.

MUST GIVE BIRTH, THEN TFR WILL GO UP. THEN GOT USE.

Got it?

Anonymous said...

I noticed that there is a marked increase in troll activities in the comments section. This is a sure sign that Lucky Tan is squeezing the right balls in the right places. Keep up the good work Lucky Tan.

Anonymous said...

Even Lee Kuan Yew talks about "original Singaporeans". "We cannot have new citizens, new PRs to settle our social ethos, our social spirit, our social norms."

Any talk of taking in immigrants to fill out shortage of birth is just pure rubbish. Young immigrants to take care of old original Singaporeans? Fat chance.

http://cod-democracy.blogspot.sg/2012/10/will-lee-kuan-yew-save-singaporeans.html

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...

"Young immigrants to take care of old original Singaporeans?"
23/10/12 13:25

Why not? In fact already happening.

What do foreign maids do? Who are those working in nursing homes here?

Not enough nursing homes here, go JB and Batam lah.

Kenneth Koh said...

There is no need to link everything to trolls and politics.

Judge each comment on its strength and weakness. Judge each comment on its sanity and insanity.

Anonymous said...

papist leaders habitually indulge in deceptions to lead Singaporeans astray. Throw them out.

kwanghtn said...

During my short stint in Luxembourg, a country lack of resources and surrounded by massive influx of labor,I have come to realize this small little country has the highest TFR and good quality of living in the whole of Europe. It bewildered me so much (as the country has one tenth of Singapore population and almost 4 times land size of ours) that I believe our govt should be modeled against theirs (hopefully at a small fraction of the current cost too!) The small state embraces foreign labor with open arms and yet at the same time providing a first world class social net for its citizen. The work life balance is wonderful and it seems the country, in spite the lack of fancy tall buildings, is basked in happiness. We, as Singaporeans, on the other hand may be rich but we are in constant struggle as a small nation state. It really made me think if we had really gone on the wrong path?

Anonymous said...

"... There will be a smaller work force. Investors will leave for other countries which have plenty of labour supply. Then what will happen to Singapore?

Will we be able to survive?.."


THATS WHY WE NEED TO BE INNOVATIVE BY USING OUR DIMWIT BRAINS INSTEAD OF RELYING WHOLE LIFE ON CHEAP, PLENTIFUL LABOUR.

Sweden, Switzerland, Denmark can do it with small populations.. WITHOUT MASSIVE IMPORTS!!!

How? How? How????

-16:1 student to teacher ratios
-Freedom of expression
-Allow arts to flourish
-Allow failure

Its not difficult to implement you know.. its just plain, straight forward policies.


Anonymous said...

Cannot solve today's problems,
how to talk about future ones ?
10 to 20 years down the road some
more!

Anonymous said...

Lucky Tan, you have managed to provide a thought-provoking expose, excellent!. This is certainly one of the most insightful rebuttal I have seen on the immigration argument so far.
It would have been much more informative to include some of the other PAParguments to debunk, such as the FT policy, job enhancement.......

As observered by Anon 23/10/12 13:21, I also agree that there are signs of trolls who are increasingly worried.



(Under the Willow Tree Foreign Talent Issue is a Symptom of the Power Struggle between the Political, Corporate Elite and the Working Class)
http://utwt.blogspot.sg/2012/02/foreign-talent-issue-really-is-power.html

(MUST READ - Political reason why our government allows foreigners to supress Singaporeans The Real Singapore)
http://therealsingapore.com/content/must-read-political-reason-why-our-government-allows-foreigners-supress-singaporeans

(Super wimps, elitism, double standards & other mean tots « Thoughts of a Cynical Investor)
http://atans1.wordpress.com/2012/10/22/super-wimps-elitism-double-standards-other-mean-tots/

(Of Opportunists and Sycophants in Academia « Singapore Armchair)
http://singaporearmchaircritic.wordpress.com/2012/07/11/of-opportunists-and-sycophants-in-academia/

(What Is Politics — The League of Ordinary Gentlemen)
http://ordinary-gentlemen.com/blog/2010/12/what-is-politics/

(What Is Politics - Funny Political Joke)
http://politicalhumor.about.com/library/jokes/bljokewhatispolitics.htm

(Rule of Law or Rule by Law « Singapore Armchair Critic)
https://singaporearmchaircritic.wordpress.com/2012/06/20/rule-of-law-or-rule-by-law/

(Singapore Rebel Speak truth unto power Singapore's cyber dissident speaks out)
http://singaporerebel.blogspot.sg/2006/12/singapores-cyber-dissident-speaks-out.html

Joshua Chiang

Anonymous said...

World population is growing,
cannot be that every country
is having low TFR.

Anyway, what is wrong with low
population. China has implemented
one child per couple for over five
decades despite having vast landmass.

Had we stick to the two is enough policy, many of us would have more
space and likely bigger house and less traffic congestion. Housing and car will be a lot cheaper too.

Anonymous said...

Importing foreigners to boost TFR is actually a red herring. The REAL purpose of the PAP in importing foreigners is to boost GDP artificially so that they, the PAP, can continue to use GDP to maintain their ridiculous high salaries and keep their rich kakis happy with the cheap foreign labour.

Anonymous said...

I think low fertility is half the problem. The real problem is many singaporeans are migrating to other countries. Imagine if they tell us this, people will think that there is something very wrong with Singapore.

Anonymous said...

China will be the worst hit cos of the one child policy. In order to avoid having huge aging population, China may have to do something very drastic such as making others slaves by colon. Anyway, importing foreigners can solve many problems - increase GDP, continue high pay of ministers, migration problems of locals, low fertility, make rich people happy cos can have many cheap maids, make many towkays happy cos can have many cheap labour, make many people happy cos they can have million dollar HDB. What other single solution to solve all these issues?

hgh said...

Took me time to read all the comments, but I really love the article. It proved to be very helpful to me and I am sure to all the commenters here! It’s always nice when you can not only be informed, but also engaged! I’m sure you had joy writing this article.hgh

Anonymous said...

Read the first hand account at

http://www.youarebetteroffted.blogspot.com

Anonymous said...

The Graetest issue is they are importing FTs at late 30+ which will increase our Aging Population in 2020. Those above 60+ will includes local and foreign born. If we have maintained our local population our numbers will still be 3.3 million.
Imagine with our reserve of $200B(est) from GIC & $200B(est) from Temasek, if base on 5% return will be $20B per year. If divided by our local population of 3.3M, each will have $6,061 per year as medical subsidies. Consider 1m of them are above 60yrs than each will have $20k per year. Why are we worries of aging if managed correctly.

Anonymous said...

The real problem is many singaporeans are migrating to other countries.
23/10/12 15:02

Let them migrate lah. No problem to get foreigners to be new or maybe even better citizens than those who left what.

Like Anon 23/10/12 12:39 said, even if foreign imports become 90% of citizens, so what?

As long as 60% citizens are happy to vote PAP, you not happy, so what?

Anonymous said...

make no mistake. new imports have the same low tfr as native.

so importing adults doesn't solve the shortfall in babies.

Anonymous said...

Why 60% happy under PAP but you not happy?

Ask yourself. What must you do to make yourself happy?

Anonymous said...

get ready for the $100 hong bao!!!!

Anonymous said...

"so importing adults doesn't solve the shortfall in babies."
23/10/12 16:28

You stupid or what. Babies cannot contribute to GDP now. Only in future. Only adults can.
So in future adults not enough, import again lah. Why need babies now?

Anonymous said...

Ask yourself. What must you do, not what PAP must do, to make yourself happy.

Anonymous said...

Aiyah, all this begging and pleading for any old body - except Malay and Indian (hey, kuan yew's preference) - to have babies is such a yesterday solution.

It makes more sense to import say 25,000 graduate women (kuan yew's preference as the rest of us are seen as lesser mortals).

Their sole purpose is to breed -just have children. (If they have free time, they could work as well.)

They are paid to produce a child a year. Of course with graduate men as sires. Perhaps through artificial insemination.

Voila, 25,000 kids a year. Problem solved.

Need more? Get in more women to breed.

Kids who are not adopted can be raised by the state in this major national project.

auto said...

Let our first class leader import whatever they want. Maybe one day we will have Jim Roger as president?

auto said...

How to end PAP rule if we do not have all these smarter, richer, more ruthless, more thickskin, more hungry imports? depend on lucky tan?

Anonymous said...

This argument is so obvious when it's explained to you in this way. Can someone just bring it up to the govt scholars and ministers this glaring point.
The last town hall meeting was a missed opportunity to bring up this point to the ministers.

Would have loved to hear their response.

Anonymous said...

the diagram - 2050 one also say something shitty about the hdb market.

there are more holders of hdb flats (from the older singaporeans) than there are potential buyers from the list below.

Anonymous said...

Lucky,

You and Teo are both right. He is present the case to solve a 30 years problem today and you are presenting a case to solve a 30 years problem in the future.

Whichever way anyone want to look at it, we have a serious problem on hands. All these million buck asset today will be bequeath to the maids and pets in due time.

Anonymous said...

The population Math doesnt add up when you replace babies with adult. Its a lie repeated many times and would be a severe loss of face if they would admit its a mistake. We all know why PAP want more new citizens even though the last 10 years have proven immigration has brought none of the benefits claimed by them

Anonymous said...

The solution to our TFR<2 is :
a) increase babies today
b) import working adults 25 years from now

But our govt has massively increase the number of foreigners into our country during the LAST DECADE (especially the last 5 years). That is not only the wrong solution to our nation's problem, it exacerbate the situation, for the following reasons:

1) It increase the number of working adults needed in the future to support the economy when this batch of working foreigners/new citizens retire, just like an unsustainable ponzi scheme.

2) It depress the wage of citizen adults currently working so that they may not earn enough to last them in their retirement years. It is paramount for citizens, especially for singles/childless couples, to earn enough savings during their working years to be financially independent when they retire

3) It increase the housing needs of the population, which leads to high property prices. Citizens will spend more on housing and hence less in savings for their retirement. Construction companies need to import more workers to construct the buildings now. If the govt had not massively import foreigners over the last decade, our construction industry capacity will not be so stressed and the construction capacity can be spread evenly over many years. The need for foreign construction workers will be much less.

4) Every adult foreigners imported over the last decade is an admission of the mistake of the stop-at-two policy during the 1970s-1980s. These foreigner adults could have been born by citizens were there no such policy.

Anonymous said...

The govt should release TFR figures separately for original citizens and new citizens. For all you know, the new citizens could be the group that lowers the TFR for the country, and the govt use the low TFR to justify for yet more imports.

Anonymous said...

Not replacing the population is a one way bet to extinction. Classic case of tragedy of the commons, individual procreation decision aggregating into a national tragedy. Who is going to defend this nation of asset rich old folks in the future? Pay mercenaries (they will rob you first!). History hasn't been kind to city states, and certainly not one filled with old folks. Pray for a miracle.

Anonymous said...

I think we have to differentiate importing foreigners and converting new citizens.

The demographic chart only shows Singapore citizens, not even PRs. Since 1977, our TFR is already less than 2.1. In Lucky point of view, we now should convert 35 years old foreigners to become citizens. So there is a reasons now we are getting new citizens and not wait until 2035 to do it.

Anonymous said...

".....Since 1977, our TFR is already less than 2.1. ....."

So we should imports only 30-year-old and below in 2007 and in moderate numbers.
Look at what the govt had done. Between 2001 and 2011, the numbers of foreigners converted into citizens were as though our TFR was 1.5 in 1977 !
And don't forget to look into the new citizens age profile.

Anonymous said...

http://www.singstat.gov.sg/pubn/popn/c2010acr/key.pdf

Lets look at the above population indicators from 1970 to 2010. We noticed that after 1990, the growth in citizens population has moderated to about 13% in 2000 and 8% in 2010.

I did not sees a massive conversion of foreigners to citizens being done between 2001 to 2011.

We may be right in saying that the age profile is wrong. But we need to agree that getting foreigners to become citizens is not a wrong move. It just need to be fine tune to make sure it creates growth in our economy as well as making a good social environment in Singapore.

Minghui Kuok said...

Interesting take here. I agree with the view that only by boosting the TFR can we solve the problem. I don't think Lucky need to play the stats game here because the entire importing of foreigners to boost the population is just a short term stop gap measure. The major risk in the plan lies in an imminent turnover in terms of the population numbers. Interestingly enough, the long term take given by DPM was that foreign spouses truly contributed to the potential population growth and I can never fault this very logic. What I feared though is that will this very generation of children and onward sustain the population? It's a numbers game filled with uncertainty and zero certainty. iirc this is a monster caused by LKY's foreigner policy where a momentary lack of foresight scuppered everything.
To me, the current ministers are still unable to exit beyond the LKY stigma due to his hold on the local socio-political scene. On the short term, we can only cross our fingers, for only in the longer term can we see far more clearly what the future will hold in every aspect.

Anonymous said...

You don't need to comment multiple times to get your message across. Once is enough!

Anonymous said...

Dear Lucky

you are right in stating that the only solution is to raise TFR. perhaps you would like to exercise your considerable intellect in this area and offer some insights that may lead to a solution. There is actually a book written by NTU professor Shirley Hsiao on how the pronatalist policies are unable to produce any result, due to our culture of wanting to raise smart and competitive children. It is called Pro natalist policies and childbearing decisions in Singapore, and is available in the NLB reference section. I believe anyone who wish to engage in meaningful discourse on the TFR issue must at least take some time and effort to do a literature review first.

Anonymous said...

one key issue missed by Lucky in his analysis is that immigrants are more likely to procreate than locals. Afterall, what is the point of immigrating to a new country if you are going to be alone in the house by yourself after work? Their willingness to have more children could help to lift TFR. I'm not sure how this 2nd order effect will affect the analysis though

Void Decker said...

Hi Lucky,

Just to share, I also wrote about this some time back (article also on TOC):

http://www.voiddecker.com/2012/10/beware-the-ageing-population-false-dilemma/

Anonymous said...

I smelled something fishy the other day. WhileI was walking past a rc cnetre in clement, i saw 1 Singaporean man, may be a grass root leader, not sure. He was leading a group of may be 16 prc , they are middle age or older. He seemed to be leading this group of prc to tour the hdb estate.

My question is ,is there any hush project to promote Singapore to more prc without us, the local Singaporeans' knowledge ?

If there is, I think the incumbents are really untrueful and sly !

Is this the way they calibrate the immigrant issue ?

So, beware, things are happening without us noticing.

Anonymous said...

Hi Anon 0735 Above,
You are right, things are happening
without us noticing.
人在做, 天在看。The Fate is sealed.
No talent can change that.

Anonymous said...

Please lah..

Forget about the "Tian Zai Kan". U can wait for the Tian till cows/crocodiles come home...

Anonymous said...

Importing 30 year olds to replace babies? Teo Chee Hian is talking nonsense.

Anonymous said...

Its an argument repeated many times by LKY, DPM Teo is merely parroting,rehashing it with nice slides.

If PAP cant plan properly for infrastructure,they will be just labelled as "semi competent and greedy politicians". To make the same mistake twice is the nail in the coffin for any claims on their competency and credibility..

Anonymous said...

If they are semi competent and greedy politicians, how come they can win at least 60% majority votes every election?

Don't tell me the 60% majority are daft? Cannot be what.

Anonymous said...

If you can understand why we honor family unit, why can't you understand that this is true in nation building?

If you can understand the wisdom of living within your means, why do you then seek growth beyond your capacity?

Never steal, never covet other nations babies or citizens.

You are over building and corrupting the natural order and will reap what you had sowed.

Anonymous said...

"If you import a 30 year old man and make him a citizen today, in 2050, he will be 78 years old and his addition will go to 2nd bar. If you import 100,000, 30 yr old today, 100K will be added to this bar i.e it will make the profile worse in 2050 because there will be even more aged people."

Lucky,

You are assuming all new citizens will live out their entire lives here. What makes you so sure that people will continue to remain here well after retirement? It's no secret that Singapore is the worst place to retire in. (Hell, even local-born Singaporeans are running away.) I think the govt knows this. They want to bring in the ideal new citizens, you know...the guys who are economically active, who will raise a family here, buy HDB flats or condos, live a productive life and head elsewhere (could be back home or somewhere else in SE Asia) once they hit their late 50s.

Anonymous said...

Isn't it true you are fukked? That's all the proof you need

tradert said...

Good article. We definitely need to raise our TFR, else it will dwindle in future.

Am tired of all this crap, I realize that since I'm not joining politics, the only contribution I can make is to have at least 2 kids, and vote wisely in GE 2016.

And my backup plan is to retire or semi-retire in Malaysia.

All this chatter is interesting, but it doesn't get into the "National Conversation".

Anonymous said...

Anyone who wishes for real change need to start a "National conversation with the 60% who voted PAP to vote otherwise in 2016."

The problem is how to do it in order to get the desired outcome?

Definitely not through blogs or Internet what, or else Lucky Tan and other good bloggers would have succeeded in doing so in 2011, tio bo?

So how?

Anonymous said...

You are assuming all new citizens will live out their entire lives here. What makes you so sure that people will continue to remain here well after retirement? It's no secret that Singapore is the worst place to retire in. (Hell, even local-born Singaporeans are running away.) I think the govt knows this. They want to bring in the ideal new citizens, you know...the guys who are economically active, who will raise a family here, buy HDB flats or condos, live a productive life and head elsewhere (could be back home or somewhere else in SE Asia) once they hit their late 50s.

Assuming what you say is possible,why cant it be
Ditto for Singaporean born citizens? Why need to import new citizens?

Anonymous said...

Another insightful point by Lucky..

The non-residents are kept perpetually young.. When their term expires another young chap comes and take over, which weakens the argument for needing a younger workforce..

Anonymous said...

Another insightful point by Lucky..
Anon 24/10/12 21:42

Chee Soon Juan is also insightful what. In fact much more. He even wrote books, including insightful best sellers which earned him $30K in just 10 days! Which local author you know surpass him on this score?

But insightful got use or not? Can win even one single seat in Parliament or not?

Anonymous said...

"Can win even one single seat in Parliament or not?"
Anon 24/10/12 22:08

For what? Be insightful to make lots of money and have good life, not win seats in Parliament, unless it is PAP seat.

Or make lots of money and if got spare time, also write insightful blogs lah, which is what smart people like Lucky did.

Anonymous said...

If pap is anymore non corrupt or self righteous, heaven also will burn in hell fire

Donovan said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Donovan said...

In addition to your excellent point, DPM Teo argues that low TFR will add pressure to younger generation to support the elderly. I assume he does not mean literally support them but financially through the paying of increasingly higher taxes. In other words, he is concerned about high dependency ratios that is plaguing Japan and much of Western Europe today.
However, given that Singapore has neither social security nor universal health care, how will low TFR/ high dependency ratio impact us. Isn't that another massive flaw in the argument?

Anonymous said...

It doesn't impact Singaporeans' pockets. But a low TFR does impact on how much money the government has and needs to sustain and continue paying its team of millionaire ministers. The aim of the government is simply to ride the wave and cash in on the millions while they still can be in parliament. When they leave their positions, they have a good tidy sum for retirement. It may be the case that many Singaporeans are OK with this system.

Anonymous said...

It is easy to disinform a population of people in an island that doesn't believe that university education should be made available to all its citizens. No critical thinking is allowed to perpetuate. It may be the case that many who are promoted to some positions of authority and power would claim that they are simply following through the top-down approach given their seniors in higher positions; even though they know that is not the best way to go. This is Singapore. It is perhaps the case that many are unaware that as citizens they are short-changed from the world's most highest paid politicians. In a tiny island of the edge of South East Asia, here is where the world's most highly paid political office in found on the planet.

It is probably the case that many singaporeans are unaware.

Anonymous said...

It is a case of better and easier choice for the smart fellas to make lots of money than to fight and win over the 60% from the PAP.

So no smart fellas want to fight PAP.

And therefore PAP has no better opponents or smart fellas to fight.

So 60% has no better choice than PAP to choose as govt.

Tio bo?



Anonymous said...

Tio bo?
Anon 26/10/12 11:39

Very tio. No smart fella and bloggers, Lucky Tan included, has described the problem the way you have described. You really hit the Bull's eye!

Anonymous said...

Time to put a stop to this nonsense!

Said Economic Society of Singapore (ESS) President Euston Quah: "The talents that draw high pay are scarce; the market knows and signals this by allocating a higher price to them. If you put a cap on these people, they will leave for other places."

Anonymous said...

Anon 26/10/12 12:11,

What market and what signals are you talking about?

For high pay PAP ministers, it is the majority 60% who voted for them which allow them to decide their high pay!

And as such, these ministers don't even need to leave for other places for high pay.

Unless you call it the 60% market lah. And being so, it is the most powerful market in Singapore, tio bo?

Anonymous said...

The weak and tarp pai su (always lose) opposition is due to the vicious cycle so well described by anon 26/10/12 11:39

And PAP will continue to rule Singapore strongly as long as no one, not even wise Lucky Tan, can think of how to break this vicious cycle.

Anonymous said...

"And PAP will continue to rule Singapore strongly as long as no one, not even wise Lucky Tan, can think of how to break this vicious cycle.
Anon 26/10/12 12:45

Only when Lucky Tan or other smart fellas become poor, then maybe they will start to think.

Anonymous said...

Nations should cooperate and stop the nonsense. It is really in their interests in the long term

Anonymous said...

It is in the interest of the world

ape@kinjioleaf said...

I agree that the only solution is to raise TFR.

I can accept PAP logic in importing immigrants PROVIDED they can raise the TFR, each new citizen are contributing to the population by having 3 or more babies. Are the new citizens doing that? How can we know or at least guess?

Lucky Tan, please excuse me for being lazy but if you or any reader here has the time, perhaps can help to check out the statistics. Make a comparison of population growth versus TFR. If we can distinct the growth of 'native' vs 'new citizen' even better. The rational goes like this-if TFR correlates with immigrants, than we can say immigration helps in boosting TFR.

I didn't check the figures but get a general sense that influx of 'new citizens' occurred perhaps 5 or 10 years ago but TFR remain stagnant. If my guess is correct, than can we say that immigrants do not help in anyway in boosting TFR?

Anonymous said...

Boosting TFR means having more babies now.

But babies cannot work and contribute to GDP what.

It is adults, and PAP need lots of adults. And cheap and young ones too. And where to get these adults? Of course import more foreigners lah.

And which is what the smart PAP govt is doing all this while. And in future too, if need be.

But of course having more babies also good lah, so that in future no need to import so many adults lah. That's the only good thing about babies what.

Anonymous said...

What needs to be done is simple:
1) get ready money to award child birth and child under age of certain age;
2) ask all tv broadcast, Internet to be switched off in alternate days for a week;
3) encourage couple to make love without contraceptive;
4) for those who got pragnant during this period, money will be awarded till the child is 17 year old or any age that is reasonable;
5) for those who already having kids, reward them as well.
6) all the above reward must be substantial as it is spent to get more citizens.

This incentive will help to push the citizen to hv bigger family..

Anonymous said...

No you know why they don't like or allow debate...they can spin whatever they want.

Anonymous said...

Someone stepped on my foot just the other day. It went to high office. Bloody MP ill mannered and bodoh didn't know how to engage and as usual, judged from a distant.

The guy who stepped on my foot vomited blood and died today, I was told.

Shocked.

God have mercy.

Anonymous said...

we would point our fingers at people sitted on ivory towers

Anonymous said...

"Kenneth Koh said... Let treat this population issue seriously. You can be anti-PAP for all I care. But this is about Singapore. You dun need to link everything to politics."

everything is interlinked. if not, why political decisions have to be made on immigration policies and then on recalibration if the head is too hot to handle.

like most issues, if not all, nothing exists in a vacuum on its own.

Anonymous said...

"Donovan said...how will low TFR/ high dependency ratio impact us. Isn't that another massive flaw in the argument?"

Now going back to the area of flaw argument ? Is it really demographic which may solve the problem in the short term but leaving the mess to the future (the present will become old also) - or some other issues (screwed up mechanics / results of action & policies.

By buying into the social compact, why should not each cohort be self sufficient financially or leave enough on their own good for their own retirement.

Presently, are we seeing more people, the current generation, relying more on the older cohorts (parents & family members) or the other way round.

Anonymous said...

"Not really. The rich and talented foreign imports can be made into citizens what. Of course they may grow old in future but then PAP can always import younger ones in future what."

but TFR of 2.1 for a population of 2million+ (ours in the past) ? 3million, 6million or 10million ? Head they win and tail you lose.

they can always import younger ones becos they are at the top of the apex, not so painful for the ruling class as they are being protected / rewarded for treating you & others at the lower rung of the ladder as a competitive and working digit to pay their own dues.

Anonymous said...

"Sunday Times published two stories of high earning cabbies earning $6k to $7k a month."

You see, under PAP govt, if you are smart, even as taxi drivers you can make so much money.

Where got time to cowpeh cowbu PAP, much less join opposition to fight PAP?

And which is what the smart 60% majority who voted PAP do.

Anonymous said...

"You see, under PAP govt, if you are smart, even as taxi drivers you can make so much money."

that is quite true for all countries under any party. even in godforsaken places, they will their own champions in their own rights. because there will always be smart people, if not many, irregardless whether you are in Switzerland, Singapore, Zimbabwe or North Korea.

there are also $8/- surgery, flat affordable even if you are on $1,000/- pay per mth, $3,000/- per mth dishwasher. but how many of such smart cases relative to overall ground reality. like they said, one swallow (two swallows) does not a summer make.

Anonymous said...

Luckily PAP does not have just one swallow to make their summer.

They have 60%. How many swallows is that?

Anonymous said...

"They have 60%. How many swallows is that?"

Oh you are referring to the 60% who need the national conversation to stay smart - and not the smart taxi drivers any more.

Anonymous said...

We know that at the end of the day, the immigration policy is only a Ponzi scheme created to justify their devious plans to jack up the GDP. This current government has tried very hard to pull the wool over Singaporeans' eyes, claiming that Singaporeans are not productive, that we are picky and stupid and useless, and also that foreigners are better than us. The most obvious thing is that once they import these workers, we know that in years to come, they will either leave or stay on and soak up all the benefits they can have without paying taxes and all. It is such a giveaway. Only the truly indoctrinated and self-delusional can vote for them, and that is more than 60% of the citizens.

Anonymous said...

Actually Ponzi scheme is talking about money.

Ponzi scheme will collapse if there is no new money coming in to replace old money given out.

PAP immigration policy is about foreign imports from the whole wide world, not money.

The whole wide world has tens of billions of people, you know. And very high TFR!

So where got not enough new foreign imports coming in the future?

Anonymous said...

New money may not be enough but new foreign imports sure enough one, now or in future.

Anonymous said...

singapore taxi drivers' income so attractive .. govt shud allow more foreigners into this lucrative trade now. more talents from china should come to our shores to not just drive buses but also taxis as well. we must take good care of the foreigners otherwise they will withdraw their money!!

Anonymous said...

Are the taxi drivers paying income tax relative to their earnings?
The Incone Tax Dept may have to have a good check at it.

Unconditioned Singaporean said...

Which is more likely?

1) Our government knows what it takes to increase our TFR and is aware of the ground issues.

OR

2) It wants new citizens for its own political survival.

It's going to be different for different people. For me, personally, the second option is more likely.

I do believe this present government is pulling wool over Singaporeans' eyes and it is up to the netizens, the opposition parties and the rest of the 39.9% of fellow Singaporeans to keep each other informed of the disinformation that has been the work of our government policies.

For this, I see, Mr. Leong Sze Hian, as a Singaporean Hero.

patriot said...

It was jus months ago tat our rulers claimed tat they had to increase taxi fare for taxi driver to have better income. The reason given was tat taxi drivers were not earning enuff, whatever tat means. And now, taxi driver proved that the information(reason) was inaccurate.

Are our Rulers doing their homeworks and duties??

patriotﹰﹰ

Anonymous said...

New citizens are needed not just for PAP to survive, but also Singapore to survive.

And not just survive, but to survive very well.

Survive very well for who? Of course those who are talented and smart lah, like PAP politicians and even $7K per month taxi drivers.

In percentage terms, the 60%. They survive well enough to always want to vote PAP, no matter what.

So learn how to survive well lah, like what PAP loser George Yeo call "go with the flow".

Why "go against the flow"? Not smart, right?

Of course also no harm blogging "against the flow" lah, if you already survive well.



Xianlong said...

"You can't produce a baby in 1 month by getting 9 women pregnant.”-Warren Buffett

Demographic time bomb ignited by the Pro Alien Party has no way of defusing & making the ship sink faster by importing & importing adults.

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Anonymous said...

This guy is right. Because Singapore also belongs to businessmen and towkays who businesses depend on foreign labour to stay competitive or they leave. Do i like a crowded singapore? No. If the towkays leave and close their business is it bad for singapore? Yes. is it bad for my family? Maybe. What if my father is a driver for these types of companies or my sister does accounts for them. Alot of singaporeans nesd to see the big picture of life in any rapidly growing city. It always gets crowded. But sometimea we depend on these dynamics more than we think. Big picture planning is what i prefer. Crowded bus i can tahan. No jobs for my family just cos we are not receptive to realities - i cannot accept.

Anonymous said...

Good reply man. I like it cos u got reasoning la. all dis ppl talking about other scandinavian countries so dissimilar to ours is not helpful. Apples for oranges wont get us anywhere. You, i believe, has done a good durian to durian analysis.

Anonymous said...

Rich kakis own companies that bring inestment and provide jobs for singaporeans too. When they leave, ur GDP is low, the PAP may go away and if u or others are unemployed cos of it and no one is interested in investing in Singapore anymore, i will look for u and ask u for the solution on why we became a kampung again.

Anonymous said...

Rich kakis own companies that bring inestment and provide jobs for singaporeans too. When they leave, ur GDP is low, the PAP may go away and if u or others are unemployed cos of it and no one is interested in investing in Singapore anymore, i will look for u and ask u for the solution on why we became a kampung again.

Anonymous said...

Rich kakis own companies that bring inestment and provide jobs for singaporeans too. When they leave, ur GDP is low, the PAP may go away and if u or others are unemployed cos of it and no one is interested in investing in Singapore anymore, i will look for u and ask u for the solution on why we became a kampung again.

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Anonymous said...

Maybe the population whitepaper with its target of 6.9 mil is meant scare singaporeans into having more children..."Go make babies or I WILL replace you"!

Anonymous said...

Guys, the govt is referring to a gradual NET increase on foreigners every year to join the workforce. Those guys, when they reach the age if retirement or earlier, will leave the shores of Singapore and will not be contributing to the ageing population issue. So Lucky Tanhas got the logic wrong here. That 30 year old guy imported today will work here for 10 years or less and then leave. As the 40% of local workforce age, they will be replenished by foreigners in order to keep the workforce from shrinking, and along with it the economy. The other way around it is to get more productive, at a faster rate of workforce declining. Constructive ideas welcome!

Also, Denmark has North Sea oil and Europe as its hinterland. Norway is so oil rich it is not funny. Taiwan has population 23m. I too, don't want my boy growing up to defend a singapore that is half foreign and who can up and leave anytime. But what can we do? We need to have more kids, we need a more moderate immigration so that we can culturally assimilate.... But can we do entirely without immigration without the economy going backwards? I don't know. The comment on the white paper being inadequate is fair, we need more scenarios presented to us. But to reject it and name call the PaP is not mature. Singaporeans, it is easy to poke holes and reject, but be a true citizen and come up with good ideas and be prepared for good debates

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