Saturday, February 02, 2013

NSP's population plan is a better alternative...

It is quite amazing that a few days after the population white paper was released, both Minister Khaw and PM Lee, came out to explain that the 6.5-6.9M population figures are not targets but planning figures to ensure we have capacity for a larger population. This is very hard to accept because a large part entire white paper tries to justify these numbers based on the 3-5% GDP growth they aim to achieve on average in the coming years and tries to allay the fears of overcrowding by saying that we will have sufficient space in the future although we are suffering the overcrowdedness now.

"We may never reach that figure. But as planners, we have to ensure that the infrastructure could accommodate such a figure, if need be," - Khaw Boon Wan[Link]
 
 
So we are now expected to believe the PAP govt will go on to build a city for 6.9M but will resist the temptation to import people to maximise GDP to fill up this capacity. They wlll plan for 600 people to attend a wedding but invite only 400? In the past it was more like planning for 4M people then letting the population grow to 5M. If that was the intention, why wasn't it clearly stated upfront in the population white paper?
 
If you want a paper that focuses on the well being of the people rather than GDP, it will put the fertility rate of Singaporeans as a priority over everything else.  The NSP has written a pretty good one. The factors that affects the fertility rate such as high cost of living (esp housing), transport, overcrowding, medical care and lack of affordable child care services are also the same factors that has also the quality of life in Singapore. Just as I've pointed out in earlier postings, the NSP paper has also correctly pointed out that today's low TFR and support ratios for the old cannot be used as justification for importing more people.

Higher population density affects fertility. In an earlier posting, I showed that the 3 places with highest population density Hong Kong, Macau and Singapore also have the lowest population density[Link]. The NSP report found more evidence of this. By importing foreigners in such large numbers the PAP govt caused our fertility rate to sink further and now proposes to worsen the problem by importing more people putting Singaporeans in a vicious cycle.

- NSP Population Paper[Link]
 
One of the major flaws of the govt white paper was its evidence of an ageing workfore and its OADR (old age dependency ratio)computation  that excluded the existing non-resident workforce - this gave the impression that our is ageing and cannot support the old. But this is not true once we look at the complete picture:
 
 
 - NSP Population Paper[Link]
 
This was a point I made in my earlier posting but the NSP has gone further to work out the numbers to show more concretely that the govt case is flawed.

Importing foreign labor in the past has cause productivity to fall and depressed wages at the lower end. It also caused strains on our infrastructure and our quality of life to deteriorate. Instead of telling us how to get off this unhealthy path of GDP growth, the PAP govt tries harder to justify staying on the same course.  You tell me ...is it any surprise that trust in the govt is lost?
 
 

131 comments:

Anonymous said...

...NSP has go further to work out the numbers to show more concretely that the govt case is flawed."
Lucky Tan

Unfortunately, just like WP, NSP also said they are not ready to be government. And worse than WP because they have no seats in Parliament.

Govt case is flawed? So? Many netizens, and not just NSP, also said what.

Anonymous said...

It is also a matter of who you are, and not just your views.

So be the right "who" to make your views matter.

Anonymous said...

After becoming the right "who", your views may also change.

So don't forget this can happen.

Anonymous said...

Sacrifice.

Do NS is a sacrifice.

7 million population and overcrowding is a sacrifice.

View this way, it will not be flawed and even become logical.

Anonymous said...

Why WP so quiet on the Population White Paper?

Anything to do with their by election win?

Anonymous said...

The OADR never mentioned the unique Singapore situation that the gov do nothing much for the old folks, and expecting the family to provide and their accumulated CPF to perform magic.

Anonymous said...

Doesn't matter lay, so long as 54.52% increase to 60% tio bo? Then we will have 90 MPs with a strong PAP core.

Anonymous said...

Yah loh. Don't anyhow AIM.

Lye Khuen Way said...

So NSP has put up a better Paper. SDP had earlier put up proposals on Medical and Housing.
What about our most "sucessful" opposition party, the WP ?

"Don't say,I want to say, but I must say", can the WP be more vocal on this White Paper debate scheduled on Monday, 4th Feb in Parliament?



Anonymous said...

2001: 75%-25%

2006: 67%-33%

2011: 60%-40%

2016: ?

JewelleryDesignServices Rhinojewelcaddesignmatrix said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...

NSP OADR calculation stopped at 2012. Can someone do the oadr for 2030 population - see how different it is from today?

SPK said...

I've read the NSP paper..i agree they have put up a very good, thoughtful analysis here! I'm really impressed, and I hope the citizens will start paying attention to them in the next GE. Definitely a party to watch for.

Also agree with above writer, regarding WP . This is critical moment we face as a nation, and I expect them to put up a very robust objections and debate in the parliament next week, no less!

DOE admin said...

Honestly, I don't know what it means to be Singaporean anymore. 6.9M is just another number; and I am pretty numbed as far depressing statistics (concerning the average citizen that is) are concerned.

Anonymous said...

Chart 3.1 in the Population White Paper shows that in 2030, the number of PMET will be almost double that of non-PMET. What are the additional 400k PMET jobs that will employ SC workers? Can we see them now?

Recently, there was some governmental efforts to encourage Singaporeans to become hawkers.
Our 5th university has started to roll out graduate chefs. Are some of the presently non-PMET jobs reclassify as PMET jobs in the future?

The White Paper is short on crucial details.

Anonymous said...

The Pro Alien Party is a one trick pony.
They only know how to cook from LKY's numerous books.

And when did LKY learn to cook?
1965 that's when.
And LKY had a lot of very good assistant chefs back then.

Things change.
But LKY and PAP remain unchanged.

This is not a white paper on population.
It's a white paper on achieving an economic growth rate of 3-5% using the only method PAP knows how;
Cheaper & Faster.
PAP does not know Better.

They only know how to make Singaporeans work harder for less pay.

Anonymous said...

Never ever believe or trust the papists again. They have lied over the last 50+ years.

Anonymous said...

/// Honestly, I don't know what it means to be Singaporean anymore. ///

Come on.
Didn't you feel Singaporean when Workers' Party won the Punggol East elections.

Vote Opposition and start feeling like a born again Singaporean.

See 2 minute video below.
Learn how to feel proud to be Singaporean again.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=emj61bT3lvU

Anonymous said...

@ ANON: 2/2/13 22:40

Wow! You were not kidding.
This is even better than the Kallang Roar!
This is the Hougang Battle Cry of Freedom!

Workers' Party win Punggol East elections.
Hougang celebrates. Incredible.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Ia7mKh7CDA

Hougang. Defenders of Singaporean freedom and identity.

Anonymous said...

It is more likely that while PAP is planning for 6.9 million population by 2030,
but in the year 2030,
PAP will tell all Singaporeans that PAP are surprised that PAP has far exceed the target and the actual population in 2030 is 8.6 million.

Please believe that PAP is great planner and PAP will continue to tell Singaporeans in 2030 that PAP has foresight to plan for 11.2 million population by 2050.

In 2050, PAP will tell Singaporeans that PAP is surprised that PAP has far exceed the target and the actual population in 2050 is 14 million.

Please believe that PAP is great planner. PAP will continue to tell Singaporeans in 2050 that PAP has foresight to plan for 18.2 million population by 2070.

In 2070, PAP tells Singaporeans that PAP is surprised that PAP has far exceed the target and the population in 2070 is 22.8 million.

And the story of population target always far exceed what the PAP planned goes on and on. As usual, PAP are always surprised and PAP always ask Singaporeans to believe PAP.

But PAP never keep to their promise.
How can Singaporeans believe in PAP?

Anonymous said...

How can Singaporeans believe in PAP?
Anon 2/2/13 23:03

Do you have a better choice not to believe?

If not, then pray for PAP to get it right lah.

Anonymous said...

Yes, a prayer helps when you cannot control or help yourself.



Anonymous said...

Of course. They even say Hong Kong has a higher population density than Singapore. Only after further probing that they clarify that they are using NET density. How to trust them when they are not honest and truthful to begin with.

Anonymous said...

Ok go read this article link.
If we put all the dots together ...this is becoming very clear.

In 1991, Concept Plan’s ‘planning scenario’= 4m
2001 Concept Plan’s ‘planning scenario’ = 5.5m
2005, MBT said planning scenario = 6.5m
2013 KBW said planning scenario = 6.9m

So if you go by 2001 plan, they have planned for 5.5m and now we are only at 5.3m and the infrastructure is already collapsing.

Now they are trying to fudge around the fig between 6.5 & 6.9m, plus there is another 8m figure floating around. So please ask yourself people, if they already knew to plan for 5.5m way back in 2001 (a looong 13 years ago, even before we our TFR rate was not so low) what do you think it's really going on here? Is IT really just about replacing the Babies and blaming Sinkies not having them? OR is it just about jacking up more GDP for digit growths? The number has been increasing year over year...and it wont stop until they reach that 8 freaking million!!!

WAKE UP! Facebook your MP and demand they speak against the proposition!! Or 2016 will not save anyone here

http://therealsingapore.com/content/pm-lee-i-fully-agree-khaw’s-explanation-69m-just-worst-case-scenario

Anonymous said...

You can believe that the Workers Party is not ready to be govt.

Your belief will be correct, no need to pray to wish otherwise.

Anonymous said...

The PAP government cannot get more wrong than it has already been wrong.

Anonymous said...

/// You can believe that the Workers Party is not ready to be govt. ///

It does not matter.
We will be voting for them anyway.

Under PAP, we know there is no more hope.
Under WP, if we don't try, we will never know.

Voting Opposition is like making love.
It get's easier with practice.
Since GE 2011, it has been getting easier ... tio bo?

Anonymous said...

"Unfortunately, just like WP, NSP also said they are not ready to be government. And worse than WP because they have no seats in Parliament."

You never heard of the Art of Wars ? Go and read the book, understand it and you get wiser that WP is smart after all.

Anonymous said...

I have reservation that the 6.9mil population for 2030 is for planning purposes. I do not think this govt will spend the money to build the infrastructures to accomodate 6.9mil but only expect 5mil inhabitants to use it. So HDB will finally have surplus housing for Singaporeans? And public housing will finally be genuinely affordable? I do not trust this govt!

Anonymous said...

Lucky Tan,
It is beyond doubt that the white paper will be passed as the PAP are a majority in parliament. Now, how do citizens who oppose the white paper demand that the government hold a national referendum on the matter. Is there anywhere in the constitution that allow citizens to make such a demand and if there is, how do they proceed.

Anonymous said...

The MRT system for 7m are expected to be ready by 2030. No guarantee.

No work has started on reclamation and the building of all the things which are needed to accommodate the extra 1.7 million. The reclamation alone will take at least a decade. The govt is still desperately building for the 2 million already here.

Does this mean that the extra 1.7m will have to squash in with us? Share our already cramped and crowded quarters in the meantime?

How is it that the White Paper makes no mention of how it will provide Water, Food and Power (Electricity)? Will we have to share what we now have of these three as well? Will there be enough to go around? And what if there is a shortage or a hitch in importing food and water?

Anonymous said...

I agree, any logical person with half a brain will understand the case being put up by NSP, it is easy to understand because it is logical.

On the other hand, one aspect of the PAP white paper is absolutely self-serving which no one has brought up: there is almost a holy untouchable desire to cling to a minimum of 3% GDP. The reason is that 3% is the minimum GDP to hit before GDP bonus is paid to top civil servants.

This is remarkable to me because only last November, LHL has publicly and over many interviews locally and overseas (in NZ visit for example) said that as the singapore economy matures GDP will slow to 2-3% and he qualified this range as "good". Have doubts? Read this article:
http://www.china.org.cn/world/Off_the_Wire/2012-12/03/content_27293042.htm

So why a sudden push to cling onto the higher growth target of 3% to 5% again of the past decade? Well the answer is 2 groups are pushing for FT import very hard:

1) senior civil servants refuse to give up the 3% target because it is the minimum threshold to achieve before GDP bonus is paid of course, and

2) the businesses and property developers who are VERY STRONGLY resisting any slowdown in FT import because they will lose the low cost labour from which most of their profits come from - at the expense of the local workforce. And porperty prices will lose the buying power of the new FT.

And of course there is also a group tightly linked to PAP in the form of ex-MPs businessmen like those AIM folks living in good class bungalows, next to the businessmen billionaires who act as bridge between PAP and business.

The PAP is like a puppet - pushed to the corner one day by voters, then pushed back by strong moneyed interests and a self-serving civil service. Not very healthy leeders are dithering every other day. I wonder whether LTK and his WP colleagues will put up a better show or just be supportive again? Voters will be watching.

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Anonymous said...

It kinda reminds me just before the downfall of the Qing dynasty.. the emperor wants to change but the officials resist the change because of self interests...

Anonymous said...

The way the government is handling this does not inspire confidence.

Anonymous said...

The white paper is silent on what happens if TFR drops further due to the higher population density. DPM Teo Chee Hean admitted that new citizens and PRs hv even lower TFR than S'poreans.

Would the proportion of S'poreans drop from the forecat figure of 55% in 2030 to below 50% if TFR drops further?? What then? Iport vn more foreigners??

One thing is for sure. The PAP govt NEVER give us anything for free. If they build u infrastructure for 6.9m people, u can bet your ass that PAP will definitely increase the population to 6.9m

Anonymous said...

PAP knows that WP would be too busy integrating Pinggol East town council, so it has quickly issued the white paper. PAP is giing WP less than one week to prepare or parliamentary debate on this issue. pAP is rushing this thru Parliament so as to minimise any real debate. One has to wonder why the PAP is doing this when i claims to be "on the side of S'poreans"???

Anonymous said...

Remember the arsehole doctor who "solved" the ponding problem at Punggol East.
He picked up the leaves and threw them just a few feet away (to be washed back to clog the drains again later on).
This is reflective of PAP's problem solving style.
They don't address the fundamental cause ... the dead leaves.

The fundamental cause of Singapore's declining population is the Total Fertility rate.
NOT the rate of immigration.

If you want to solve Singapore's declining population.
You have to vote Opposition.
It's pretty apparent that only the Opposition parties can see the fundamental cause.

Our ruling party is like the 3 monkeys.
See no problem.
Hear no problem.
Do no problem.

Anonymous said...

Since when did the PAP become so generous? Plan for 6.9 million but expect a smaller population. If they are sincere about this, then may I suggest that they abolish BTO flats and just build flats on standby and let citizens apply and move in immediately like in the past.

The reason they change to BTO was to transfer the holding COST of unsold flats to Singaporeans. So now they are changing their tune and saying that the government is willing to build infrastructure which may be under-utilized.

I thought that every project under PAP must be self funding because every time opposition parties suggest any welfare to benefit Singaporeans, they will ask the question, "Where is the money?".

Singaporeans may be angry with PAP but we are certainly not STUPID!

Lucky Tan said...

The PAP is really dropping the ball in so many areas and losing support so quickly it is actually spooking the WP so much so Low has to come out to say give the PAP more time and the WP is not ready to form the govt many mistake this for humility but they really fear a messy hand off that is no good for anyone .What I fear is not the passing of this white paper or the execution Singaporeans already have enough and in 2016 will put a stop to all this nonsense if the PAP dares to execute the plan on the white paper. I hope we don't end up with just 2 bad options on GE2016....it is still best for the PAP to wake up and fix itself or are a gradual erosion until some one else can take over

Anonymous said...

43%-55%

lim said...

Don't ever believe in the white paper now!

If you look back in 1996, PAP said they will built Punggol into Punggol 21 town center and come 1998 financial crisis, the whole punggol town was shaft and it takes another 15 years to see what punggol it is today.

We can protest and protest now the government will go ahead and in f years time when next Crisis hit, the 6.9 million population will be the next phase of growth and they probably will builg two more casinos and bring in another 1 million FT to bost th economy.

So protest now, the PAP will slow down in 2016 GE and then the cycle of crisis come 2018, everybody will keep quiet with property down 30% to 40% and cut in CPF, and using 2021 GE to win back some votes and starts the next cycle of next 1 million imports.

Ha ha ha History repeat itself, one way or another in another form but the end results is the same we may end up with 7.3 million people in 2030!(like now 5.3 million)

Anonymous said...

PAP just comitted suicide. Singapore refuses to commit suicide.

Just to let you know- I used to vote for PAP. Will I continue? What is your guess.

Anonymous said...

Dear PAPigs
You may have to vote in a new Secretary General before GE 2016 if you want to keep your million dollar salaries and $2 companies.

Anonymous said...

@ Lucky Tan, I disagree with your comment. PAP must go, ASAP. The longer they stay on to power, the more they will damage our country.

Whether WP is ready or not is not the real issue. Let's not spread fear of a regime change. The change, though disruptive, is needed for the long-term good of the country.

On the short-term, economy may dip, but as long as it is a peaceful change through democratic process, I have confidence that WP can take over just like how PAP did during the tumultuous period.

What more, the infrastructure is there, making the takeover process easier.

LAI said...

From a commentator , LAI (repost here)

Year ... Total (000) ...RESI ... Citizen ... PR ... ... Foreigners
1970 ... 2,074.5 ... 2,013.6 ... 1,874.9 ... 138.8 ..... 60.9
1980 ... 2,413.9 ... 2,282.1 ... 2,194.3 ... 087.8 ... 131.8
1990 ... 3,047.1 ... 2,735.9 ... 2,735.9 ... 112.1 ... 311.2
2000 ... 4,027.9 ... 3,273.4 ... 2,985.9 ... 287.5 ... 754.5
2010 ... 5,076.7 ... 3,771.7 ... 3,230.7 ... 541.0 ... 1,305.0
2011 ... 5,183.7 ... 3,789.3 ... 3,789.3 ... 532.0 ... 1,394.4

Let's mkae a guesstimate here for between 2010 and 2011 where there are 558,600 new citizens.

Assuming 40,600 babies are borned and 10,000 death = 30,600 native borned SIngaporeans.

Newly-minted Singaporeans = 558,600 - 30,600 = 528,000 no.

Between 1990 to 2000, there is only an increase of 250,000 no. SIngpaoreans.
Between 2000 to 2010, there is only an increase of 244,800 no. Singaporeans.

Or very consistent at an average of 24,000 to 25,000 babies + newly-minted SIngaporeans.

Why within ONE YEAR, there are 528,000 "SIngaporeans" where it took us 20 years (1990 to 2010) to produce 494,800 new citizens?

Anonymous said...

Since Millionaire Ministers' salaries are tied to GDP growth;

The best case scenario would be; 12 million.
Mid-case scenario: 10 million.
Worse case scenario: 7 million.

Hope for the best.
Plan for the worst.

Anonymous said...

What is a white paper?
See Wikipedia below:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_paper

A white paper is definitely not a worst case planning scenario.

Anonymous said...

I understand why LTK said what he said.
But in real life, sometimes abit of messiness is acceptable.
Do you think when we were booted out of Malaya, PAP has any experience running a city, let alone a country?!
Do you think they have time tobe handed over on a silver plate , where everything is "sui sui"?!
Don't give excuse that WP has only 1 week to prepare and debate the White paper...every opposition party has already come out and commented /said something about it, including the angry citizens.
So if they can't just roll with the punch, and act swiftly, then they really have to think harder. et, I have faith they will rise to the occasion, and not let the voters now.
Sometimes, is not up to him to choose the perfect timing...of course, if everyone can have their way, things should be nicely handed over. But if you look at how PAP is going into a lawless arrogant state, with disregards to its citizens, there's no time to pussyfoot around for the "perfect timing"!! The universe will give you/everyone a lessons -- especially when you've been so used to comfort, stability and resisting change. Take it from above, the signs are very clear. Singaporeans must realize, the is not about a particular party nor coming from a particular party. Is the <People Action" for/by themselves for the nation and country they love, defend and where our ancestors settle our roots for!

If Tan Chuan Jin wants to say...your grandfather are also migrants, they come here to make money...tell him, Yes..that's how they started..and how we settled our roots and call it home/country. Let's be very clear, if TCH wants to run this place like a city and care for only GDP - why don't he and NEH go tell ALL our NS boys - You are here to defend the CITY, not the COUNTRY!! I dare them to say that loud and clear! And truth be told, if the nation are truly turnign out ah boys to ah men, then let us hear all the real MEN ROAR against this god damn plan!!

Anonymous said...

I wonder when Tan Chuan Jin summarily deported the china drivers back home, if he ever asked himself this..had his grandparents been treated the same way by the British/Sg govt at that time, the way he's treating the workers now, whether he would still be standing here playing a Minister of Manpower!

Anonymous said...

Hazel Poa, wherever you are, thank you very much. You are one of the wisest and considerate Singaporean politician that we respect.

Anonymous said...

Lucky, I absolutely disagree with your fear of a messy change in power. U r still hoping for the impossible. The pap is incapable of CHANGE. Lee Kuan Yew has inoculated the pap with his ultra-capitalist DNA. They will rather lose power than to accommodate the wishes and cater to needs of Singaporeans. To them the Singaporean way is the surest way to destroy the Lee Kuan Yew's legacy.
It is better for Singaporeans to pay the price for a real change than to cling onto the impossible hope that the pap will change.
It is not difficult to govern Singapore. The new power can always appoint professional expert committee to advise the ministers like American Presidents.

Anonymous said...

Lucky Tan, what you are doing is better than serving NS and reservist duty.

Anonymous said...

This is a strategy to change the media attention from losing a 2 by-elections to this issue. They are diverting bad publicity on losing power to bad publicity on population growth. The lesser of 2 evils. It's all about money and public relations management.

Anonymous said...

The PAP plan a city
but lose a country.
F.

Anonymous said...

http://humyeefansang.blogspot.com

Blooding good rant from our neighbor...hear it from the foreigners mouths. If PAP thinks "If we build it they will come.." ..well, good luck.

Anonymous said...

GWEEK said it best - Make the Same Mistake again, But do it Better!

http://gweek.tumblr.com
--

Let’s make sure that we are hearing it right. Our esteemed Gahmen considers an aging population to be a serious problem. Its solution is overpopulation, which it considers to be the worst-case scenario. That’s not problem-solving; that’s problem-swapping. It’s like warming a drafty house by setting it on fire. Surely, the burden of proof is on the Gahmen to convince us that it is harder to live with conditions of the first than with conditions of the second.

This demand leads us to remember two more points. One, we don’t know yet whether an old population will be a problem and, if it is, whether it is something that cannot right itself with time. But we KNOW that overpopulation is a real problem and one we have been struggling unsuccessfully with for years. We are still experiencing it now, and most of our social problems today are related one way or another to it.

Second, we don’t know whether or not our Gahmen can solve the question of age by another means or at least help us cope with its outcome. But we KNOW that our Gahmen cannot solve the troubles created by overpopulation and cannot help the people cope with them. So why precisely aggravate the problem one cannot handle? Why take a route we know we cannot solve in favour over any other route we don’t know yet whether or not we can solve?

Anonymous said...

Are you going to let a Pro Alien Traitor "represent" you in Parliament, and vote in more aliens to take your children's job?

Enough is enough.
Vote them out!

Anonymous said...

Either we vote out these Pro Alien Traitors or they will drive our children to emigrate to other countries.
Did we work so hard only to lose our children because we are so scared of voting out these Pro Alien Traitors?

We've got nothing left to lose!
Traitors OUT.
$2 companies OUT.

Anonymous said...

Here are the proper definitions that the Pro Alien Traitors did not want to explain:

A parliamentary "GREEN Paper" is also called "consultation documents".

A parliamentary "WHITE paper" performs the dual role of presenting firm government policies while at the same time inviting opinions upon them.

A White Paper is not a worse case planning scenario. It is firm government policy.

SOURCE:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_paper

Anonymous said...

You only see grey....your elites are still drunk.....your subsequent generations are of weaker substance....yet you aim ....high

Minghui Kuok said...

The entire justification for the White Paper is all about the worst case scenario. The entire problem is not about whatever policies a decade or so back. It's actually the society's failure to evolve even though there are policies trying to reverse the trend.

And when I say society, it's not just about the software (i.e. the people). We're talking about the hardware affect the software (i.e. whatever Lucky has pointed out). Simply put, what we're being shown in the White Paper is no different from the people upstairs throwing the towel and that's why the netizens and citizens are up in arms. They know that it's a suck thumb scenario caused by a chronic lack of socio-policy evolution. And the scariest fact is that no matter how much land we are able to reclaim in the future, the entire population layout can easily create a second Western nation where immigration is concerned. This has nothing to do with any of the migrants personally because they, like us are out to earn a living beyond their own shores (India is a very good example on why there is a major brain drain all the while).

Yet, it will also create a constant turnover rate where friction will be sustained or even exacerbated.

Case in point: People tend to say that the late literature great H.P Lovecraft was a racist, but if there's anything to go by, Lovecraft's issue was never about skin colour, but rather the very fact that he felt the migrants were no doing enough to assimilate themselves into the US society.

Anonymous said...

This gabrament always say no land for old folks home. Have you included land for the projected 900,000 old folks?

No, right? We old folks are going to give you 900,000 kicks at every election.

$ face. Give land to build expensive foreigner condo, and no land for old folks.

Anonymous said...

"but rather the very fact that he felt the migrants were no doing enough to assimilate themselves into the US society."

it takes at least two generations for any new comers to melt away nicely into another culture of their adopted new home - which means at least 30 years onwards. call it assimilation or reverse-assimilation by the natives of the home country or most probably a good mixture of both with the balance skewed mostly to the latter. 1st-generation is always hardwired with their own set beliefs & practices of their home upbringing.

We had two-child policy more than 30 years - and whether it is the cause of the the present low TFR - just look at the tension that the policy makers are trying to rectify the situation, strangely not enough for them even at the current level of 5+ million population - and it's anyone's guess behind the real intention that they want (or over plan for) such a high number at 6.9million.

Anonymous said...

"Anonymous said...@ Lucky Tan, I disagree with your comment. PAP must go, ASAP. The longer they stay on to power, the more they will damage our country."

You don't reward someone for making major screw-ups and hope that they will change their leopard's spots. You just change or remove them and all doubts for yourselves and themselves - though it is a delicate (messy) transitioning process that Lucky may be alluded.

Even if something turns out bad for any succeeding players, please bear in mind it is the very system created that has been deliberately put in place to produce such results (e.g AIM and the massive GLC machinery).

Anonymous said...

Conservative MBT is better? When the Cow gives, he floods you and drowns you?

Anonymous said...

PAP is losing the heart of the real FT's too, and FAST!!! Most true FT's are decent people and they know that a government who only look after their own pocket and not their people has got no future. They too wouldn't want their children to be constrained by such self serving government, would they?

Anonymous said...

Lucky, you wrote " I showed that the 3 places with highest population density Hong Kong, Macau and Singapore also have the lowest population density" .... The sentence doesn't seem logical ... Honest mistake?

Anonymous said...

Is the holy cow; a lying deaf frog in disguise?

Anonymous said...

Hi Lucky,

Any handover of power will be messy when you have a regime like PAP running the country for so long.

It had come to a point where Singaporean will have to "bite the bullet".

Enough is enough, just kick them out, any delay could even cause more damage in the long run.

The actual problem is whether the handover will be a peaceful one, this will be a main concern.

Anonymous said...

There are so many serious faults in this plan.

On the macro level, it wipes out original Singaporeans. We will form only one third of the population.

On the micro level, it is hopeless in maintaining any life quality. All the big green areas are army/ reserve areas that few people go. It is a concrete jungle.

Anonymous said...

Of cos WP and NSP will say they are not ready to form gov. If they say they are ready, tomorrow they will be ISA. Anyway, when is PAP ready? Even after 50years, they are also not really ready. Just look at the screw-ups they created, they are still a bunch of "beer-swilling bourgeois".

Anonymous said...

Better vote them out before they sell every state owned thingy to $2 AIM companies.

Anonymous said...

One day, you will wake up and realise your transport system is owned by a $2 company. Do Not Vote for Pussy Action Party.

Anonymous said...

How can place you trust to a gov that anyhow sell state owned thingy to $2 companies?

Anonymous said...

PAP said they are planning for worst case scenario of 7 million population.

But what happen if it become 10 million, worse than worst case scenario? Possible, right?

Look at the type of foreign "talents" we are getting now. Not only fail to control quality, even quantity also cannot control.

Like that sure become worse than worst case in future what.



Anonymous said...

Don't think PAP would handover power laying down.

Peaceful handover would be a concern.

Singaporean will have to prepare for the "worst case scenario".

Anonymous said...

Whether 7 million or 10 million population, we can only get the best available foreigners in order to make up the numbers.

That's the scary part - "best available" to make up the numbers.

Because we are totally at God's mercy of what is "best available".

So pray that the "best available" is really the best.

Anonymous said...

If the foreigners imported are really the best then the locals better be prepared to work as janitors and maids. The better looking ones can work in the vice industry. And that will be the fate our rulers will consign us to.

Anonymous said...

You should be asking, what happens after mass old age?

Rapture?

Anonymous said...

I think WP is going to debate about this next week. There's no need to criticise WP until we hear what they have to say in Parliament. Of course WP and NSP are not ready to govern - they don't even contest in every constituency - not even close to 50% - not enough quality people to govern. But things are slowly and surely changing, and more capable people are joining the opposition. And I hope one day, WP can contest in every ward and be ready to govern, if they secure majority.

Anonymous said...

The main reason the PAP government targets a 6.9 million population is because they want to make as much bonus as possible during their rein. Remember their bonus is tied to GDP. So with massive construction going on, jobs will be created and GDP goes up. By importing people, these people will use facilities, rent houses, buy food etc and again GDP goes up. The easiest way to boost GDP is construction and importing people. And their bonuses and tied to GDP. PAP also know their rein might not be forever, so current MPs and Ministers need to milk as much as they can NOW. HOW? by importing people and make Singapore into one messy construction site.

Anonymous said...

Lucky
I am not sure whether you have been in the civil service or your work experience although I respect your political views.

But I humbly disagree that alternative parties cannot form a govt. I cannot speak for WP's objectives and care less about second guessing a politician who has only ever assumed 1 job besides being a politician and that was to be a teacher.

First it is the civil servants who run the government, not the politicians. No political transition can take place without their cooperation, unless you are telling us you know for certain the civil servants and military would not cooperate.

Second, even if the key heads of departments and perm secs loyal to the PAP refuse to follow the new political directives passed by the new parliament, (a BIG IF, because I do not believe that will happen) there is a deep and patriotic group of retired civil servants who would render service, and a loyal and honest intellectual group like the old Prof and economists like the ex chief economist of GIC ready to replace Tharman (who by the way was an ex-offender jailed, even for a day).

Third, do you know the central banker of the Bank of England is a Canmadian? TAlso that supra organisations like UN, World Bank, IMF, UNESCO are all manned by experienced ex-government officials from all countries, including the UK, Australia, Europe and America? These are all professional bureaucrats, many with far deeper experience than your friendly oxbridge trained scholar perm secs who never held a single other job besides pen-pushing in the ministries in Singapore.

Drucker said "In a storm, the worse thing is not the storm but clinging on to yesterday's logic". Open your minds, people! Yes we can!

Anonymous said...

And the most disgusting is the massaging of number to make our over-crowding situation seems less dire. Singapore has the highest population density in the world http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_density . Singapore population density is 7301 per sqm. Hong Kong is actually better at only 6396 per sqkm. The white paper actually remove all the nature reserves, hilly areas in HK and exclude them as "can be developed" land. Since when are hilly areas not land? The fact that Hong Kong has more such hilly areas and nature areas means their people has more recreation areas for fresh air lah - which means they are less dense. I've never seen such a shameless comparison. And by the way, if Hong Kong wants to build houses on the hills like Victoria Peak - they can as well - just that they prefer to conserve their nature areas.

Anonymous said...

And the most disgusting is the massaging of number to make our over-crowding situation seems less dire. Singapore has the highest population density in the world http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_density . Singapore population density is 7301 per sqm. Hong Kong is actually better at only 6396 per sqkm. The white paper actually remove all the nature reserves, hilly areas in HK and exclude them as "can be developed" land. Since when are hilly areas not land? The fact that Hong Kong has more such hilly areas and nature areas means their people has more recreation areas for fresh air lah - which means they are less dense. I've never seen such a shameless comparison. And by the way, if Hong Kong wants to build houses on the hills like Victoria Peak - they can as well - just that they prefer to conserve their nature areas.

Anonymous said...

YES WE CAN!

What will I be losing if PAP cannot form the government after GE 2016?

My Swiss standard of living?
My secure PMET job?
My retirement job as a cleaner?
My old age home in Johor?
My overcrowded MRT train that keeps breaking down?
My national service obligations?

This is all about our children.
Did we suffer so much to bring up our children just to hand them over to the PIGS for more discrimination and suffering as adult Singaporeans?
In our own country?

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Anonymous said...

Once a government becomes involved in “running” an economy, it invariably ends up running it into the ground. The only variables in this process are how long it takes and how prostrate a given economy becomes by the end of it. Because it always ends - sooner or later. Rational economic theory provides abundant proof of WHY this is the case. Economic and political history is absolutely unanimous in their verdict that it always DOES take place. There is no escape from this truth, no matter how many people wish it were not so and how fervently they ignore the evidence of their eyes and their brains.

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eremarf said...

Hi Lucky Tan, I was browsing the Naked Capitalism blog as usual and found these relevant articles friends here might be interested in – can I put them here, please?

About worker-retiree ratios vs productivity growth in the US (productivity growth tends to outpace worker-retiree ratio changes based on US historical data – but uninformed Americans aren’t getting the right data from either the (subverted!) press or policy makers!):
http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/beat-the-press/ezra-klein-srikes-out-big-on-immigration-and-demographics

Empirical survey of immigration’s impact on different demographics in the US – analyses and data that we sorely lack in Singapore:
http://www.epi.org/publication/bp255/

I don't mean to get all obsessed with the growth/economics perspective when you're raising very good points about non-GDP metrics, e.g. quality of life, local culture, etc. And I fully support that! But I think it's also important to show people that the economic costs aren't as high as propaganda makes it out to be. Productivity growth isn't as hard to obtain as we think (based on historical data) - but anyone who profits from the status quo (i.e. low-labour-productivity situations, like many business owners today, many who have invested in and cultivated close ties to the political establishment), will not welcome uncertain futures (better a bird in the hand than two in the bush, right?).

It's a tragedy of the commons situation here (the commons being the nature of our labour market - productive or not? labour or capital intensive?). Private pursuit of so-called "rational" self-interest by businesses deters productivity improvements in society at large. And I support the textbook solution in such cases - gov't intervention to protect the commons! Businesses who look long-term should welcome this too - it expands the size of the pie rather than fighting for bigger shares of the old small pie.

BTW Lucky - seems to be a typo here - maybe someone else has already pointed this out, but here it is anyway: "the 3 places with highest population density Hong Kong, Macau and Singapore also have the lowest population density".

Cheers and take care. :-)

Anonymous said...

Singapore was like a small boat in an ocean, forever wanting to move ahead of bigger ships around it.

Our first leader LKY said, let’s get the boat moving with 100 crews. Anyone who tried to add more baby crews will be penalized because it will sink the boat.

Our 2nd Leader GCT said we are moving less faster than bigger ship, we need to catch up or drown in the tidal wave, so he allow more cheap crews into the boat and it moved ahead of many ships and our leader was so proud but our people became exhausted in a packed boat with no room nor place to breed.

Resentment and anger started to build up but our leader no knows compassion. Khaw Boon Wan threatened to throw the old crews into the sea (by shipping them to Johor or Batam) to avoid stressing the boat or rather the boat has no place for the the old. He created uproar of anguish in Singapore

Than many heroes among the crews and leaders stepped out and suggested we use power machines to steer the boat instead of relying on more cheap crews. All these people foresee relying on crews may steer the boat faster, in the name of GDP, but it cannot sustain the size of boat and frightened the existing Singaporeans from producing more baby crews. Lim Swee Say said, less crews will create less jobs for other crew. He became the next clown beside Khaw Boon Wan.

The 3rd leader LHL stood out and denied all the problems brought out to him. He sees no wrong until his leadership dwindled, he apologized to be given 2nd chance at the last wastershed GE.

Today, LHL on white paper said aloud, they will double the crew size by another 30% because nobody want to produce baby crews. Everyone know, except PAP, that this little red boat is certainly going to sink if we keep packing our boat with cheap labour, instead of relying on productivity. His ear was light and prone to listening to blacksheeps, , mostly from SMEs and RC people, who were not creative and not receptive to new ideas.

By now, we have to believe PAP is not a very responsible party. We and our children are held in ransom by this dangerous PAP, without innovations and creativity to help Singapore prosper and eventually they reaped the reward of our hardwork and not distributed to its people.

Come next election, I am going to throw PAP out of the boat to have a peace of mind and I urge everyone to do likewise with great faith that Singaporeans can still steer Singapore without needing PAP to hinder ours and our children survival.

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eremarf said...

@Anonymous 4/2/13 00:30, "Once a government becomes involved in “running” an economy, it invariably ends up running it into the ground..."

Bro, thanks for your contribution but I think most of us here are well-informed enough to know your sweeping generalizations don't hold up well in the real world. If you need help, I'm sure some reader or Lucky Tan himself can help you.

But let me give you a few quick tips before bedtime:

1. Re: "Because it always ends - sooner or later" - Bro, law of entropy here. Nothing lasts forever. Like you say yourself - history shows this. So you're right that "it always ends". My problem is that you ascribe this feature to when "government becomes involved in "running" an economy". Doesn't this ALWAYS happen to ANY economy? Gov't run or not?

2. Rational economic theory - I'm sorry I don't know of this so-called theory. Are you talking about Classical Economics a la Adam Smith? Or the dominant kind of economists around today i.e. neoliberal economists? Who argue that when people behave according to their rational self-interests, you get an invisible hand allocating resources perfectly? And that gov't actions distort markets?

Well, sorry to burst your bubble, but this notion has been discredited from many perspectives. Psychology (e.g. Kahnemann and Tversky, about framing of problems), Keynesian Economics (about austerity vs stimulus and how it affects optimism/pessimism about the economy), critiques from within the Neoclassical Econs framework (e.g. Stiglitz and Akerlof about information assymetry, Akerlof re: lemons/fraud, about classic market failures, e.g. the commons problem, externalization of costs e.g. pollution, congestion, etc, monopolies, etc.)

BTW it's also rational to make use of slave and child labour, but it clashes with ethics, so we've outlawed them. Government involvement in economies to solve ethical problems - shouldn't those be allowed? (Trust me - if you don't have laws banning these - so-called "rational" people will do it. I mean - look at how some Singaporeans treat their maids or foreign workers!)

3. You make a bunch of claims but present no proof. When I used to teach I told my students to watch out for these bald unsubstantiated claims. Please bring evidence along next time, ok?

So, to sum up - governments should get involved in economies in the right way. Government action can wreck economies (e.g. austerity in Europe now, leading to underinvestment in health and education, brain drain, etc), even lead to wars! (e.g. austerity in Germany leading to Hitler's election). Government action can also improve economies, e.g. by solving commons problems (e.g. building mass public transit - where benefits like reduced congestion and pollution are externalised from consumers, and benefit non-consumers too.)

The debate should be about what policies are good - not about whether we should have policies.

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patriot said...

Correction to the Comment.

The National Solidarity Party contested in MOST of the Wards in the Last GE(2011). In fact, it fielded the most candidates and despite having some impressive ones like Nicole Seah and the the Phua Couple. They did get good supports averaging over 40% but none got elected.

Hopefully, in the Next GE, Voters will be wise NOT TO PUT ALL THE POWER TO ONE PARTY OR ONE MAN.

ALWAYS BE MINDFUL THAT ABSOLUTE POWER CORRUPTS ABSOLUTELY.

patriot

Anonymous said...

@ patriot @ 9.42am

"Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely. Great men are almost always bad men."
Lord Acton

Dear patriot
The complete quote by Lord Acton contains two warnings.
Firstly, that power corrupts.
Secondly, be suspicious of all great men.

Singaporeans & Asians tend to worship and follow "great" men with unquestioned blind loyalty.

Western democracies seemed to have learnt their lessons after Hitler and Mussolini in World War 2.

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Anonymous said...

1) I do not agree to the pap govt raiding our national reserves to build public amenities and housings for new citizens who have not contributed to Singapore building !

2) I do not agree that just be working here for a while means someone has contributed to Nation building !

3) I do not agree to the pap govt giving our land away to foreigners to entice them to become new citizens !

4) I do not agree to the pap govt using the above methods to buy votes !

5) I do not agree to pap govt turning true blue singaporeans into minority in their only land !

6) I do not agree to them selling away our country !

7) I do not agree with their rubbish white(wash) paper !

8) We want a Referendum on these!

Anonymous said...

The opposition must first be united as one party and contest 100% seats in order to form the government.

Never mind if some of their MPs are just ordinary Ah Bengs and Ah Lians.

Because it is the civil service runs the government, not the politicians.

The politicians only set the objectives and direction, perhaps with some experts.

So I would say WP can still form the government if they can contest 100% seats at the next elections. I will still give my vote to their ordinary Ah Beng or Ah Lian who have no criminal record.

Anonymous said...

Nothing wrong with an Ah Beng or Ah Lian MP as long as they are good people willing to work hard and serve the interest of the people.

But they must also be willing to get expert help where necessary in setting policies.

Anonymous said...

The emphasis of the govt tends be on farming the ground than killing sacred cows. The end result is a vast majority of struggling class under the weight of gold in the hands of privilege few.

How long will this last?

Anonymous said...

WP does not need to contest 100% of the seats.
As long as any coalition of political parties can command a majority of seats in parliament, they can form the government.

So anything is possible;
WP-SDP coalition
WP-PAP coalition
or even SDP-PAP coalition government

The worst outcome is the PAP coalition of deaf & dumb politicians.

Anonymous said...

Ah Nan passed away age 52
Retired BG Dr. Lim passed away 62..

So do you want to believe pap telling us that 50% singaporeans will be living pass age 80?

Anonymous said...

One big graveyard. Where does that leave luxuries?

Anonymous said...

Better not get people into big debts or drink too much luxurious cow milk

Anonymous said...

But the stupid cow is churning out more luxurious milking tits to entice perverts

Hazel Poa Koon Koon said...

Dear Lucky,
I have been following your blog for many years now. I still remember the "culture shock" I had when I first read your posts. They opened up a whole new perspective and forced me to re-think many of the things I had taken for granted. I wish to thank you personally for what you have done for me, and, I am sure, for many others too. You do what nobody else can do. Others in my team are fans too, and I have to tell you, morale is much boosted by your endorsement! There is still much to do, let's each work hard in our respective arenas, and hope for the best!

Hazel Poa Koon Koon said...

Dear Lucky,
I have been following your blog for many years now. I still remember the "culture shock" I had when I first read your posts. They opened up a whole new perspective and forced me to re-think many of the things I had taken for granted. I wish to thank you personally for what you have done for me, and, I am sure, for many others too. You do what nobody else can do. Others in my team are fans too, and I have to tell you, morale is much boosted by your endorsement! There is still much to do, let's each work hard in our respective arenas, and hope for the best!

Hazel Poa Koon Koon said...

To Anon at 3/2/13 11:28,
Paiseh, but thank you for the encouragement. I am but one of many who are sincerely trying very hard to give Singaporeans a real alternative. Give us more time, and I am sure Singapore will be different.

Anonymous said...

Come 2016, I really hope to see these idiots gone: LSS, TCH, KBW and many other useless bootlickers of the same camp, including their master, Pinky.

And I hope to see great people like Nicole Seah, Hazel Poa, YeeJJ, GGiam, VincentW, PaulT, Dr Ang and many other solid candidates in the alternative parties (on top of the 7 WP's MPs) in Parliament.

A big NO to Population White Paper!

Plucky Tam said...

Good luck waiting for the blue PAP to mount a real challenge to the white PAP and actually delivering on their promise of a First World parliament. I know of no opposition party in a First World parliament that is as acquiescent as the Wayang Party.